$12K for FSD is insane

[Tam]

...It’s paying for what’s to come...

I bought FSD because I thought it would refine its ability to avoid collisions soon. I thought all the hardware was there. Now that I got the very latest FSD beta, I don't see how the Tesla collision avoidance system would be here anytime soon.

It would be worth some amount of dollars if I could summon my car from the other side of the coast. If my car wouldn't get into collisions with a simple summon, parallel parking...

After 5 years of owning FSD, I don't see how Tesla's massive data-gathering advantage, much faster HW 2.0, 2.5, 3, soon 4, supercomputer Dojo, Pure Vision, Radarless. NeuroNet, AI... would be able to have a functional collision avoidance system for another 5 years.

Thus, Tesla should pay owners to participate in FSD and we should not pay $12,000 to be beta testers.

 

[dcesq06]

I bought FSD because I thought it would refine its ability to avoid collisions soon. I thought all the hardware was there. Now that I got the very latest FSD beta, I don't see how the Tesla collision avoidance system would be here anytime soon.

It would be worth some amount of dollars if I could summon my car from the other side of the coast. If my car wouldn't get into collisions with a simple summon, parallel parking...

After 5 years of owning FSD, I don't see how Tesla's massive data-gathering advantage, much faster HW 2.0, 2.5, 3, soon 4, supercomputer Dojo, Pure Vision, Radarless. NeuroNet, AI... would be able to have a functional collision avoidance system for another 5 years.

Thus, Tesla should pay owners to participate in FSD and we should not pay $12,000 to be beta testers.

Isn't it more a function of collision minimization versus collision avoidance? Five years is an optimistic perspective of complete avoidance, but perhaps a realistic target for substantial minimization.

 

[rob1987]

The closer we get to a release, the closer we get to the service going subscription only. Offering FSD as an outright purchase was just for initial early adopters. Raising the upfront cost is just being done because they don’t need more takers to fund the development, and because they don’t want more takers who won’t need the subscription service once it’s the only option.

Software as a Service (SaaS) is the way the tech industry has been moving for years now. Tesla doesn’t want to charge you $10k for life. They want to charge you $200/month for the first year, then price increases to $300/month for the 3 years after that. Or as others in the thread floated, scale the fee with miles driven. That’s why all cars supposedly come with the hardware for FSD even if you don’t take the FSD package.

SaaS has proven a superior model for the software companies for various reasons, especially the way it smoothes out their revenue to a regular income stream, rather than have it come it jolts with new product releases. That also helps with ongoing funding of the software development. Tesla’s competition like the Luminar-Volvo-Zeneact Drive Pilot, and GM’s Supercruise are also planned to be subscription services.

This price increase is likely due to the release date approaching. The fact that the price increase is also only in the US market tells us the release will only be in the US which is where the regulatory environment is most accommodating (no FSD beta whatsoever outside of the US so far). So the US FSD release date is getting closer, but international FSD release date is probably still a long way off.

 

[DBV1]

He needs to include auto lane change in the basic package or he has to charge $1k for it. Only part I like, but that is so basic too.

 

[zigmeister]

It wasn’t worth the $213/mo I was paying while on Beta. It’s not worth $1 at this point. Even basic AP is garbage and auto steer. Car can’t follow and accelerate consistently and can’t slow without hitting the brakes. Constant alerts about takeover around some sweeping turns still. It’s pretty pathetic actually.

Like many was completely bamboozled by Elon when I bought this car 6 months ago. Yeah it’s electric, pretty quick, weighs 2 metric tons and even coil overs only help some with handling. Mileage of 353 isn’t a thing with temperature and you should only charge to 80%. Realistically I go about 250 miles barely.

Oh sorry rant over and went off track. FSD is a myth and not happening anytime soon.

Now if they come out with a 30k smaller 4 door car, not a hatchback but Audi S3 size slightly larger, kind of C Mercedes or BMW 2 series size etc…would like that and ditch this M3 in a second. Can’t believe I just referred to this car as an M3 when that title only belongs to the two I’ve owned and long time BMW owner.

 

[Hurricane4911]

Thus, Tesla should pay owners to participate in FSD and we should not pay $12,000 to be beta testers.

I've been around IT for a long, long time, and that is exactly what was done. We gave testers the software free for being part of the Quality Assurance process. I'm not speaking to games. These were corporate customers receiving huge discounts for database management systems for Beta testing.

FSD is taking the "let the customer pay our testing costs" to a whole new level. I didnt like the proviso when I ordered my MY. This $2k bump is a bit much. Time will tell if there is a backlash.

 

[TresLA]

Raising the upfront cost is just being done because they don’t need more takers to fund the development, and because they don’t want more takers who won’t need the subscription service once it’s the only option.

If this were their intent, they’d probably just stop selling it instead of hiking the price.

My speculation/opinion/predicting the future is that the upfront purchase option isn’t going away. They’ll just hike the price up. The two payment models are for different types of customers. For me, the subscription doesn’t make any sense, but that’s mainly because I’m not planning to sell our Model 3.

