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12-14 month recap

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by 30seconds, Nov 27, 2013.

  1. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

    Feb 28, 2013
    Just in case anyone else finds it helpful, or would like to contribute, here is my summary list of Telsa progress (pluses and minuses) over the last 12-14 months and list of potential progress items over the next 12 months.

    Personally I think it is/ has been a remarkable 12 month period and confirms that they are on track to becoming a major global transportation player. When

    Disclosures: In terms of investments I came in heavy last fall, sold out of all option positions by late summer but kept share positions (about 50% pullback on total value), started coming back into LEAPS when stock hit 150 recently and expanded LEAP position today. I'm really looking to hold over next 2-4 years and mainly worried about design issues (i.e., fire vulnerability, drive unit failures piling up) or "black swans" (earthquake, hacking, ?) that impact this incredible trajectory of the company. I don't have a Model S (for a few personal non-financial reasons) but probably will get one in the next two years.

    12-14 month recap

    • Model S deliveries move from first production to over 500 units/ per week
    • Deliveries to US, Canada, and Europe
    • Stores & service centers opened across US with expansion into Canada, Europe and China
      • Over 70 opened or coming soon in NA including 4 to 5 in Canada
      • 34 opened or coming soon in Europe
      • 5 opened or coming soon in China, Hong Kong, Japan and Austrialia
    • Supercharger network goes from 0 to covering West Coast, parts of Florida, Texas, Midwest and East Coast in US & substantially all of Norway; first ones in Germany
    • MotorTrend 2013 Car of the Year
    • 5-star crash rating
    • Better UI interface than any other car
    • Over the air software updates
    • Multiple cars reaching 20-30k miles with battery degradation similar to projections
    • Revenue growth to almost $2B for FY 2013 (projected)
    • Gross margins increased to 21% on target for 25%
    • Cash flow positive
    • Expansion of battery supply agreement with Panasonic
    • Clear indication of demand in excess of 20,000 units annually from US & Europe; probably 30,000+ units WW for Model S
    • No advertising
    • Significant brand growth generally
    • “Buzz” with people who like cars and have $$ to spend; top selling car in many high income zip codes
    • Model S established as top electric car and automotive press generally puts it above or on-par with BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Jag…luxury brands
    • Stock up ~275% from last Nov, 255% from Jan 1


    • Initial factory issues (12V, windshield cracks - seem to be solved, drive unit failures - still happening) kept long term service/ warranty costs unknown
    • Two debris related fires leading to questions about design vulnerability
    • Production constraints on Model S limiting output to ~ 6,000/ quarter
    • Longer term battery production constraints lead to questions about high volume (>200,000 units) viability
    • Stock down ~35% from high (October)

    Next 12 months

    • Launch of Model X
    • First deliveries of Model S in China
    • Supercharger expansion to drive East Coast and Coast to Coast; Coverage of large parts of Western Europe
    • Target of 40,000 deliveries
    • Further experience on safety / performance in real world conditions (including fire vulnerability)
    • Further progress on large scale battery manufacturing
    • Prototype Gen E?
    • Potential for sales expansion into South Africa, Australia, Japan, Middle East
    • Launch of Mercedes B-class electric
    • New Model S variants (AWD, new color, more comfort / tech options, improved interior options)
    • 25% Gross Margins
  2. vin5xxx

    vin5xxx Member

    Apr 8, 2013
    I think GM will be 30% by end of 2014. The DB analyst seems to agree as he stated today.

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