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$12K for FSD is insane

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I am convinced there are essentially three type of FSD buyers.

1. People who have no idea what they are buying but just get it anyway. Either the cost doesn't matter or they just buy into the hype. These folks don't really care if FSD works or not and probably never use any of the current features anyway.

2. People who realize FSD is a work in progress but buy it anyway to just be a part of the development effort. These folks enjoy beta testing and providing feedback to improve the product. They are fans of Tesla, Elon and want to be a part of the autonomous driving effort. They justify the cost because they feel that being part of the advancement of the technology brings them enough enjoyment like any other hobby, so it doesn't really matter if the car full self drives or not. It is the journey for them.

3. People who bought FSD and fully expected Tesla to deliver a full self driving experience in a timely fashion, regardless of what it says in the fine print. These people are pissed off. They feel they paid $5k, $7k, $10k and soon $12k but don't necessarily understand how software development cycles work, or care, which makes sense because this concept is new to the auto industry. They are also baffled that they can't transfer their FSD package to a new Tesla if they want to trade-in their vehicle. They are pissed even more when they learn that the FSD package has such a low residual value at trade-in. Then, they learn that Tesla offers FSD as a subscription now so you can drop $200 and test it for a month, figure out it is not worth it and cancel saving them $11,800.
#4: YouTubers
 
You're surprised a thread about how overpriced a thing is is dominated by folks who think it's overpriced? :)

Personally I used NoA on like 90%+ of all my driving and it's great. YMMV.

Auto lane change everyone seems to agree is fantastic, and it is.

Basic summon I've never had a reason to use. For folks with tight garages they swear by it- unsure how much use it has outside that.

Enhanced summon the range is too short, but it has worked fine when I've been able to use it- I've used it for example to have my car pull from its parking spot to an overhang near the front door of my work so I can get in without being rained on.... that's very nice. The downside is it only works if I got a close enough parking spot for the limited range of the feature.

Autopark- has always been fine for parallel parking... for perp it kinda sucked until a few months ago when they finally updated it to use vision... it's still a little slow, but WAY better about seeing spots, and noticeably quicker than it used to be to park in them- and especially nice is you can now park in spots WITHOUT other cars on either side... so I've gone from never using for perp spots (because I don't like parking between other cars and it was poor at recognizing spots anyway) to using it occasionally.

The driving computer- well yeah I got a free computer upgrade. And expect another one when HW4 is out and Tesla admits it'll need that for FSD.



And I mean, especially with the subscription available now, anyone can find out for themselves for $199 and then make their own decisions.
Well, I was basing my assessment of ‘not-ready-for-prime-time’ on more than just the complaints from users on this particular thread. The lack of consistent reliability of FSD has been well documented elsewhere in these forums and in information available from other sources.

I am willing to discount the complaints to some extent due to the persistent anti-Tesla bias in much of the media and Web, where anything that goes wrong on a Tesla is unfairly magnified and over-reported. But that does not entirely explain the volume and nature of the problems reported.

Even putting aside city driving element, I consider Tesla’s own assessment of FSD capabilities to be an admission that it is simply not ready: “Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Capability are intended for use with a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment” (from Tesla's website: Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Capability). In my view, this level of capability represents an undesirable and fundamentally unsafe mid-way point to actual FSD. The admonition that the driver must remain alert, and be ready to take over at any time, fails to recognize that the very nature of FSD is to render the driver less than totally alert and ready to take over. That is because the driver is no longer engaged in the moment-by-moment exercise of driving. Alertness to potential problems will tend to be less and reaction times will tend to be longer. I have real misgivings about the current version of Tesla FSD from that viewpoint.

In my view, actual ‘ready-for-prime-time’ FSD would involve (at least):

1. A rate of unreliability and inaccuracy in day-to-day driving situations much lower than currently reported. FSD that works ‘much of the time’ is not good enough. It has to work, and be at least as good as human driving, pretty much all of the time.

2. Point #1 would also have to extend beyond day-to-day situations and be true also of manoeuvres to respond to sudden emergencies. Since the driver is almost inevitably not going to be as fully engaged as they would be if they were actually driving, FSD has to be at least as good as an actually-engaged human in avoiding accidents due to a suddenly arising situation.

