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12-14 month recap

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by 30seconds, Nov 27, 2013.

  1. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2013
    Messages:
    1,143
    Location:
    SF
    Just in case anyone else finds it helpful, or would like to contribute, here is my summary list of Telsa progress (pluses and minuses) over the last 12-14 months and list of potential progress items over the next 12 months.

    Personally I think it is/ has been a remarkable 12 month period and confirms that they are on track to becoming a major global transportation player. When

    Disclosures: In terms of investments I came in heavy last fall, sold out of all option positions by late summer but kept share positions (about 50% pullback on total value), started coming back into LEAPS when stock hit 150 recently and expanded LEAP position today. I'm really looking to hold over next 2-4 years and mainly worried about design issues (i.e., fire vulnerability, drive unit failures piling up) or "black swans" (earthquake, hacking, ?) that impact this incredible trajectory of the company. I don't have a Model S (for a few personal non-financial reasons) but probably will get one in the next two years.

    12-14 month recap


    • Model S deliveries move from first production to over 500 units/ per week
    • Deliveries to US, Canada, and Europe
    • Stores & service centers opened across US with expansion into Canada, Europe and China
      • Over 70 opened or coming soon in NA including 4 to 5 in Canada
      • 34 opened or coming soon in Europe
      • 5 opened or coming soon in China, Hong Kong, Japan and Austrialia
    • Supercharger network goes from 0 to covering West Coast, parts of Florida, Texas, Midwest and East Coast in US & substantially all of Norway; first ones in Germany
    • MotorTrend 2013 Car of the Year
    • 5-star crash rating
    • Better UI interface than any other car
    • Over the air software updates
    • Multiple cars reaching 20-30k miles with battery degradation similar to projections
    • Revenue growth to almost $2B for FY 2013 (projected)
    • Gross margins increased to 21% on target for 25%
    • Cash flow positive
    • Expansion of battery supply agreement with Panasonic
    • Clear indication of demand in excess of 20,000 units annually from US & Europe; probably 30,000+ units WW for Model S
    • No advertising
    • Significant brand growth generally
    • “Buzz” with people who like cars and have $$ to spend; top selling car in many high income zip codes
    • Model S established as top electric car and automotive press generally puts it above or on-par with BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Jag…luxury brands
    • Stock up ~275% from last Nov, 255% from Jan 1

    Minuses

    • Initial factory issues (12V, windshield cracks - seem to be solved, drive unit failures - still happening) kept long term service/ warranty costs unknown
    • Two debris related fires leading to questions about design vulnerability
    • Production constraints on Model S limiting output to ~ 6,000/ quarter
    • Longer term battery production constraints lead to questions about high volume (>200,000 units) viability
    • Stock down ~35% from high (October)


    Next 12 months

    • Launch of Model X
    • First deliveries of Model S in China
    • Supercharger expansion to drive East Coast and Coast to Coast; Coverage of large parts of Western Europe
    • Target of 40,000 deliveries
    • Further experience on safety / performance in real world conditions (including fire vulnerability)
    • Further progress on large scale battery manufacturing
    • Prototype Gen E?
    • Potential for sales expansion into South Africa, Australia, Japan, Middle East
    • Launch of Mercedes B-class electric
    • New Model S variants (AWD, new color, more comfort / tech options, improved interior options)
    • 25% Gross Margins
     
  2. vin5xxx

    vin5xxx Member

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    Location:
    California
    I think GM will be 30% by end of 2014. The DB analyst seems to agree as he stated today.
     

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