100D or 105D speculation

[MartinAustin]

I agree, I do not see the Model X with only one battery size. We know there will be no 60 so we will have an 85 and something higher.

The base variant will ship with the 70KWh battery, according to a chap at the Austin Domain store. (sales staff aren't always right though)

 

[No2DinosaurFuel]

with 70KWh and the penalty of the weight and size of the Model X, we can see 200 miles range for the model X. Maybe it will work maybe it won't, but who knows. All the people here are speculating just as I am. My take is 85KWh and 105KWh which will mean the Model S in the future will be 105KWh once the factory is up and running and churning out enough cells to cover Model X and Model S production.

 

[FlasherZ]

with 70KWh and the penalty of the weight and size of the Model X, we can see 200 miles range for the model X. Maybe it will work maybe it won't, but who knows. All the people here are speculating just as I am. My take is 85KWh and 105KWh which will mean the Model S in the future will be 105KWh once the factory is up and running and churning out enough cells to cover Model X and Model S production.

It may also be that the Model X allows for a deeper pack that the Model S can't have. It doesn't have to be new cell chemistry, either. I'm betting based on the weight and size that the range penalty will be too big to maintain desirable range from an 85 kWh pack.

I guess I'll know in June or July.

 

[brianman]

It may also be that the Model X allows for a deeper pack that the Model S can't have. It doesn't have to be new cell chemistry, either. I'm betting based on the weight and size that the range penalty will be too big to maintain desirable range from an 85 kWh pack.

I guess I'll know in June or July.

Indeed:

I'm not convinced yet that Tesla won't be "creative" with pack shape to allow them to fit more cells in the X top-end offering.

"But but battery swap..." - Until that's actually real, it's mostly an academic counterargument like saying solar doesn't make sense because the long-term value is zero after the sun dies.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

Didn't Elon say that the Model X will get the 70 kWh battery on the low end? I swear I read that he said that, either on the quarterly call or elsewhere.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Years? With respect, I 100% disagree. I've said since the X was announced, it would NEED a 300 mile battery as SUV drivers are more likely to want to take longer trips.

And I believe there are just as many "soccer moms" who want a Model X for running the kids all around town, and would rarely, if ever, need the full range of the battery. They'll be ecstatic just to start with a full "tank" every morning, and are also price sensitive so they'll be happy to buy an 85kwh Model X. One size (or only larger sizes) doesn't fit all, especially when there's a $10k to $29k price difference.

So for that reason, I'm on the betting side that we will see a low end 85kwh Model X (or 90kwh if there are incremental improvements).

At the same time, I don't see the utility for a 70kwh battery in the Model X, but like the original 40kwh battery offered for the MS, I wouldn't be surprised if it makes a brief appearance at launch in order to grab the headlines "Model X announced--- prices START AT $75,000"

 

[scott jones]

And I believe there are just as many "soccer moms" who want a Model X for running the kids all around town, and would rarely, if ever, need the full range of the battery. They'll be ecstatic just to start with a full "tank" every morning, and are also price sensitive so they'll be happy to buy an 85kwh Model X.

Agreed, that's why I said it's "more likely" SUV drivers will want to go 300 miles but not JUST Long trips... Hence the reason I believe there will be an 85 kW battery and a 100 kW to make it more sellable to more people who have different needs... And maybe even a 70 kW for those who don't need the distance and who want to save more money

 

[cantdecide]

There are also a couple other options, like having two battery packs in the car... A swappable 85kwh same as for S as well as a more fixed 20kwh battery, perhaps 2 power walls, for light rare use.

 

[chriSharek]

I will put it straight, I backed out an order of S85D since 70D had been on the shelf. I won't place an order until some bigger pack is an option. TACC and dual motor are nice-to-have features, but if purchasing the car pushes to my financial limitation, I will definitely opt for a bigger pack. In short, I won't buy a $100K car that will lengthen a 2.5-hour trip to 3-hour. As to the price, I don't see it being prohibitively high. 100KWH industrial backup power pack is sold for $25K, why are you expecting an additional 25KWH will let the price go through the roof? At least I am not expecting it to be higher than TACC and dual motor combined.