3. An predictive ability, based on continuous assessment of the nature of the road ahead, traffic reports, weather, road conditions, light levels, and other inputs of when it will be better for the driver to take over. The driver, who (again) will almost always not be fully engaged, should be given significant notice ahead of time and not be expected to take over in a split-second. I would not expect FSD to able to be appropriate in all situations, but FSD should be able to recognize ahead of time when it is not.
 
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Got anybody that has produced more than like 1000 vehicles in the existence of the company? :)

(I kid- but not by much.... also haven't seen any actual real world testing of their system, but would be curious to see it if you've got a link)
I'm definitely watching for one. but, I haven't seen any good ones yet. Just really short ones that don't really tell me much. I also have to avoid any employee produced content as obviously its tainted. Most of the Rivians shipped so far have been to employees.

Rivian has been sending firmware updates improving it so I'm sure by the time I get mine in 2023 that I'll have a good idea of what to expect.
 
Does anyone else actually prefer driving the car themselves? I am not knocking the tech but I actually enjoy driving a car, ever since I was a teenager. I actually get annoyed when I have to be a passenger as I find it boring. Even if my Tesla could drive itself perfectly I would still prefer to drive unless I was crawling along in bumper to bumper traffic, which the included basic AP does for me now during those highway backups.

If I truly wanted a vehicle that could 100% drive itself I think I would save the $60k (45k + 12k FSD + 1,200 delivery + tax) on the least expensive Tesla and just call an Uber.

I love driving. But not every single instant I'm in my car. AP has been incredible for my bumper to bumper commutes. I used to say that despite that kind of traffic, I still loved driving stick. Now I'm happy to relegate that task to AP.

So when city autosteer (FSD beta) becomes super reliable, I can envision myself doing something else with that time, especially if the drive is mundane. I'll always find time to joyride on the right roads and conditions.
 
Even putting aside city driving element, I consider Tesla’s own assessment of FSD capabilities to be an admission that it is simply not ready: “Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Capability are intended for use with a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment” (from Tesla's website: Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Capability). In my view, this level of capability represents an undesirable and fundamentally unsafe mid-way point to actual FSD. The admonition that the driver must remain alert, and be ready to take over at any time, fails to recognize that the very nature of FSD is to render the driver less than totally alert and ready to take over. That is because the driver is no longer engaged in the moment-by-moment exercise of driving. Alertness to potential problems will tend to be less and reaction times will tend to be longer. I have real misgivings about the current version of Tesla FSD from that viewpoint.

Years of actual data of publicly released features show this claim is fundamentally untrue.

AP has been this way since launch (an L2 system requiring an attentive driver), and we have year after year after year of data showing lower accident rates using it than not.

By removing the tasks of making all the little micro adjustments to steering and throttle for long highway trips for example your brain has morebandwidth to actually pay attention to what's going on around the vehicle.

Further, since the system can see 360 degrees at all times, and you can't, it'll catch things you wouldn't.


In my view, actual ‘ready-for-prime-time’ FSD would involve (at least):

1. A rate of unreliability and inaccuracy in day-to-day driving situations much lower than currently reported. FSD that works ‘much of the time’ is not good enough. It has to work, and be at least as good as human driving, pretty much all of the time.

You again seem to be confusing a limited-release beta test with the actual public FSD offering that has been in wide release for years now and works very well and is the thing whose price is increasing to 12k per the thread title.



2. Point #1 would also have to extend beyond day-to-day situations and be true also of manoeuvres to respond to sudden emergencies. Since the driver is almost inevitably not going to be as fully engaged as they would be if they were actually driving, FSD has to be at least as good as an actually-engaged human in avoiding accidents due to a suddenly arising situation.


Tesla said:
In the 4th quarter, we recorded one crash for every 4.31 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety features). For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and active safety features), we recorded one crash for every 1.59 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles.


While there's a valid argument to be made comparing AP miles to non-AP miles is not precisely apples to apples, the difference in accident rate is still far lower for a Tesla on AP than other vehicles.


So again your premise a good L2 system makes the car less safe is directly contrary to all available evidence.
 
AP has been this way since launch (an L2 system requiring an attentive driver), and we have year after year after year of data showing lower accident rates using it than not.

By removing the tasks of making all the little micro adjustments to steering and throttle for long highway trips for example your brain has morebandwidth to actually pay attention to what's going on around the vehicle.

