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15 degrees, snowing [discussion on energy situation in Texas]

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Yep. For the price of 1GW of nuclear you can have ~15GW of gas turbines. The odds that of those 15GW of turbines at least 1GW will be available is 99.9999%. The odds of that 1GW of nuclear being available is apparently ~75% since Texas lost 1/4th of it's nuclear capacity.

Build gas turbines, build wind, build solar. Use renewables to reduce fuel burn. Use gas turbines when needed to keep the lights on. Use nuclear.... I... I honestly have no idea what nuclear is good for..... jobs? I guess jobs?

Those numbers may have been true decades ago but the Levelized Cost Of Electricity (LCOE) per MWh in the United States for nuclear is lower than coal and only slightly higher than NG (Levelized Costs of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (eia.gov)). Advanced nuclear reactors are cost competitive and even beat NG (https://www.innovationreform.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Advanced-Nuclear-Reactors-Cost-Study.pdf).

It's more comparable to say 1GW of nuclear is cost comparative to 1.3GW of natural gas. Using those numbers nuclear fares far better than NG in the current Texas scenario and has no greenhouse gas emissions concerns. So that's what nuclear is good for.
 
Those numbers may have been true decades ago but the Levelized Cost Of Electricity (LCOE) per MWh in the United States for nuclear is lower than coal and only slightly higher than NG (Levelized Costs of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (eia.gov)). Advanced nuclear reactors are cost competitive and even beat NG (https://www.innovationreform.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Advanced-Nuclear-Reactors-Cost-Study.pdf).

It's more comparable to say 1GW of nuclear is cost comparative to 1.3GW of natural gas. Using those numbers nuclear fares far better than NG in the current Texas scenario and has no greenhouse gas emissions concerns. So that's what nuclear is good for.

For nuclear plants built 30 years ago sure. But not if you want to add more. Vogtle will be lucky if its LCOE is < $200/MWh (Which is absolutely insane). I stopped believing in nuclear cost projections 5 years ago when Summer was canceled and Vogtle past the 2x budget number. Build the plant... THEN show how much it cost to build and I'll believe it.

Vogtle is on track to cost > $30B for ~2GW and has taken > 10 years to complete. You can have have 30GW of gas turbines ready to go in less than a year for < $30B if you order by next Wednesday... they're two steps from being on Amazon prime. When you need standby power to prevent backouts $/MWh is meaningless. You need GW not GWh.



Screen Shot 2021-02-17 at 10.55.08 PM.png
 
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For nuclear plants built 30 years ago sure. But not if you want to add more. Vogtle will be lucky if its LCOE is < $200/MWh. I stopped believing in nuclear cost projections 5 years ago when Summer was canceled and Vogtle past the 2x budget number. Build the plant... THEN show how much it cost to build and I'll believe it.



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where did you get that neat chart?
 
For nuclear plants built 30 years ago sure. But not if you want to add more. Vogtle will be lucky if its LCOE is < $200/MWh (Which is absolutely insane). I stopped believing in nuclear cost projections 5 years ago when Summer was canceled and Vogtle past the 2x budget number. Build the plant... THEN show how much it cost to build and I'll believe it.

Vogtle is on track to cost > $30B for ~2GW and has taken > 10 years to complete. You can have have 30GW of gas turbines ready to go in less than a year for < $30B if you order by next Wednesday... they're two steps from being on Amazon prime. When you need standby power to prevent backouts $/MWh is meaningless. You need GW not GWh.
View attachment 637751

Vogtle and Summer are fair criticisms, both are (were?) a disaster. Though I'm hesitant put all of nuclear in to the same bucket given the relative successes of AP1000 reactors overseas I completely understand the need for demonstrable proof that the cost estimates are indeed realtiy.

The Lazard data you shared has LCOE for nuclear at 3x what the EIA has for "advanced nuclear" which conveniently is 2x AP1000s. China's Sanmen, the very first one, was 2x AP1000s reportedly built for $7.65b (CNY 50b) though of course I'm extremely skeptical of any China numbers. IF you take it at face value that's $3500/kw capex for 2200MW at 90% capacity factor when NG has a capacity factor 2/3 of that. I think but not sure if the Lazard data reflects that piece as there's no capacity factor footnote on page 10 (which makes me think it's not normalized).
 
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Is natural gas still flowing to peoples’ homes at a normal rate/pressure? Enough to power, say, a whole-house NG generator? I would be quite upset if I had planned and installed a NG generator, only to find that not only was the power out, but NG was too.
 
We’re not prepared for it because why would we be? [user from Texas]

As Earth approaches the flipping point of CO2/Methane infestation climactic disasters will occur that when observed by a 100 year old human appear mind-boggling whereas a 20 year old takes it in stride. Like the frog in a pot of water heating up on a cookstove. Will the frog jump out of the pot in time? When we reach the flipping point we might as well jump out of Earth and head for Mars.
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It is interesting how if you live in one area of the country, you don't fully understand some of the issues in another part of the country.
I am guilty of this. Seeing all of the issues the people in Texas are having, burst pipes in their houses and even the frozen pools outside and the problems that will cause. I felt empathy for the people dealing with Hurricane Harvey, but a cold snap with temperatures in the teens didn't strike me as that bad. Now that I am seeing pictures of what is happening throughout the mid-west as far south as Texas and likely Mexico as well, I am reminded that we all need to join and work together and help each other.

