100d is coming soon

[sandpiper]

https://electrek.co/2016/10/26/elon...odel-3-self-driving-autopilot-100-kwh-battery
Quoting from electrek:
"At the time, Musk said that they plan for “200 packs per week”, but also that he sees the number increasing in the coming months and that demand for the performance (P100D) version of the battery pack will enough to create a backlog for it and therefore, they don’t plan to introduce a non-performance version (100D), which would be cheaper and would have a longer range."

This is just a game. I'm telling you, everything is ready for 100D. They are just trying to keep it as a premium option so that more people would order a P100DL. The numbers will tell us how soon 100D will be released. If they are not satisfied with P100DL orders, they're gonna introduce 100D.
There is also a small chance that newly produced P90Ds to have 100 battery. So that owners can unlock it to P100D.
Future P90D and 90D with AP2, please check your battery stickers and enlighten us.

Before anyone attack me, this is an educated guess.( or maybe not )

I don't think I'd go so far as to call it a game. I'd call it a defensive strategy. They probably are having some challenges ramping up production of the 100 packs. There are challenges in ramping up production for literally anything.

And so they're trying to sustain demand for the 90D while they make the 100 line work properly. They're justifiably concerned that people will defer buying a 90 in favour of waiting for a 100. As seems to be a pattern, there will a short notice announcement in a few months that all current production of 90s are actually 100s, and that the extra 10kwh can be unlocked for a cost.

And that's worth exactly what you paid for it.

 

[msnow]

I don't think I'd go so far as to call it a game. I'd call it a defensive strategy. They probably are having some challenges ramping up production of the 100 packs. There are challenges in ramping up production for literally anything.

And so they're trying to sustain demand for the 90D while they make the 100 line work properly. They're justifiably concerned that people will defer buying a 90 in favour of waiting for a 100. As seems to be a pattern, there will a short notice announcement in a few months that all current production of 90s are actually 100s, and that the extra 10kwh can be unlocked for a cost.

And that's worth exactly what you paid for it.

What "pattern" are you referring to, the 60-75 kw battery? That's just one case so hardly a pattern unless I'm forgetting about others, are there?

 

[sandpiper]

What "pattern" are you referring to, the 60-75 kw battery? That's just one case so hardly a pattern unless I'm forgetting about others, are there?

The 60/75 yes. But other recent upgrades also follow the pattern: the style refresh, AP2.0 and ludicrous mode. In all 3 cases the new product was already on the line at the time of surprise announcement. And with AP2.0 and ludicrous, they software disabled the new feature for confirmed buyers of the prior (lesser) product but allowed the them to enable it at a cost. In all cases, there was no official notice that the feature was coming (but plenty of rumours buzzing).

I expect that the 100D rollout will follow the same pattern. They will ramp up the 100 line and build inventory with any excess production capacity, above demand for the P100D. When the line has stabilized so that they can meet running demand for the 90D, they will shut the 90 line off, switch the 100s in and schedule an announcement that the 100Ds are coming off of the line.

Peering into my crystal ball, I expect it in the first week on January. They're relying on AP2.0 to be a driver for sales in this quarter. They need a driver for Q1 2017.

 

[wdolson]

I'm guessing they won't bother with the locked out battery option at the higher end. That's more to create an entry level car.

Has anyone determined the cell type and count in the P100D yet? How much more does it weigh than an equivalent 90?

Elon has said the cells used in the 100 pack are identical to the 90, but they just crammed more in. I made some guesses as to how many cells here (near the bottom):
Battery Tech Part 2 | Tesla Blitherings

 

[msnow]

Elon has said the cells used in the 100 pack are identical to the 90, but they just crammed more in. I made some guesses as to how many cells here (near the bottom):
Battery Tech Part 2 | Tesla Blitherings

You sure about that? I thought he and Straubel said it was a "redo" of the cooling system not adding more cells.

 

[Dan43]

I can see a Model S100D with new premium seating (say the Model X/P100DL style of air premium seats), AP2.0 and new CPU and OS driving the screen and connectivity being a decent hit for Tesla.
Make the S100D, with options tailored as such, a premium experience, with a top notch quality interior, and it would sell pretty well I believe.

 

[wdolson]

You sure about that? I thought he and Straubel said it was a "redo" of the cooling system not adding more cells.

New Tesla P100D Battery Pack Conceptualized
Tesla Launches Model S P100D & Model X P100D, Up To 315 Miles Range, 60 mph in 2.5 Seconds

All reports say the same cell, just more of them because of the tighter packing and new cooling system.

 

[bob_p]

There is pent up demand for 100s, with prospective buyers (like us) deferring our orders until 100Ds are available. Musk's comments yesterday are likely to encourage more people on the fence for 100s to wait a little longer.

So it seems likely that as soon as they have confidence they can produce the 100s in volume, they'll add those options.

And, unlike the AP 2.0 changeover, they are likely to produce a combination of 90 and 100 cars during a transition period, until they're producing enough 100s to stop 90 battery pack production.

When they've run through their inventory of new 90 battery packs, Tesla could decide to continue selling 90s at that price point (since a 100D might cost more than the current 90D), and software limit 100 battery packs.

Of course, we're all just guessing - though unlikely the broad range of guesses of when AP 2.0 was coming out, we'll probably see P100D (no L) and 100D options available soon.

 

[msnow]

New Tesla P100D Battery Pack Conceptualized
Tesla Launches Model S P100D & Model X P100D, Up To 315 Miles Range, 60 mph in 2.5 Seconds

All reports say the same cell, just more of them because of the tighter packing and new cooling system.

