'16 Volt or '?? Model 3?

[MassModel3]

Would you _really_ believe Elon Musk if he said today that the Model 3 would be released in Fall 2017?

Release dates with Tesla are tough to nail down even after they've happened! The X will be officially released on the 29th, but it'll still be a long while until the X is in the hands of the reservation holders. It's more of an unveiling than an actual release, in my opinion.

With most product manufacturers, release dates are when the product will be available in sufficient quantity for whoever wants that product. I do believe that Tesla will technically release the Model 3 in 2017, but I don't think they will deliver more than a limited number of them. They can still say they hit their deadline this time while still not handing them over to the masses of reservation holders. But yes, I for one think that a lucky few will be driving Model 3's for Christmas.

It seems to me that those wanting to drive electric now probably won't go wrong with a 3 year lease right now. Most Model 3 reservation holders won't get theirs until 2018 anyway. And if the dates don't line up well (Tesla could surprise us!), I think Tesla was letting Model S buyers push back their delivery dates, so I'd expect the same option here.

 

[ElectricLove]

I wouldn't count on Model 3 being below $40K or for it being available before 2018/2019, maybe even 2020...

And for a 300 miles range, consider this; Tesla just released the Roadster 3.0 battery, it is a 70kwh battery (about what a Model 3 would need for a real 300 miles range) and they are selling it "at cost" for $29K, if that is at cost on the battery you can rest assured adding in the rest of the drivetrain components will bring the costs to right around $35K before even factoring in the actual vehicle and all that goes into it... Assuming they sell "at cost" (which is a stupid thing to do anyways) they'll be closing in on $50K... Assuming they sell it "at profit" like any speculator of their stock as an investment would be banking on, I think you can expect a $50-60K price-point...

Assuming battery costs come down, quite a bit, you can likely expect a $40-50K price tag, realistically...

Which of course they will (dishonestly) quote after tax-credit, while they just as dishonestly over-quote the range. Ask Roadster owners how many really have ever gotten 245 miles on a charge?

I reflect on the Roadster b/c that is the vehicle I owned until just this last week...

 

[MassModel3]

I wouldn't count on Model 3 being below $40K or for it being available before 2018/2019, maybe even 2020...

And for a 300 miles range, consider this; Tesla just released the Roadster 3.0 battery, it is a 70kwh battery (about what a Model 3 would need for a real 300 miles range) and they are selling it "at cost" for $29K, if that is at cost on the battery you can rest assured adding in the rest of the drivetrain components will bring the costs to right around $35K before even factoring in the actual vehicle and all that goes into it... Assuming they sell "at cost" (which is a stupid thing to do anyways) they'll be closing in on $50K... Assuming they sell it "at profit" like any speculator of their stock as an investment would be banking on, I think you can expect a $50-60K price-point...

Assuming battery costs come down, quite a bit, you can likely expect a $40-50K price tag, realistically...

Which of course they will (dishonestly) quote after tax-credit, while they just as dishonestly over-quote the range. Ask Roadster owners how many really have ever gotten 245 miles on a charge?

I reflect on the Roadster b/c that is the vehicle I owned until just this last week...

That Tesla press release also said:
The price of the battery upgrade is $29,000, including all labor and logistics, which is equal to Tesla's expected cost. It is not our intention to make a profit on the battery pack. The reason the cost per kWh is higher than a Model S battery is due to the almost entirely hand-built, low-volume (only 2 or 3 per week) nature of Roadster battery packs. It also includes additional work to remove, upgrade, and reinstall the power electronics module (PEM.)

I'm pretty sure the Model 3 battery packs won't be low volume nor hand built, and after-market labor is always more extensive (and expensive) than when the vehicle is being initially assembled in the factory. I think, therefore, your analogy is flawed. An equivilent Model 3 battery should be significantly less than the $29K.

 

[Red Sage]

But you're burning GASOLINE.

This.

 

[Model 3]

I'm pretty sure the Model 3 battery packs won't be low volume nor hand built, and after-market labor is always more extensive (and expensive) than when the vehicle is being initially assembled in the factory. I think, therefore, your analogy is flawed. An equivilent Model 3 battery should be significantly less than the $29K.

And don't forget that the TM3 batteries - both the cells and the pack - will be made in the GF-I. And that alone would reduce the price pr. kWh by at least 30% compared to todays automatic build TMS batteries. Someone else may calculate the saving vs a hand-build Roadster battery

 

[EVNow]

But you're burning GASOLINE.

gasoline

oil refined in such a way as to destroy the atmosphere we're all breathing in all day long, every single day

Exactly. This is the reason a lot of us jumped in 5 years ago when the first highway capable EV that would work appeared, instead waiting for the ideal.

Esp. given cheap leases (thanks to $7.5k tax credit that can all be applied on a 2 year lease) leasing EVs as you wait for your ideal EV is easy. I pay just $125 a month for my Leaf lease, for eg ($2k down) - though the first one in 2011 cost more like $350.

 

[Skotty]

I wouldn't even try to compare the cost of the Roadster battery upgrade to anything else. There aren't very many Roadsters, so a limited production run of upgraded batteries are going to be really high in cost. They might say they are selling them "at cost", but I bet they are adding in R&D and tooling (as that IS part of the cost) for the limited production run in a packaging that is older tech that hasn't benefited from iterative improvements. Also they are using current generation batteries, not Gigafactory batteries which should be much cheaper per cell.

