Just in case anyone else finds it helpful, or would like to contribute, here is my summary list of Telsa progress (pluses and minuses) over the last 12-14 months and list of potential progress items over the next 12 months.
Personally I think it is/ has been a remarkable 12 month period and confirms that they are on track to becoming a major global transportation player. When
Disclosures: In terms of investments I came in heavy last fall, sold out of all option positions by late summer but kept share positions (about 50% pullback on total value), started coming back into LEAPS when stock hit 150 recently and expanded LEAP position today. I'm really looking to hold over next 2-4 years and mainly worried about design issues (i.e., fire vulnerability, drive unit failures piling up) or "black swans" (earthquake, hacking, ?) that impact this incredible trajectory of the company. I don't have a Model S (for a few personal non-financial reasons) but probably will get one in the next two years.
12-14 month recap
Minuses
Next 12 months
Personally I think it is/ has been a remarkable 12 month period and confirms that they are on track to becoming a major global transportation player. When
Disclosures: In terms of investments I came in heavy last fall, sold out of all option positions by late summer but kept share positions (about 50% pullback on total value), started coming back into LEAPS when stock hit 150 recently and expanded LEAP position today. I'm really looking to hold over next 2-4 years and mainly worried about design issues (i.e., fire vulnerability, drive unit failures piling up) or "black swans" (earthquake, hacking, ?) that impact this incredible trajectory of the company. I don't have a Model S (for a few personal non-financial reasons) but probably will get one in the next two years.
12-14 month recap
- Model S deliveries move from first production to over 500 units/ per week
- Deliveries to US, Canada, and Europe
- Stores & service centers opened across US with expansion into Canada, Europe and China
- Over 70 opened or coming soon in NA including 4 to 5 in Canada
- 34 opened or coming soon in Europe
- 5 opened or coming soon in China, Hong Kong, Japan and Austrialia
- Supercharger network goes from 0 to covering West Coast, parts of Florida, Texas, Midwest and East Coast in US & substantially all of Norway; first ones in Germany
- MotorTrend 2013 Car of the Year
- 5-star crash rating
- Better UI interface than any other car
- Over the air software updates
- Multiple cars reaching 20-30k miles with battery degradation similar to projections
- Revenue growth to almost $2B for FY 2013 (projected)
- Gross margins increased to 21% on target for 25%
- Cash flow positive
- Expansion of battery supply agreement with Panasonic
- Clear indication of demand in excess of 20,000 units annually from US & Europe; probably 30,000+ units WW for Model S
- No advertising
- Significant brand growth generally
- “Buzz” with people who like cars and have $$ to spend; top selling car in many high income zip codes
- Model S established as top electric car and automotive press generally puts it above or on-par with BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Jag…luxury brands
- Stock up ~275% from last Nov, 255% from Jan 1
Minuses
- Initial factory issues (12V, windshield cracks - seem to be solved, drive unit failures - still happening) kept long term service/ warranty costs unknown
- Two debris related fires leading to questions about design vulnerability
- Production constraints on Model S limiting output to ~ 6,000/ quarter
- Longer term battery production constraints lead to questions about high volume (>200,000 units) viability
- Stock down ~35% from high (October)
Next 12 months
- Launch of Model X
- First deliveries of Model S in China
- Supercharger expansion to drive East Coast and Coast to Coast; Coverage of large parts of Western Europe
- Target of 40,000 deliveries
- Further experience on safety / performance in real world conditions (including fire vulnerability)
- Further progress on large scale battery manufacturing
- Prototype Gen E?
- Potential for sales expansion into South Africa, Australia, Japan, Middle East
- Launch of Mercedes B-class electric
- New Model S variants (AWD, new color, more comfort / tech options, improved interior options)
- 25% Gross Margins
