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rolosrevenge
Dr. EVS
flankspeed8
Member
As much as I was wrong on the initial 100k prediction, I would still say not a chance for 1 million by the q1 call. The hype of the lines and the reveal are over. The news cycle has passed and those who were extremely motivated to place a reservation already have. Until they start doing traditional advertising, it is now pretty much word of mouth telling the Tesla story.
Fear of missing out is also a strong emotion, so could provide some push given that at this point making a deposit won't guarantee even 2018 delivery.
Guess how much impact of the social network from reservation holders? 300K could be achieved next week. 500K is possible by Q1 ER, which is already a terrific number!
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Remember... there's still another reveal... how did Elon put it? 'Super next level'...
My money is on 500-750k...
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I'm betting the next level is either autopilot related or model Y
either way I think that if the Fremont facility maxes out at 500k per year they'll have to start either the Euro or China manufacturing plant if they hit 1M reservations. It's going to be fun to watch.
Sorry, but already with reservation of over 200K I'm not going to place a reservation on a model 3. Why should Tesla have my depositum in 2-3 years - or longer. How many competitors have in the meantime come up with their version of an EV. Sorry but building 200.000 Model 3 will take Tesla a LONG time. In Q4 they only delivered 17.478 cars
Lots of different reactions are possible for a higher reservation number. A couple things though:
- A higher reservation number is good for Tesla, to argue otherwise is laughable.
- We only know minimal details about Model III ramp. 200,000 may be 1-3 years of production.
- There are no other competitive EVs or ICE cars currently being designed. Bolt(not similar performance or looks) in 2016/17, and.....something else? If it worries you about how long it will take Tesla to produce it, you should worry more about how long it will take others to conceive of it.
- This may be the shortest the line is for decades. 135k reserved, sight unseen. Another 100k in the next 24 hours. How many more before production, and once out in public, how many more then. Many thought the Model S would be lucky to sell 15-20k/yr and were off by an order of magnitude. It looks to be an even higher growth curve for the Model III.
On the contrary. I believe we should! Why? You wouldn't "burn" cash on idling production lines.
A higher "confirmed" demand allows opening up additional production lines, which in turn allow for earlier deliveries.
Once development is finished, parallel production enables meeting demand.
Jim MacInnes
Member
Hope you are right. The second announcement will surely give pre-sales another big kick. However, the current $10 Billion in backlog is already a great indicator of proof of concept and should help to grease the next round of financing.
Ktowntslafan
Member
The high number of M3 reservations may or may not be the best thing for Tesla, in that many of these reservations are likely cannibalizing from potential future Model S sales. Some people posting on this forum have actually stated that they intend to trade in their MS for an M3. Fine to have another sale, but with $70k less revenue...
And some people who didn't know about Tesla may now buy a Model S while waiting for thei Model 3, and some may buy a Model S or Model X to move up in line, and some may get lost in the woods and eaten by bears.
It gets tiring to hear the same, mostly negative comments about M3 reservations and production and the impact on Model S and X. We don't know. It could be additive or dilutive - I'm fairly confident Elon and others with big brains have considered your point and chose to proceed regardless. I'll bet on their analysis and ability to adapt.
I don't know how growing and massive reservations for the next Tesla are a negative - and you won't be able to convince me that success at this time and at this level will destroy the company. This is the beginning of winning.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
They make that money back on the CPO program, they get that S back and refurbish it, enable any features the orginal owner didn't pay for (software switch no physical cost, high profit) and resell it with an extended warranty and the knowledge its in very good shape.
If you buy a Model S and trade it in you also paid heavily for that honor in depreciation. Tesla would be very very happy to sell you a new car every 2 years.
They lock in tens of thousands of dollars of profit off each initial sale and a few thousand dollars for the CPO sale (more if they enable AP that someone didn't enable). Tesla wins no matter which car you buy new.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Remember that while M3 is cannibalizing MS sales (and I do agree that this is happening), M3 will also be pulling people from lower price points up into the M3 range. In exactly the same way that MS has been pulling people from the M3 range up into the MS range. Are there more "lost" MS sales or are there more "lost" ICE sales from the lower price range?
I know which i believe to be the case.
I also believe @Bgarret that there will be some degree of M3 owners/buyers deciding on a used or new MS. This is, in fact, the dynamic the auto industry is accustomed to and built around. Sell a very large number of cars in this 3-series range, to find a small number of buyers in the 7-series range. The EV market is "warped" today in that we don't yet have a range of full function vehicles that happen to be EVs. M3 will help by expanding the list, but we still won't have options in all of the different price ranges and segments, so the market will continue to be warped to some degree.
When is the Q1 earnings call? Oh geez, it's in *May*?
Yeah, it might be up to a million. I'm expecting more like 600,000, based on the theory that reservations will settle down to 10,000 per day -- but I sure wouldn't bet money either way.
Yeah, it might be up to a million. I'm expecting more like 600,000, based on the theory that reservations will settle down to 10,000 per day -- but I sure wouldn't bet money either way.
ibdb
Any excuse for a road trip
I can't see that happening. The lead time to delivery is getting to be much too long for the reservation numbers to continue to grow at this pace.
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