 

[S'toon]

Turns out the '16 Volt is going to be delayed until next year unless you live in 11 states.

I read a report that they're going to further modify it for the '17 year.

 

[MassModel3]

Turns out the '16 Volt is going to be delayed until next year unless you live in 11 states.

Hmmm... Well I only live in 1 state. :wink:

 

[S'toon]

Hmmm... Well I only live in 1 state. :wink:

Yeah, I was feeling a bit to lazy to go look it up which ones.

According to the American carmaker, the state of California will be the first to receive the 2016 Volts, followed by 10 other states that follow the California Air Resources Board (CARB) laws. These 10 states include Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

Although Pennsylvania and Washington are two other states that have adopted CARB legislation, which requires manufacturers to meet stricter emission standards than the EPA, they are not part of the initial rollout of the 2016 Chevrolet Volt.

http://masterherald.com/2016-chevro...de-available-initially-on-11-us-states/26459/

 

[smorgasbord]

And don't forget that the TM3 batteries - both the cells and the pack - will be made in the GF-I. And that alone would reduce the price pr. kWh by at least 30% compared to todays automatic build TMS batteries. Someone else may calculate the saving vs a hand-build Roadster battery

Where was it said that the GF was going to produce anything other than raw cells? And even if true, why would building the pack in the GF be cheaper than building it anywhere else in the states? Labor rates less in Nevada than Calif?

The Model 3 won't have close to 7000 cells, as Models S&X do. The chassis footprint isn't large enough.

The GF will likely produce cells larger than the 18650s Tesla uses today. 20700 or thereabouts is the best guess. That means less cells for a given capacity, which should reduce pack wiring and construction costs.

But, Model 3 won't get 300 miles on a charge. Elon said 200, but hard to know if that's Elon miles, Tesla Ideal Miles on a Range Charge, 50 MPH no headwind range, etc. It's certainly not actual miles nor even EPA 5-cycle test miles.

As for cost, Model 3 replacements will be cheaper per kWh than Roadster. Even Model S will be cheaper, but it'll be interesting to see if after Model 3 comes out whether Tesla treats Model S owners better than they've treated Roadster owners recently.

 

[bigbear]

As far as price goes, we're pretty much looking at the same for the base Volt vs base M3 right?

 

[Twiglett]

As far as price goes, we're pretty much looking at the same for the base Volt vs base M3 right?

Who knows what it will be at time of M3 launch.
All we know is what GM sell the current Volt for. When the M3 releases we could be at the end of the lifecycle of the 2017(18?) Volt.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Where was it said that the GF was going to produce anything other than raw cells? And even if true, why would building the pack in the GF be cheaper than building it anywhere else in the states? Labor rates less in Nevada than Calif?

It was pretty clear during the gigafactory announcement that they would produce cells, modules and packs directly at the gigafactory and ship finished packs to Fremont.
http://insideevs.com/tesla-motors-gigafactory-announcement/

 

[igotzzoom]

Who knows what it will be at time of M3 launch.
All we know is what GM sell the current Volt for. When the M3 releases we could be at the end of the lifecycle of the 2017(18?) Volt.

The Volt is brand-new for 2016. I don't expect an ALL-new Volt until 2020 or 2021. There will probably be incremental updates in range and equipment, but not a full redesign until then.

 

[S'toon]

Where was it said that the GF was going to produce anything other than raw cells? And even if true, why would building the pack in the GF be cheaper than building it anywhere else in the states? Labor rates less in Nevada than Calif?

Elon said 200, but hard to know if that's Elon miles, Tesla Ideal Miles on a Range Charge, 50 MPH no headwind range, etc. It's certainly not actual miles nor even EPA 5-cycle test miles.

I believe Elon's wording was 200 real world miles.

 

[TslaIsFuture]

I believe Elon's wording was 200 real world miles.

Actually. Musk recently said that the M3 would have at least 250mile range. I anticipate that will continue to creep up as tech gets better and gigafactory comes in to play. We have 2 years before production begins, and in the EV segment, that is a massive amount of time for significant advances in battery tech. I am optimistic that even given Tsla slight exaggeration of time lines and range, we will see at least a 250mile real world range on M3 by end of 2017.

 

[favo]

From another thread:

I think it was in the Q4 2014 earnings call. I'll look for it and get back with a link.

Edit:
So it was actually from the Ending Range Anxiety presentation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXADb8gE9RU&app=desktop

16 minutes in

"I do think that 200 miles is kind of a minimum threshold for an electric car, but it does need to be a true 200 miles. You know, it can't bee 200 miles if you are traveling at 35 mph on level ground with the air conditioning off, you know, in warm weather. It's got to be 200 miles that you can count on. So, I think that's an important factor, and that's kind of a passing grade. Anything below that is probably not a passing grade. Ideally, people are looking for a bit more than that, at least twenty to thirty percent more than that. So, that's why we tend to favor a range above 250 miles, and closer to 300 miles, as what people really find convenient."

 

[dgpcolorado]

Actually. Musk recently said that the M3 would have at least 250mile range...

Really? Where? Can't recall seeing that.

Not that I'd be surprised if the base Model 3 did have a 250 mile EPA range.

 

[winfield100]

i got a Volt December 2013. 3.3max L2 charging (10 miles per hour). uncomfortable seats so not so hot for long distance travel and "Even when the battery is full, it's almost empty"
Model 3 for me