Further, since the system can see 360 degrees at all times, and you can't, it'll catch things you wouldn't.
My Y can barely stay in the middle of her lane. She gets way too close to oncoming traffic, especially in curves… independent of speed. She does not react to other cars not being in the center of their lanes, nor does she seem to understand pedestrians very well— just stopping ~20’ after she passes them.

The accident rates are not representative of much; they are comparable to other expensive cars driven primarily by people with good/longer driving histories.

Autopilot has a lot of opportunity for being great… but it hasn’t made much progress in that direction over the past few years. FSD is worse.
 
There's another detail here. People who talk about enjoying "driving" are living in the past. Way in the past.

Several people have hit it on the head. Driving from point A to Point B is now more like individual cabins hitching up to a train. The freeway. The highway, the city Boulevards, and increasingly City Streets, that are widened as much as possible. There will soon be no excuse for coupling sloppily to the caterpillar - herky jerky, bumper to bumper. And if you want to "have fun" outside the circus track, you will have to be "original", reckless, unpredictable, cause accidents and collect tickets. Judging by the crazy accidents and fatalities among human operators, it's obvious how lousy people are are cooperatively riding that train.

I'm sorry, I realize not everybody is loving the present. There are still a few hillsides to chew up with a 4x4, and some suburban spots that aren't covered in parking lots full of plastic franchise shops, connected by ribbons of asphalt. It's not all that lovable. But that's the trend.

The whole idea of "freedom" at the controls of a free-wheeling internal combustion machine is over. Like a Marlboro commercial. A Norman Rockwell painting. Like flying in barnstorming days. Now, flying is all about ALS, Glide-slope, from TCA to TCA, using autopilots of different types. Funny how things change.

I don't care. Can't beat 'em, join 'em. Look at those fat ribbons of tail-lights from above! Is that what y'all consider "fun driving"? Electric propulsion is a better match, and pollutes less. Automatic steering, lane-switching, merges, entries, exits. We're all getting older too. Don't deny it. It's rather relaxing to hand over part of the job.

I swear, the people who are now bitching about how the Tesla system won't let them sleep in the back will look back longingly at the days when there was still something fun and imperfect about operating the machine. I'm still enjoying it.
 
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Tesla is monetizing it’s assets, getting more return on a software sale is easier than building another giga factory. Also if Mr Musk does a tie up with VW then he may make FSD available for their cars....and since he charges retail for wholesale (remember the Hertz deal?)...he might as well get the price as high as possible before any VW deal
 
Well, I was basing my assessment of ‘not-ready-for-prime-time’ on more than just the complaints from users on this particular thread. The lack of consistent reliability of FSD has been well documented elsewhere in these forums and in information available from other sources.

I am willing to discount the complaints to some extent due to the persistent anti-Tesla bias in much of the media and Web, where anything that goes wrong on a Tesla is unfairly magnified and over-reported. But that does not entirely explain the volume and nature of the problems reported.

Even putting aside city driving element, I consider Tesla’s own assessment of FSD capabilities to be an admission that it is simply not ready: “Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Capability are intended for use with a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment” (from Tesla's website: Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Capability). In my view, this level of capability represents an undesirable and fundamentally unsafe mid-way point to actual FSD. The admonition that the driver must remain alert, and be ready to take over at any time, fails to recognize that the very nature of FSD is to render the driver less than totally alert and ready to take over. That is because the driver is no longer engaged in the moment-by-moment exercise of driving. Alertness to potential problems will tend to be less and reaction times will tend to be longer. I have real misgivings about the current version of Tesla FSD from that viewpoint.

In my view, actual ‘ready-for-prime-time’ FSD would involve (at least):

1. A rate of unreliability and inaccuracy in day-to-day driving situations much lower than currently reported. FSD that works ‘much of the time’ is not good enough. It has to work, and be at least as good as human driving, pretty much all of the time.

2. Point #1 would also have to extend beyond day-to-day situations and be true also of manoeuvres to respond to sudden emergencies. Since the driver is almost inevitably not going to be as fully engaged as they would be if they were actually driving, FSD has to be at least as good as an actually-engaged human in avoiding accidents due to a suddenly arising situation.