Okay, I don't read architecture and module the same way but it doesn't really matter.

 

[MP3Mike]

Even if it happens, it's not likely to be in November because, if they add the 100D to the design studio now, some people who would normally order the S75D, will order an S100D and then Tesla won't be able to deliver that order in Q4 because they don't have enough packs.

Why would someone switch from an S75D to a S100D? If range was important wouldn't they go for the S90D?

 

[Troy]

@MP3Mike, of course, you are right. In my mind, I had already discontinued the 90 kWh and confused myself there.

 

[tonglaji]

Why would someone switch from an S75D to a S100D? If range was important wouldn't they go for the S90D?

It is not that clear cut. For the price difference of S90D and S75D, I, for one, do not see it as worthwhile to go for S90D. But if the S100D comes in at a comparable price to S90D, then it is a much better argument to go for the longer ranged option.

 

[bob_p]

The 60 and 75 variants are there because those owners don't want to pay for additional range, and prefer to save $$$ rather than buying extra range that they may never use.

The 100 battery packs could have a price increase over the 90 battery packs - they use more battery cells and are evidently more difficult to manufacture.

P100DL costs $20K more than a P90D (non-L). Assuming the L upgrade adds $10K to the price, then Tesla could be planning to charge an additional $10K to go from a 90D to 100D. Add on top of that the $5K increase of AP 1.0 to 2.0, then the longest range Model S, with the latest AP could cost an additional $15K over what a 90D was selling for with AP 1.0. That's over a 15% price increase, and pretty steep.

That could open the door for continuing to offer a 90 battery pack option at the lower price point, even if Tesla eventually uses 100 software limited battery packs.

 

[Xminus6]

I decided to put off the build and delivery of my Model X toward the end of December in the off chance that they'll upgrade the battery. i figure since I already have my S and AEP won't be functional until December, at earliest, I'd just push it off and wait to see what happens with the battery. If they sell me a software-limited 90 in a 100 pack and they want to charge an extra $10k, I'll probably opt not to pay it but take advantage of the ability to charge the 90 to 100%.

 

[msnow]

I decided to put off the build and delivery of my Model X toward the end of December in the off chance that they'll upgrade the battery. i figure since I already have my S and AEP won't be functional until December, at earliest, I'd just push it off and wait to see what happens with the battery. If they sell me a software-limited 90 in a 100 pack and they want to charge an extra $10k, I'll probably opt not to pay it but take advantage of the ability to charge the 90 to 100%.

You should just wait for it even if it's past December. I would.

 

[Troy]

I have a theory about why the S100D hasn't been released yet. In a few months, Tesla will switch to 2170 Gigafactory cells. Therefore they didn't want to spend too much money and time on the current 100 kWh ramp up packs which will be discontinued anyway.

The current 100 kWh pack has a new design. It has a different cooling system. All the internals are different. However, this entire design will be discontinued in a few months when they switch to larger 2170 cells. When they introduced the P100D on August 24th Elon probably thought they will carry on with P100D and 90D until the switch to 2170 cells. Elon has a tendency to underestimate people's desire for longer range. On twitter he said, Tesla might stop at 100 kWh. I don't believe that will happen.

Now they have realized that they are getting too many phone calls from people asking for the 100D. I don't think the 100 kWh packs with 2170 cells will be ready before April 2017. Now they are scrambling to ramp up existing 100 kWh packs to satisfy the demand. I wrote a month ago here suggesting that Tesla should release the 100D because after analyzing sales numbers by trim level, it was clear to me that there was a huge demand for the longest range versions.

What is going to happen now?
My best guess is, the 100D will be released around December 5th-10th. They will keep the 90s as well because they still won't have enough production capacity for the 100s. Then around April 2017, they will switch to 100 kWh packs with 2170 cells and discontinue the 90s. I don't think a software limited 90 will ever be released. The reason why they released the software limited 60 was because many Model 3 reservation holders wanted to buy a cheaper Model S. You can listen to it here from 15:35 to 17:51.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

All reports say the same cell, just more of them because of the tighter packing and new cooling system.

Yep, the 90 packs (which are really 86kWh packs) are 96s74p. I'm >95% sure that the 100 packs (which are true 100kWh packs) are 96s86p, about a 16% improvement in capacity.

 

[henderrj]

I have a theory about why the S100D hasn't been released yet. In a few months, Tesla will switch to 2170 Gigafactory cells.

I wonder if 100 kWH packs were in fact designed to fit the new size. If so, then they already had the equipment to make it with the new batteries. And, to boot, it'll probably be at 120 kWH.

Then again, Panasonic will still have all the production capacity for the current cell size. So, why not keep those going for the S and X as long as you want? The price is probably fantastic.

 

[Zoomit]

Yep, the 90 packs (which are really 86kWh packs) are 96s74p. I'm >95% sure that the 100 packs (which are true 100kWh packs) are 96s86p, about a 16% improvement in capacity.

Interesting, do you happen to know the usable capacity of the 100kWh packs? Maybe 93kWh?

 

[Troy]

@henderrj, the Model 3 will use the 2170 cells. Production rate is expected to be 400K/year for Model 3 and 100K/year for S&X. I don't see why they would keep 20% of their pack production on the old platform especially considering that both the Model S and X are heavy cars and the new 2170 cells have higher energy density which means less weight for the same capacity. Reducing weight improves many things (better handling, more range, quicker acceleration). Also, it would make sense to implement any new feature to Model S&X first to reduce risks.