1Q 2018 Shareholder Update Highlights

[TheRealM3]

Some interesting details from my read:

• 2,270/week Model 3 production before April pause.
• 9,766 produced, 8,180 Model 3 delivered in Q1. (Total of 29,997 deliveries for S3X)
• Model 3 is already on the cusp of becoming the best-selling mid-sized premium sedan in the US (compares to BMW 3 series, Audi A4, M-B C Class and Lexus IS).
  
• The battery module line was the main culprit of production bottleneck. New automated module line is still being developed in Germany.
• Target of 5,000 per week production in about two months (but not stated confidently).
• After achieving 5K/wk production, will offer new options such as AWD (dual motor) and the base model (no mention of white seats)
• Model 3 general assembly line consists of about 70% less steps than conventional assembly lines.
• Model 3 is the highest quality vehicle we have ever produced.
• The battery is damn good, better than anything else out there.
• Net reservations continued to exceed 450,000 worldwide.

 

[drawfour]

After achieving 5K/wk production, will offer new options such as AWD, and the base model (no mention of white seats, dual motor, etc.)

Dual motor is AWD.

 

[mongo]

The battery module line was the main culprit of production bottleneck. New automated module line is still being developed in Germany.

Line is not installed yet, but it is no longer being worked on in Germany.

Consequently, we now expect to reach a module production rate of 5,000 car sets per week even
before we install the new automated line designed and built by Tesla in Germany. Still, once installed, this new automated module line should significantly lower manufacturing costs. Our automation team in Germany is currently focusing on further capacity expansion where needed.

 

[Moderatefan]

New automated module line is still being developed in Germany.

This is BS, last time he said it'd be here in March and ramp up in April

 

[TT97]

Line is not installed yet, but it is no longer being worked on in Germany.

I thought the line was supposed to be installed in February or March?

 

[RichardL]

Obviously depends on the exact wording, but I read that as saying they didn't just send it over and take the rest of the month off - they are continuing development work on V1.1+. That does not preclude Version 1 being installed

 

[TheRealM3]

Line is not installed yet, but it is no longer being worked on in Germany.

This sounds to me like typical Elon talk and I read it like it is still being developed (for further capacity expansion) and it is not yet here and ready to be installed.

 

[Moderatefan]

Last 24 hours - over 3K sustained and 5K extrapolared rate. That's good news.

I believe Elon said that battery production now takes 17 minutes compared to 7hrs 3 weeks ago.
Fun fact: they are working for the last 3 years on removing cobalt from it and believe they can get it down to nothing...

CAPEX on Y is currently quite low. It will come in mostly when the hardware is bought. The Y will be revolutionary... What does that say about 3?

Wow. One investor asked what percentage of invitations convert to configurations, Elon said this is boring, let's go to youtube... really?

Youtuber's question: when is Tesla Network coming?
We are well positioned... bla-bla...regulatory approval needed...technically will be ready by the end of 2019.

Y will likely come out early 2020, but not from Fremont, we dont have space here for Y.

Will you be imroving Supercharger technology to match 350kwh ABB? You're going to frag the battery if you do that...maybe 200-250kwh.

Will you be sharing supercharging infrastructure with other brands? We're willing, but they don't want it.

We'll be adding focus on Powerwall orders backlog 2nd half of the year... too busy with 3.

Got about 3K Semi orders, but we don't actively advertise, these are opportunistic.

 

[mongo]

I thought the line was supposed to be installed in February or March?

Install start was to be March (But I can't find free transcript to quote).

From update filing:

Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is not dependent on the additional equipment that is currently located in Germany, as that equipment is expected to start ramping production during Q2 2018. With respect to battery module production, Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is dependent only on the equipment that is already present at Gigafactory 1, as well as the incremental capacity that is currently being added through the semi-automated lines that were also discussed during the conference call.

 

[dailo]

On the webcast, Elon mentioned that to speed up battery pack production they removed some lining on top of the pack because it was hard to automate. They found there was no difference with the lining on or off, interesting he always shares so much detail.

 

[SoCalGuy]

Some interesting details from my read:

• Model 3 general assembly line consists of about 70% less steps than conventional assembly lines.

Like quality control checks?

 

[ebmcs03]

So what does this mean for 200k cars sold?

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Huh, their deposits are up to $985 million (from $854 million).

 

[Moderatefan]

Continuation...

2nd Tesla factory will be in China and will be both battery and car production in the same facility. The location will be announced in the 2nd half of the year.

I think he said people use AP for about 50% of driven miles, but usage dips after negative coverage from press after accidents. The usage pattern is increasing.

Ha-ha. He was asked to provide updates on milestones like 3K, 4K, 5K. He said people figure it out anyway based on vin registration and tracking other stats, we can only provide 1-2 week lead time, if you are too worried about short term don't buy our stock.

What lessons learnt from 3 you will apply to Y?
Lets talk about it when we start production of Y. It will be dramatically better.

No info on 200K.

Oh, yeah. He also said Tesla truck will be great (not semi)...no other info on the truck.

 

[tracksyde]

Wow. One investor asked what percentage of invitations convert to configurations, Elon said this is boring, let's go to youtube... really?

I heard that part of the call.. I thought it was funny. But how would he answer that question? If they invited 50,000 people (making up numbers here) and sold 20,000 cars (every car they've made so far). Answering the question would be to say "40% of the people invited have configured".

But if we also know that reservations are in excess of 450,000 outstanding (in the letter) and as omgwtfbbq mentioned, deposits are increasing, then it would also be safe to say that people who are invited to configure but have not yet configured are waiting for a different mix of options.

Maybe a better question would have been "of the people who have been invited to configure, what percentage are deferring" or "what percentage are canceling".. something along those lines.

 

[Moderatefan]

Maybe a better question would have been "of the people who have been invited to configure, what percentage are deferring" or "what percentage are canceling".. something along those lines.

I guess he could ask for clarification or suggested that people who didn't configure will configure later, but it was a bit shocking to hear that institutional investor put down like that. I guess they better sell Tesla stock too. He was almost advertising this. Makes sense on the other hand, companies dont need shorts.

He could also refer that guy to TMC spreadsheet

 

[EVNow]

Like quality control checks?

Hmmm ...

 

[SoCalGuy]

Hmmm ...

View attachment 298380

Lol. That would make me an expert on this topic, no?

 

[Moderatefan]

I think we actually did not hear the latest car production rate. I got confused when heard the word "cars" in

In the last 24 hours at the Gigafactory, we managed to keep a sustained rate of over 3,000 packs per week. We actually reached a peak hour, extrapolated outward would be a rate of over 5,000 cars per week…

But now it seems he was talking about batteries only.
The letter states current rate 2,270 but that is actually prior to shutdown

Prior to a planned shutdown in mid-April to further increase production, we produced more than 2,000 Model 3 vehicles for three straight weeks, and we hit 2,270 in the last of those weeks

I don't see anywhere what's the rate after the shutdown.

 

[McFlurri]

Huh, their deposits are up to $985 million (from $854 million).

Yes, But I'm sure that includes the Tesla Semi and Roadster.