100D or 105D speculation

[3mp_kwh]

It's not just the cables in the car. It's the cables on the supercharger, the connector on the supercharger side, and the charge port on the car, and all the wiring in between (including probably the quick disconnect used for the battery pack itself) that would all need to be updated. No small task with thousands of cars on the road and thousands of supercharger stalls already.

I like your reasoning, about the car's internal hardware challenges if going beyond 85kwh. It leaves higher MAH cells looking more likely, than simply more cells. In which case, gains would be incremental. What miliamp hour jump is available in 18650 format?


Tesla could get around the infrastructure issues, by coding a different taper into the larger battery cars. Imagine, then we'd have a '100D charge rate needs an asterisk' thread :tongue:

 

[scott jones]

Was anyone else going to take me up on the $100 to charity bet that the largest pack announced at the Model X initial release will be 85 kWh?

I'm fairly confident in this, so happy to raise a few bucks for a local charity.

My charity is Multiple Sclerosis. My mom and aunt have it.
And you are going to lose They have got to come out with a better battery for the heavier SUV where families will want to take it on longer trips without having to keep an ICE around. And then the Model S will also be able to share it. Scott

 

[schonelucht]

They have got to come out with a better battery for the heavier SUV where families will want to take it on longer trips without having to keep an ICE around. And then the Model S will also be able to share it. Scott

If (and I agree with wk-57 here) they ever come out with a bigger capacity there is, in my opinion, 0 (Zero) % chance that Tesla will offer upgrades for existing model S's. They'll just have you buy a new car, just as they do with the dual motors, with 60->70, with autopilot or really with any additional hardware functionality beyond the most trivial.

 

[Johann Koeber]

If (and I agree with wk-57 here) they ever come out with a bigger capacity there is, in my opinion, 0 (Zero) % chance that Tesla will offer upgrades for existing model S's. They'll just have you buy a new car, just as they do with the dual motors, with 60->70, with autopilot or really with any additional hardware functionality beyond the most trivial.

Wishful thinking:

- it is the same skateboard
- battery swap is possible (Harris Ranch)
- software of the car should not be a big problem
- some people would be willing to pay
- it does not need modified hardware in the car (like the Autopilot update did)

So ... why not?

 

[No2DinosaurFuel]

From a business standpoint, I agree, but I don't think Tesla is that type of company who would stick it to their customer like some companies out there who shall remain nameless. I think tesla will at some point provide the upgrade at a cost. We have an example already. Look no further than the Roadster. Keep in mind, the Roadster probably have a more difficult battery to replace and Musk said they are offering a refresh to those old roadsters. With battery swapping, I don't think it will be difficult or costly for tesla to replace batteries for the model S.

 

[HankLloydRight]

I agree.... for every 85kWh owner who upgrades to the next level, Tesla could turn around and sell that "refurbed" 85kWh pack to a 60kWh owner wanting to upgrade to 85kWh. Very little labor, and lots of profit.

What Tesla does with the discarded 60kWh packs? Who knows. Prob too much labor to open up to salvage the individual cells or cell packs.

 

[Twiglett]

What Tesla does with the discarded 60kWh packs? Who knows. Prob too much labor to open up to salvage the individual cells or cell packs.

I thought that one of the stated aims of the gigafactory was to recycle packs.

 

[schonelucht]

So ... why not?

Walk into a Tesla shop today and ask if you can upgrade your 60/70 to an 85 right now. You will get no for an answer. Same reason. It's easier and more profitable to just sell you a new car and take your old one back in the CPO program.

 

[wk057]

$100 says the Model X has a max 85kWh pack at launch.

How about $100 to charity? I'll take that bet.

I'll take that bet as well. The money going to the winners charity.

Well dang, guess I should have been more specific to the topic of the thread and said it won't launch with a 100 or 105 kWh pack.

*nods to winners*

Shoot me info for your respective charities when you get a moment and I'll send out their spoils.

 

[scott jones]

Well dang, guess I should have been more specific to the topic of the thread and said it won't launch with a 100 or 105 kWh pack.

*nods to winners*

Shoot me info for your respective charities when you get a moment and I'll send out their spoils.

Any Multiple Sclerosis charity, (Local or national) of your choice!

 

[wk057]

Any Multiple Sclerosis charity, (Local or national) of your choice!

Actually one of the charities I donate to normally.

Now I just need FlasherZ's

 

[FlasherZ]

Well dang, guess I should have been more specific to the topic of the thread and said it won't launch with a 100 or 105 kWh pack.

*nods to winners*

Shoot me info for your respective charities when you get a moment and I'll send out their spoils.

Either Special Olympics Illinois (Special Olympics Illinois) or Autism Speaks (Home | Autism Speaks). I very much appreciate it and you're a great sport.

(I was on an Internet-free camping weekend, but heard a news blurb... I'd rather see it be bigger than 90, but at least we know they're shooting for the same range as the S...)

 

[ICUDoc]

Quality work, wk057.

 

[wk057]

Either Special Olympics Illinois (Special Olympics Illinois) or Autism Speaks (Home | Autism Speaks). I very much appreciate it and you're a great sport.

(I was on an Internet-free camping weekend, but heard a news blurb... I'd rather see it be bigger than 90, but at least we know they're shooting for the same range as the S...)

Done!

Until next time!

 

[scott jones]

actually one of the charities i donate to normally.

View attachment 87971

now i just need flasherz's

. Thank you sir!

 

[FlasherZ]

Done!

Until next time!

Indeed. Thank you, from me, my son and the 11,000+ other athletes that benefit from the work of Special Olympics in Illinois.

 

[SmartElectric]

$100 says the Model X has a max 85kWh pack at launch.

Close...

 

[BM3B]

Wow this thread is not what I assumed.

I am happy to report that my 2020 X LR++ appears to have a physical pack size of 105 kWh based on my testing. I believe there was a chemistry change in mid 2020 that boosted the capacity. My charging capacity is 101 kWh, add in a 4 kWh bottom buffer and voila 105 kWh. Congrats everyone who guessed 105. On the downside, Tesla appears to have removed some cells for the 2021 X LR that dropped in rated range from 371 to 360 miles despite lower weight and drivetrain improvements. I estimate around 200 fewer cells.

 

[ucmndd]

Wow this thread is not what I assumed.

I am happy to report that my 2020 X LR++ appears to have a physical pack size of 105 kWh based on my testing. I believe there was a chemistry change in mid 2020 that boosted the capacity. My charging capacity is 101 kWh, add in a 4 kWh bottom buffer and voila 105 kWh. Congrats everyone who guessed 105.

I’d be curious to hear about your “testing” methodology that lead you to this conclusion.

 

[BM3B]

I drove the battery down to 20% then charged on L2 to 90%, recording the data given below using teslafi.
Charging capacity = 68.76 kWh/(249.59 mi/369 mi) = 101.7 kWh.

Energy (kWh)	Rated Miles	Rated 100% range	Capacity (kWh)
68.76	249.59	369	101.7

The discharge capacity is less due to battery and drivetrain losses, I determined discharge (driving) capacity = 94 kWh.

Date	Model	Miles	Wh/mile	Energy (kWh)	Rated Miles	Rated 100% range	Capacity (kWh)	Wh/rated mile
11/2/2020	X LR++	212.8	354	75.4	295	369	94.3	255
10/31/2020	X LR++	202.2	360	72.8	287	369	93.6	254