It all depends on how you drive and what the weather is like. If its a ~60F day and you drive in the low 70s you can easily hit 300 miles. If its super cold and windy you'll struggle to get to 200 miles.
EVtripplanner's estimates are quite accurate, I'd suggest taking a look at the routes you'll be travelling frequently and see how much energy it will take under various situations.
At this point with the number of superchargers around now, raw range is really not that important. The only difficulty is if you ever stay somewhere without charging as short trips in the cold can really chew into range. Then having the biggest battery is a huge help.
Echoing what others have said, given that you are from a northern climate, there is a HUGE difference I get between my summer range and my winter range. I have a 90D and I would say in the coldest of cold days, I lose as much as 40% of my range. So, my range says 425km, when in fact, I get about 255km (about 160km) in the worst conditions.
If the 100D was to experience the same kind of loss I get, you start with 475km at 90% and you go down to 285km (177 miles) with a loss of 40%.
Keep in mind, in the summer months, I am pretty close to getting 425km or if I drive really slowly, even more.
We have been driving ours since August in the northeast and our “lifetime” (mostly local, a handful of long highway road trips) has our usage at 333 Wh/mile.
We show 300 mi of range at 90% or 267 at our daily 80% set point, but of course the coldest days would eat that up. As it’s been getting warmer, we’re getting back to where we were at the end of the summer last year.
We sprung for the 100D and have had a few occasions where it really helped us - had a wedding weekend that was pretty far away with no good locations for charging. By charging to 100% en route and a little bit of driving during the wedding weekend, we still made it back to the same super charger whereas if we had the 75D, we would’ve had to alter our route by about an hour “out of the way.” It wouldn’t have been terrible, but it was a lot nicer with the extra range.
I can see that a 100D would make a real world difference of enabling trips that are a challenge with my 85 where I live and there's little supercharger infrastructure around. We do have L2 options on the road, typically up to 68A or so... but that's a 6 hour full recharge if you're rolling up empty.
For a trip I have in mind and would frequent this summer, it's 4 hours driving gingerly maybe under-speed, then a 1.5 hour charge, then 1.5 hour drive to get my S85 to destination .... which would become 5 hour straight drive in 100D driven moderately.
We just did this as a round trip in one day and were forced to use our ICE car to cover 1200km... in the same period of daylight. This would not be possible even with 100D because there's no SC at the destination. If there were a L3 charge option at destination then yes 100D would have cut it.