3. An predictive ability, based on continuous assessment of the nature of the road ahead, traffic reports, weather, road conditions, light levels, and other inputs of when it will be better for the driver to take over. The driver, who (again) will almost always not be fully engaged, should be given significant notice ahead of time and not be expected to take over in a split-second. I would not expect FSD to able to be appropriate in all situations, but FSD should be able to recognize ahead of time when it is not.

People who don't use a system, or who have very limited experience with it, should honestly not pollute the discussion about its "quality", let alone its "value". Personally, it took me a long time in Early 2019 to learn to use NOA, and now "FSD Beta" effectively. I don't believe a 1 month trial gives the user a sense of how best to take advantage of the machine. The lack of commitment even encourages "giving up" at the slightest inconsequential issue. I think a short hands-on training course in using the Tesla automation would have been be very useful to me, and would help others now.

As to equating Beta warnings regarding possible bugs/problems with admitting that the system is likely to fail, that's like reading the red warnings printed on stepladders or axe handles (that arose from a climate of litigious opportunism), as assurance that the design is flawed and out to kill you.

We use stepladders cautiously, and the warnings may even have been useful in that respect. Anyone who regularly uses something like FSD Beta knows it's unprecedented AI that's under development, and that it commands attention. That's not to say it's failing right and left, or useless. As when riding a bike, there's no "mid-point". Crap happens. You'd be foolish to not retain skills for dealing with a flat tire or to forget defensive driving. I'm not even that dedicated a Beta Tester/logger. Those of us who use these driver assists regularly, use them because they are helpful.
 
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My Y can barely stay in the middle of her lane. She gets way too close to oncoming traffic, especially in curves…

On regular AP?

I ask, because the manual explicitly states AP is not intended to be used on roads with oncoming traffic- so that's user error.

nor does she seem to understand pedestrians very well

With regular AP? Again, user error. AP is not intended to be used around pedestrians. This is explicitly stated in the owners manual.


If you're talking about the narrow release beta- well, it's unclear why given you're replying to a post about the safety stats of the public wide-release AP product.
 
There's another detail here. People who talk about enjoying "driving" are living in the past. Way in the past.

Several people have hit it on the head. Driving from point A to Point B is now more like individual cabins hitching up to a train. The freeway. The highway, the city Boulevards, and increasingly City Streets, that are widened as much as possible. There will soon be no excuse for coupling sloppily to the caterpillar - herky jerky, bumper to bumper. And if you want to "have fun" outside the circus track, you will have to be "original", reckless, unpredictable, cause accidents and collect tickets. Judging by the crazy accidents and fatalities among human operators, it's obvious how lousy people are are cooperatively riding that train.

I'm sorry, I realize not everybody is loving the present. There are still a few hillsides to chew up with a 4x4, and some suburban spots that aren't covered in parking lots full of plastic franchise shops, connected by ribbons of asphalt. It's not all that lovable. But that's the trend.

The whole idea of "freedom" at the controls of a free-wheeling internal combustion machine is over. Like a Marlboro commercial. A Norman Rockwell painting. Like flying in barnstorming days. Now, flying is all about ALS, Glide-slope, from TCA to TCA, using autopilots of different types. Funny how things change.

I don't care. Can't beat 'em, join 'em. Look at those fat ribbons of tail-lights from above! Is that what y'all consider "fun driving"? Electric propulsion is a better match, and pollutes less. Automatic steering, lane-switching, merges, entries, exits. We're all getting older too. Don't deny it. It's rather relaxing to hand over part of the job.

I swear, the people who are now bitching about how the Tesla system won't let them sleep in the back will look back longingly at the days when there was still something fun and imperfect about operating the machine. I'm still enjoying it.
I know it is hard to believe, but not everybody with a Tesla lives in California. There are many opportunities to enjoy driving in the rest of the world. And I rarely drive on a Freeway or on a Tollway.
 
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There's another detail here. People who talk about enjoying "driving" are living in the past. Way in the past.

Several people have hit it on the head. Driving from point A to Point B is now more like individual cabins hitching up to a train. The freeway. The highway, the city Boulevards, and increasingly City Streets, that are widened as much as possible. There will soon be no excuse for coupling sloppily to the caterpillar - herky jerky, bumper to bumper. And if you want to "have fun" outside the circus track, you will have to be "original", reckless, unpredictable, cause accidents and collect tickets. Judging by the crazy accidents and fatalities among human operators, it's obvious how lousy people are are cooperatively riding that train.