About power generation, I read an article about SpaceX's Boca Chica facility during this cold snap.
SpaceX Starship factory battles Texas power outages with Tesla solar and storage

Maybe the utilities, government and regulators need to wake up and realize we have a problem that will affect everyone!
 
With regards to nuclear power, there are many issues. The design and running of a nuke plant can (eventually) be done well enough to avoid issues. The real question for me, is what happens after the 50 or 75 years of operation. That plant/area is now contaminated for 100,000 years or so. Isn't that basically kicking the proverbially can down the road?

As Fukashima has showed us, humans can make some really silly decisions. Building a 20 foot seawall for an 50 foot tsunami, tends not to do much although it does save on costs. Combining that with putting the generators in the basement and putting the fuel tanks for those emergency generators are ground level, plus other brilliant plant engineering decisions led to the disaster.
 
Regarding the pool equipment are you referring to pipes in the ground?

above ground equipment pumps, filters, heaters, heat pumps (some people cool their pool here!). we just run our pool equipment in freeze protect mode, so it will run 100% of the time when it is below freezing. well that didn't work to well with the rolling power outages...

agree @Puma2020, humans can be stupid. the primary backup should have been desiged to run under those circumstances, and the sould be secondary backup generator 10 miles inland, with cables underground. radio active heavy metals in the food supply will cause organ damage, but background radiation does not concern me that much. if a navy nuclear operator takes their radiation badge to the beach, it will be saturated with a lifetime dose of radiation and they will be court martialed. but i don't have a third leg from going to the beach all summer long as a kid in southern California. And those "healing pool" people travel the world to go to are highly radio active!

with fuel powered plants 90% of the cost of operation is fuel... now i don't know the cost of nuclear fuel.

Griddy sounds good, but you never really know what u will pay. i would NEVER sign up for a program like that! i hope your buddy banked his saving...
 
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If many homes did not have power, and with those temps. any issues with pipes in home bursting?

This was the most illustrative article (video and photo) of what many are likely facing. You never want to be in this situation but many likely had no control over it (if you didn’t own the property for example or build the infrastructure).
Ice hangs off ceiling fan in Texas, one of many surreal winter photos

We had a friend whose mom back in Illinois had her two story home pretty much destroyed from a severe cold snap while she was away on vacation out of country for a few weeks. People think it’s great to escape the cold but then you could be unlucky to come home to what she did. The pipe burst on her upper floor (probably attic run) and by the time she got home not only was there terrible loss of her belongings on all levels (two story home) but her basement was filled with water and she had structural issues as well with ceiling and some floor collapse. She had to live elsewhere for months, forgot how long it took and then dealing with insurance to recover some costs and to rebuild. Mold issues were another issue. This lady in the ceiling fan article literally has water running down her walls and coming out of her overhead electrical connections like the ceiling fan. Serious stuff. With some of Texas in hot, humid conditions at other times I would think mold will be an issue for many after pipe bursts.

Plumbers are already seeing overwhelming calls on burst pipes and construction firms will be busy for the foreseeable future on repairs. That mold issue is going to be one of the more serious issues facing people if not removed and continues to grow in the hot, humid weather given the health issues associated with toxic mold.
 
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If many homes did not have power, and with those temps. any issues with pipes in home bursting?

Yes, lots. Seeing stories/photos online of frozen toilets, tubs, icicles coming off ceiling fans from leaks, flooded rooms, people who know their pipes are frozen but don’t have leaks yet. It’s going to get a lot worse as the temp comes back up/power and heat comes back and things start to thaw. Hopefully people know where their main shutoff valve is...
 
Seeing stories/photos online of frozen toilets, tubs, icicles coming off ceiling fans from leaks, flooded rooms, people who know their pipes are frozen but don’t have leaks yet. It’s going to get a lot worse as the temp comes back up/power and heat comes back and things start to thaw. Hopefully people know where their main shutoff valve is...

As I am not in the construction nor plumbing business, I was wondering if others knew whether PEX would handle the freezing/thawing better than copper?
 
As I am not in the construction nor plumbing business, I was wondering if others knew whether PEX would handle the freezing/thawing better than copper?

PEX is pretty much standard on new construction here and has been for years, but there are just so many older homes with copper or other materials that it is a major widespread problem. And the problems will be concentrated just based on neighborhood ages.
 
Is natural gas still flowing to peoples’ homes at a normal rate/pressure? Enough to power, say, a whole-house NG generator? I would be quite upset if I had planned and installed a NG generator, only to find that not only was the power out, but NG was too.

At my relatives, in Austin, the gas flow is dramatically lower. It was enough to make their fireplace work, which was their sole source of heat, but not enough to boil water quickly or cook with high heat on the range.

I imagine this also means flow would not power a generator. And if it were me I would be pissed to sit there staring at a gas-powered generator I could not use.

On a side note, this is the reason we added Powerwalls. My wife wanted to ensure I would not be pissed starting at solar panels we could not use on a sunny day to power the home when the grid went down.:mad:
 
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FWIW, my daughter in Austin, texted us yesterday regarding their water shutoff. Turns out the neighbor had a burst pipe and in a panic went to the street and started shutting off every water valve they could find. My daughter happened to be talking to the neighbor later and on a hunch went to the water box. Sure enough, her house's water was off. She turned it back on and they had no leaks, so they were able to have water for the first time in 2 days. People in her house were cheering. Strange how not having water makes you appreciate being able to flush the toilet.
 
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