Your analogy about a 2.5 hour trip becoming a 3 hour trip is interesting. Even if you have a larger battery pack, your 4 hour trip will then be a 4.5 hour trip and so on and so forth. This argument defeats itself.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

Model X is using the same chassis/underbody as the Model S. In that respect, I doubt stacking battery packs would be an option. My bets are on three configs - 70, 85, and something in the 100-105 range. The X70 will exist just to give a lower entry price point, but most will opt for the 85 or larger pack. Within 6 months of shipping, Tesla will cancel the X70 citing low demand. Sound familiar? I would expect the Model S to get the larger pack by mid 2016.

 

[MsElectric]

Model X is using the same chassis/underbody as the Model S. In that respect, I doubt stacking battery packs would be an option. My bets are on three configs - 70, 85, and something in the 100-105 range. The X70 will exist just to give a lower entry price point, but most will opt for the 85 or larger pack. Within 6 months of shipping, Tesla will cancel the X70 citing low demand. Sound familiar? I would expect the Model S to get the larger pack by mid 2016.

I agree with everything you said except I doubt it makes sense to offer BOTH 70 and 85. At that point either someone is going to be really frugal and get the 70D or they will want the absolute max range and will get the 1xxD. Personally I can't imagine paying $10K for only $15Kwh difference when a 1xxD option is available. I think the 85D option will disappear when the larger capacity pack becomes available.

Also it is easier for them to maintain the logistics of just 2 battery packs rather than 3.

 

[Evbwcaer]

This might sound like an odd question, but why is everybody so sure the X with weigh more and be less aero? It is the case that it probably will be both, but maybe not. One example are the wheels on the Model S.

They appear to have made no effort to make the wheels efficient, outside of the aero wheels. I know its not a huge deal, but if a more efficient wheel gets you 10-15 miles more per range charge, you've already brought the 70 meaningfully closer to the 85. Maybe all Xs will have air suspension and be able to ride lower than coil sprung Ss.

Tesla is so progressive, I know physics constrain them, but I bet the X will be nearly as aero, not weigh much more, and maybe have some other tricks too.

It was Tesla after all that added AWD, power, and efficiency all at the same time.

 

[Fiver]

The powerwall has 7KWH and 10KWH options. I've also heard that they are 1/10 of a Model S battery, so I predict there will be an exclusively AWD 100KWH battery coincided with the release of the Model X.

The batteries used in the powerwall are different from the ones used in the car. They talked about the different chemistries a bit during the earnings call. The 10KW/h one for backup is only meant to be fully discharged a few times a year, similar to a lead acid setup (even though it isn't lead acid). Whereas the one for load shaving was meant to be discharged every night.

Both are still different from the battery chemistries used in the car batteries.

 

[Nomad]

Hmm. I think we'll see 85 kWh and 120 kWh packs around the time the Model 3 comes out. JB frequently references the doubling of the energy density in battery packs every 10 years or so. More recently, it has worked out to be about a 40% increase from 2008 to 2013, iirc. If we extrapolate that conservative number to 2018 to the 60 kWh and 85 kWh packs, we end up with 84 kWh and 119 kWh, respectively.

This will obviously be great for range, but it will also be a necessary upgrade to help differentiate the Model S/X from the Gen 3 platform. The top of the line Model 3 has the potential to be on par with the P85D when it comes to performance, thanks to improved cell chemistry and cooling. For that reason, I think we will see massive upgrades to the Model S packs within (+/-) 6 months of the Model 3 release.

 

[Panu]

My speculation: X will ship with 70 and 95 batteries. 85 battery (which is too close to 70) will be discontinued so 70 and 95 will be the battery options for Model S too.

 

[chriSharek]

This might sound like an odd question, but why is everybody so sure the X with weigh more and be less aero? It is the case that it probably will be both, but maybe not. One example are the wheels on the Model S.

They appear to have made no effort to make the wheels efficient, outside of the aero wheels. I know its not a huge deal, but if a more efficient wheel gets you 10-15 miles more per range charge, you've already brought the 70 meaningfully closer to the 85. Maybe all Xs will have air suspension and be able to ride lower than coil sprung Ss.

