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15K Model X delivered next year

Discussion in 'Model X' started by Cosmacelf, Sep 19, 2014.

  1. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Active Member

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    On Fox Business yesterday, Elon was being interviewed and said that he feels good about forecasting 15,000 model X being delivered next year. 20,000 if everything goes right. He said that they have basically pre-sold all their 2015 Model X production. So if you order one now, don't expect it until 2016...
     
  2. KJD

    KJD Member

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    Sweet, I really would like to see Tesla hit these numbers.

    As the Model X number go up, so you think the Model S number will do down or stay about the same?
     
  3. Nubo

    Nubo Test Mule

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    They might want to update their web page then. Still saying Fall 2015, not Winter; much less 2016!


     
  4. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Active Member

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    Well, if everything goes right, fall 2015 is still a possibility for orders today.
     
  5. Genebe

    Genebe Member

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    Depends if the X is that much better. SUVs attract a whole different market than sedans. Porsche knows that, and also found a new cash-cow with the Cayenne, which sells better than anything else they build. http://press.porsche.com/news/release.php?id=751

    Interestingly, the introduction of the Cayenne didn't seem to effect 911 sales.
     
  6. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    If Model S sales become at-all slower, they surely will produce and sell Model X to make up for it - since the orders are in. I doubt the term "sold out" applies - it may be that they planned to produce and sell 15K but could react to any market demand. Note that they also put in the ER release that they could be delivering 2000 per week by end of 2015. That is far more than a 15k sales total of Model X.
     
  7. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    If X=Cayenne then S=Panamera.

    On the subject though, I don't think X sales will cannibalize S sales, as long as Tesla can increase production accordingly.
     
  8. Cottonwood

    Cottonwood Roadster#433, Model S#S37

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    Take a look at Model X Tally - Summary Numbers. There are now over 20k reservations world wide. Even with a 25% attrition rate, that is still over 15k, and that means the 15k first year is already sold out.
     
  9. Jeeps17

    Jeeps17 Cath Jockey in a P85

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    An AWD option for the model S would nicely eliminate "sales steal" from the X.

    The choice then becomes sedan or SUV.
     
  10. Smallfootprint

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    True but like with the model S roll-out they'll go country by country for homologation reasons, although I expect it to be faster this time and maybe in a different order. I'd still guess that a US Model X order today will probably arrive before a RHD model X order a year ago.
     
  11. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    #11 richkae, Sep 19, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2014
    Except they don't compare nearly as well as the S and X do.
    The Cayenne starts $30K less than the Panamera. That changes the market a lot.
    If you want a Porsche family car, and you dont want to spend $80K+ the only option is the Cayenne.


    I am seriously considering trading in my S on the X. If the X and S both existed 2 years ago, I would have probably chosen the X.
    That is one X sale that would have cannibalized the S.
     
  12. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    The term sold out means they cannot make more and will reach the limit of the delivery goal. But sold-out does not mean cannot-sell-more. If they can deliver 2000 per week by end of 2015 (per the ER and Elon), then they could indeed deliver 4000 MX per month, perhaps - December, November and October alone would be 12K. And that is half of the delivery rate they are shooting for to end 2015. I think sold out is a bad way to word Model X for 2015 and Elon did himself a disservice by saying that on Fox Business News - it just makes it sound like you can't get one when I bet if you order a Model X now - you will have it long before December 2015. Why would they want to only sell 15K next year? That is actually counter to what a growing company wants to do - they want to sell more. The primary question I have is how much will MX cost? If it is of a certain pricing, I would order one myself for mid-2016 delivery. Otherwise, I'm still waiting for an affordable CUV/SUV style BEV or even EREV. Some folks here did say they reserved both a Signature and Production model so there will be some slippage from the reservation number. Others have moved from waiting on MX to buying an MS now.
     
  13. ElectricLove

    ElectricLove Member

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    I would imagine the Model S number will go down with many buyers opting for the X instead of the S, but maybe not if the "wait-list" is over a year b/c buyers may prefer to just buy what is actually "available"... I'd imagine if availability were equal the X would hurt S sales.
     
  14. ohmman

    ohmman Maximum Plaid Member

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    There is also the potential for reservation holders to bail on their reservation once the MX is officially released. I don't plan to do so, but I can see situations where it could happen. That 20k number could drop to 15k...
     
  15. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    It has been said that they are anti-selling MX now and urging customers to purchase Model S. If they get a lag of MS orders waiting on the MX, then the talk of the MX being "sold out" for 2015 could be a play on words to setup more Model S sales in first half of next year. My take is they do need to start receiving substantial Q1 orders now or else have a slight problem with keeping up with the sales rate of Q4. All markets are open now for MS (well, except Russia, I guess) so all sales in 2015 should be new orders and not backlog.
     
  16. Earlian

    Earlian Member

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    Makes sense. While Tesla isn't in this business over decades -like Porsche- the new model is not only a bigger Tesla: It is Tesla's ALLNEWUPGRADED Version of a THE future car. Like iphone 4 was to iphone 3. So i think i am not the only one who didnt let his ears fill with the "sell talk" and decided to wait (reserve) for the X and who is not buying the S now.

    The X will be better in so many ways, so you will not want a 1 year old Tesla2 (ModelS) in 2015! You will want this brand new Tesla3 (ModelX)!
    So i do understand the idea of holding back the Model X buyers, but they will do much better by finally speeding up the Model X production.

    Greetings
    Earl
     
  17. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    Absolutely, Earlian. I think the best thing Musk could do is to pump out a news flash in October saying "surprise, Model X ships today! (at the Detroit auto show)" Not only would that be a nice shock to the system and get the MX flowing to market in the colder months but also indicate they can under-promise and over-deliver. In the mean time, I suspect that AWD Model S will appear relatively soon for reservation and maybe January delivery. I have a friend of a friend (you know the drill) who interned at Tesla a while back. They said that the old assembly line was being reworked for Model X production. I suspect the new high speed line will do Model S and the old line can do Model X in tandem and how long does it really take to finish up Model X anyway? It's just an electric car - couple wires and you're done! :)
     
  18. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

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    Model X and Model S will be produced on both lines. That's been publicly stated multiple times (and I've seen the lines).

    As far as shipping the Model X in October ... nice idea, but no. It's not just a few wires :). Those darn body panels take nice big dies for stamping out parts. The pits have been readied for the dies, but the dies aren't yet made. (Early Model X demos will not have stamped parts.) Crash tests need to be conducted. Pesky details like that. And early reservation holders would have already been contacted and asked to configure if October deliveries were going to commence. That has not happened, either.

    Everyone is anxious, including me. But I think we'll see deliveries in the spring.
     

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