 

[rob1987]

If this were their intent, they’d probably just stop selling it instead of hiking the price.

Depends how close they are to a release, and how final that release is. They will hike the price bit by bit as release gets closer, and as the software goes from level 2+ to 3 and beyond. The upfront payment model is definitely going away, just like free unlimited supercharging. And just like FUSC they’re never making it generally transferable (but may make limited exceptions for early adopters who never got any benefit before selling their cars, mostly to avoid litigation).

 

[TresLA]

Exactly. I for one will never ever again give Tesla money based on claims or promises of future capability, and I’ll passionately advise others to do the same.

The delusion that “technology gets more expensive over time so you better buy now!” is particularly galling. In what other technology sector has that ever been true?

There is more than one way of thinking about it. We didn’t pay for FSD Capability “based on claims or promises of future capability” anymore than we purchase our iPhones expecting to be able to upgrade to the next (many) versions of iOS. We expected our Tesla to improve over time. In four years, it has: expectations met. I had my own reasons why I doubted level 5 FSD anytime soon after our 2018 purchase, so my expectations have been tempered. Now, if Tesla stopped OTA updates and whatever software version you buy your car with is what you’re stuck with? That’s a different story and I’d be pretty unhappy, just like I would if iPhones changed to no more OTA updates. Perhaps it would behoove others to also temper expectations (maybe stop reading/read less Elon tweets) and just expect/imagine, “what incremental and big jump improvements might be coming in a version or 5 updates down the road?” More would be happier customers (and more realistic consumers).

As for the pricing “delusion” you refer to, it happens all the time. Heck, Kickstarter campaigns are often “future tech that will be more expensive later” and is built on that business model. But in this case, we are talking about locking in software pricing, not hardware upgrades (except that promise of HW2.5 to HW3 upgrade, which we all got). Software/licensing is often priced with lock-in rates.

 

[joebob1234]

Has anyone done or seen analysis of the residual value of FSD on a used tesla? I've read the comments about FSD not being worth it, but I'm still trying to talk myself into it. There is some value there me(lane change, satisfy the nerdie tech guy in me, and parlor trick for friends.)

If I pay 10k today, can I re-coupe ~30% in 5 years when I trade it in? If FSD goes to $12k, then $14k, then my 30% net cost would $5.8k.

Anyone seen that analysis?

 

[TresLA]

Has anyone done or seen analysis of the residual value of FSD on a used tesla? I've read the comments about FSD not being worth it, but I'm still trying to talk myself into it. There is some value there me(lane change, satisfy the nerdie tech guy in me, and parlor trick for friends.)

If I pay 10k today, can I re-coupe ~30% in 5 years when I trade it in? If FSD goes to $12k, then $14k, then my 30% net cost would $5.8k.

Anyone seen that analysis?

Not an analysis, but I just checked Tesla’s used inventory for 2017 & 2018 Model 3, same trim level but AP only vs FSD Capability and price difference seems about $6k. It’s a small sample set to draw any conclusions from and despite the inflated used car market, $45k vs $51k is pretty good for a 4-5 year old car.

 

[AndreP]

FSD should theoretically appreciate in value over time, that's part of how Elon sold the outright purchase price back in the day.

So if you originally paid $6k for FSD on your vehicle and the price has now increased to $10-12k, you should be able to turn around and sell the vehicle with a profit on FSD. If full autonomy suddenly materializes and you have FSD on the vehicle, you should be able to turn around and sell it for the +$100k or +$200k that Elon said it would be worth in the future due to the increased utility as it shuttles people around in Robotaxi mode.

There are all kinds of implications around this obviously, especially with a subscription service now available. Whether Tesla or a 3rd party buyer will pay more for software on a vehicle made five years ago because the price of the software has now increased, I don't know how likely that is.

 

[TresLA]

FSD should theoretically appreciate in value over time, that's part of how Elon sold the outright purchase price back in the day.

So if you originally paid $6k for FSD on your vehicle and the price has now increased to $10-12k, you should be able to turn around and sell the vehicle with a profit on FSD. If full autonomy suddenly materializes and you have FSD on the vehicle, you should be able to turn around and sell it for the +$100k or +$200k that Elon said it would be worth in the future due to the increased utility as it shuttles people around in Robotaxi mode.

There are all kinds of implications around this obviously, especially with a subscription service now available. Whether Tesla or a 3rd party buyer will pay more for software on a vehicle made five years ago because the price of the software has now increased, I don't know how likely that is.

At least based on that quick search of Tesla’s used inventory in my previous post, FSD Capability would net a profit depending on when it was purchased. Ours was $3k for FSD Capability (or $8k if you include EAP purchase, but that’s also AP which is now included for free). I must add this market is hard to read. It’s kind of nuts that my same car same year same options is now selling on Tesla’s used inventory site for MORE THAN WHAT I PAID (after my $10k rebate fully received less than a year later).