Tesla is so progressive, I know physics constrain them, but I bet the X will be nearly as aero, not weigh much more, and maybe have some other tricks too.

It was Tesla after all that added AWD, power, and efficiency all at the same time.

That "physics" you mentioned does not allow an SUV to be more aero than a Sedan. Simple as that. Just look at the frontal area for each. This is the prime input for calculating drag. The Model X will clearly be larger than the Model S. There is NO way it will be more aerodynamic.

This frustrates me with all the stupid little ICE SUVs such as the CR-V, Highlander, Escape, etc. Americans think they need to "sit up high" or "more room" in an SUV. The rest of the world gets it. Americans are just spoiled. SUVs are ALWAYS overweight and underpowered when compared with a sedan with an equivalent drivetrain.

- - - Updated - - -

My speculation: X will ship with 70 and 95 batteries. 85 battery (which is too close to 70) will be discontinued so 70 and 95 will be the battery options for Model S too.

Panu, since you're in a guessing/betting mood, when do you think this will happen? In the fall with the release of the X? I'm ordering MS in a week, but not taking delivery until November. Wondering if I'll have the option to upgrade. . .

 

[Panu]

Panu, since you're in a guessing/betting mood, when do you think this will happen? In the fall with the release of the X? I'm ordering MS in a week, but not taking delivery until November. Wondering if I'll have the option to upgrade. . .

I'm guessing that it will happen at the same time or soon after Model X battery options are revealed which will be summer or autumn. A lot of things can happen before November, not just battery upgrade. If you always wait for new features you can basically wait forever .

By the way why are you ordering now and taking delivery in November? When production of your car has not yet started there is good chance you can upgrade, at least for a small fee ($500).

 

[No2DinosaurFuel]

I agree with panu. I think when the model x comes out the 85kwh will be gone. However i still think thr high end version will be 105kwh. 70Kwh for the model x will be a bit difficult. But then again as long as modular, tesla can easily build batteries with different capacity.

I expect another price drop or sale on the old cars around oct or nov timeframe again this year. This probably when i will make the purchase.

 

[Evbwcaer]

That "physics" you mentioned does not allow an SUV to be more aero than a Sedan. Simple as that. Just look at the frontal area for each. This is the prime input for calculating drag. The Model X will clearly be larger than the Model S. There is NO way it will be more aerodynamic.

There is no law of physics that says an SUV will be less aero than a sedan. Again, I am not saying the X will be more aero, but I also don't think Tesla is going to just roll-over dead and concede this...the X will 99.9% be less aero, but maybe not by much.

Make it ride lower at highway speed, puts more aero wheels on it, use any advances in LRR tires, have side-view cameras or at least the ability to retrofit when laws change, adaptive vents/louvers/spoilers. Not specifically related to aerodynamics, but lighter aluminum alloys have come out since the S began production.

My point is that I suspect Tesla will surprise us with how close the X is to the S in terms of efficiency.

 

[David99]

There is no law of physics that says an SUV will be less aero than a sedan. Again, I am not saying the X will be more aero, but I also don't think Tesla is going to just roll-over dead and concede this...the X will 99.9% be less aero, but maybe not by much.

Make it ride lower at highway speed, puts more aero wheels on it, use any advances in LRR tires, have side-view cameras or at least the ability to retrofit when laws change, adaptive vents/louvers/spoilers. Not specifically related to aerodynamics, but lighter aluminum alloys have come out since the S began production.

My point is that I suspect Tesla will surprise us with how close the X is to the S in terms of efficiency.

The "coefficient drag" is not an absolute number. It has no dimension. It's a multiplier to calculate the actual air drag at different speeds depending on the size of the vehicle. If the Model S and Model X have the same cd of 0.24 (or whatever it is) the Model X will have a higher air drag because it is larger and has a larger front area. It will also be heavier than the Model S. There is no way the Model X will match the Model S efficiency as Tesla has been, and still is, fine tuning the Model S over time. They already reduced weight over the first years. Every little detail they can do to make the X more efficient, they will also add into the Model S.