I'm sorry, I realize not everybody is loving the present. There are still a few hillsides to chew up with a 4x4, and some suburban spots that aren't covered in parking lots full of plastic franchise shops, connected by ribbons of asphalt. It's not all that lovable. But that's the trend.

The whole idea of "freedom" at the controls of a free-wheeling internal combustion machine is over. Like a Marlboro commercial. A Norman Rockwell painting. Like flying in barnstorming days. Now, flying is all about ALS, Glide-slope, from TCA to TCA, using autopilots of different types. Funny how things change.

I don't care. Can't beat 'em, join 'em. Look at those fat ribbons of tail-lights from above! Is that what y'all consider "fun driving"? Electric propulsion is a better match, and pollutes less. Automatic steering, lane-switching, merges, entries, exits. We're all getting older too. Don't deny it. It's rather relaxing to hand over part of the job.

I swear, the people who are now bitching about how the Tesla system won't let them sleep in the back will look back longingly at the days when there was still something fun and imperfect about operating the machine. I'm still enjoying it.
If I could do something else while driving I might prefer that. That’s the future thou. And if I’m engaged in the act of driving the current car, on the highway, makes me impatient. It’s not going around slow cars, or is trying to go around cars I don’t want it to. The auto lane change has problems. Plus, now, it has phantom breaking and a top speed of 80.

I’ll be happy to see the future someday. But right now Im not living in the past.
 
How Tesla can continue to legally sell something that doesn't exist is mind boggling to me... My guess here is because they moved the actual working features under FSD (auto-park/autopilot being the main things) they can claim it's not actually vaporware... All I know is Elon is a liar, and don't give me this "he just overestimates the capabilities of his team" crap, he lies. He's been lying since the first Model S rolled off the line and the list of lies now is quite long. I just wonder how much longer he can keep this charade up before people figure it out and Tesla "evaporates" almost overnight. Then again, I've wondered that for the better part of 4 years and Tesla continues to grow by leaps and bounds so who knows. Clearly not me... LOL :)

Jeff
 
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How Tesla can continue to legally sell something that doesn't exist is mind boggling to me...

How people keep falsely claiming they're selling something that doesn't exist is mind boggling to me.

Especially when this factually untrue claim has been explicitly debunked repeatedly in this very thread.

6 of the 7 promised features of the current FSD package are in wide release, and have been for years.

The 7th exists, but is still in narrow-release beta testing. No shortage of videos out there showing owners testing it, so that it exists is self evident.
 
Does anyone else actually prefer driving the car themselves? I am not knocking the tech but I actually enjoy driving a car, ever since I was a teenager. I actually get annoyed when I have to be a passenger as I find it boring. Even if my Tesla could drive itself perfectly I would still prefer to drive unless I was crawling along in bumper to bumper traffic, which the included basic AP does for me now during those highway backups.

If I truly wanted a vehicle that could 100% drive itself I think I would save the $60k (45k + 12k FSD + 1,200 delivery + tax) on the least expensive Tesla and just call an Uber.
It’s a use case thing. I love love love driving. I’ve driven moving vans and such for friends and they buy me a plane ticket back. I drive every chance I get and friends let me drive their cars because they know I just love to drive. Driving in traffic doesn’t bother me (if I’m not late). Big boat of a car/van/truck is still fun. Driving in rain and snow allows me to play with traction limits (and controlled slides) if no other drivers are around to scare. And so hopefully that helps establish that I love driving this car manually as well

But with that said, I don’t want to drive 24/7. There are times I wish I could multitask, like work while just getting from point a to b, or grab something from the backseat, or take a nap because of an all-nighter, or long drives/road trips that I want to zone out and not worry about driving. That’s when I want to have a reliable FSD available.
 
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6 of the 7 promised features of the current FSD package are in wide release, and have been for years.

The 7th exists, but is still in narrow-release beta testing. No shortage of videos out there showing owners testing it, so that it exists is self evident.
But they are not. This just is not true. One, you have to first EARN the right to be put in the beta by getting a 99+ score. THEN IF you live in an area they decide to pick for you then you can use a system that is less than 100% delivered as promised.

Let's be VERY clear it IS NOT in wide release and hasn't been for years. It is in VERY limited release however they will let EVERYONE buy it that is stupid enough to not research what you are actually buying.