 

[AndreP]

At least based on that quick search of Tesla’s used inventory in my previous post, FSD Capability would net a profit depending on when it was purchased. Ours was $3k for FSD Capability (or $8k if you include EAP purchase, but that’s also AP which is now included for free). I must add this market is hard to read. It’s kind of nuts that my same car same year same options is now selling on Tesla’s used inventory site for MORE THAN WHAT I PAID.

Yeah it would probably be a bit tough to get a feel for this at the best of times much less with the car market borked up the way it is currently

Will be interesting to see how things unfold as supply chain issues smooth out. I'm starting to wonder if we'll see that demand was pulled forward and things flip from under to oversupply, not just in cars but in a range of stuff.

 

[uujjj2]

The $12k is only worth it if you can make money renting your car as a robotaxi. Not for a convenience feature. Except Tesla has made clear that FSD won't actually allow robotaxi operation. Nonsense to pay $12k for basically urban autopilot.

 

[Sporty]

The feature has a lot of hype. I suspect it’s largely first time buyers. Eg what’s the purchase rate by previous purchasers of fsd when they upgrade their cars? How does that compare to first time sales?

If it’s mostly first time owners I think it’s a risk too sell too many of them. Their car will age out before the feature is useful and it could leave a bad taste. Will they be a return custom if they feel T didn’t stand behind a 10k upsell option they were sold?

I’d also be interested in the rental retention stats. Seems like a funny model atm… here rent this thing that (in many cases) doesn’t really work. Next month - are you going to keep renting it?

 

[EVDRVN]

It wasn’t worth the $213/mo I was paying while on Beta. It’s not worth $1 at this point. Even basic AP is garbage and auto steer. Car can’t follow and accelerate consistently and can’t slow without hitting the brakes. Constant alerts about takeover around some sweeping turns still. It’s pretty pathetic actually.

Like many was completely bamboozled by Elon when I bought this car 6 months ago. Yeah it’s electric, pretty quick, weighs 2 metric tons and even coil overs only help some with handling. Mileage of 353 isn’t a thing with temperature and you should only charge to 80%. Realistically I go about 250 miles barely.

Oh sorry rant over and went off track. FSD is a myth and not happening anytime soon.

Now if they come out with a 30k smaller 4 door car, not a hatchback but Audi S3 size slightly larger, kind of C Mercedes or BMW 2 series size etc…would like that and ditch this M3 in a second. Can’t believe I just referred to this car as an M3 when that title only belongs to the two I’ve owned and long time BMW owner.

Only charge to 80%? Nonsense, you can charge to 100% if you are using it and not letting it sit in hot conditions and 90% SOC and sitting is not a big deal. I've owned at least 10 EVs and never had an issue doing this, My AP works flawlessly in most cases and for road trips it's essential. All EVs have issues with temp didn't you know this? You live in Florida and have temp issues? I have never bought AP but why would I at this point however the rest of the car including AP is great, why would anyone buy AP until it is flawless?

 

[Sporty]

If this were their intent, they’d probably just stop selling it instead of hiking the price.

My speculation/opinion/predicting the future is that the upfront purchase option isn’t going away. They’ll just hike the price up. The two payment models are for different types of customers. For me, the subscription doesn’t make any sense, but that’s mainly because I’m not planning to sell our Model 3.

The risk is the car tech keeps moving forward. This is the first car I want to upgrade. I normally drive them into the ground. Car before my M3 was 14yrs. My M3 is 4yr and I want the tweaks that my wife car has and that are coming.

Also *if* they ever make fsd work I would imagine they would start tweaking that system & hw to make it even better. Eg how is gen-1 going to compare to gen-2? Eventually that curve flattens but at the start I suspect gen-1 might be left in the dust pretty quickly. And arguably what I have right now isn’t even gen-1… it’s a hope.

 

[P3dStealth]

All the people buying it keep justifying the purchase by saying they are keeping the car forever and someday it will happen. The truth is your Tesla will be old tech in 4-10 years. There will be new, better looking, faster, longer range, better equipped, faster processors, faster charging, larger vehicles coming out. I love my Tesla but I am not a believer that it's going to drive itself without me in it anytime soon.

In other words, if you buy it now and it does ever come out. You will have the iPhone 3 and I will have iphone 15. Your hardware will be old tech and worn.

Eventually assisted driving tech is going to be common on cars that are way more advanced than our 2020 model 3s. Look at how much the S has changed.

It makes more sense to buy the subscription for the software.

 

[AndreP]

When it comes to the technology and the build of the car, we can also extrapolate differences into usability and marketing as a Robotaxi.

Without knowing what this service would look like...

Will newer vehicles with more features be able to command higher rates when functioning as a Robotaxi?

Will customers be able to see (or demand the ability to see) how vehicles are equipped and lean more into requesting Robotaxis with more features?


Not all taxis are created equally and there are seriously so many questions around this, but the value of FSD as an enabler of Robotaxi functionality in any given vehicle could conceivably change depending on the vehicle.