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2-3 Year Wait

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There is probably a huge group of people who are not going to order until they can try one out and also see how the car settles in a bit. Anyone who really wants to jump in now will probably get their car in less than a year. But once it's safe to enter the water, the wait times could potentially be longer than a year, but most likely not IMHO.
 
Online says delivery starts second half of 2016. My friend told me it's actually a 2 - 3 wait. What is it for a 90D?

No idea for those who are reserving now. The last persons invited to configure in USA this Monday (4th Jan) had booked Model X in May 2015. Have to see what happens next Monday as invites go out every Monday 1 pm Local Tesla Time. Tesla has to delivery international reservations as well. Canadian Signature are done confirming their orders. The current wait period for those who had reserved shows up on the link below.

90D Deliveries Begin Early 2016 - Page 6
 
If you order now, you wont get delivery till December and thats only if the model 3 does not start production.
Model 3 is end of 2017 at the earliest, but more likely 2018. It won't affect Model X or S production at all this year.

If you place a new reservation today, you should anticipate delivery by this December but in reality it will likely be much sooner especially if they ramp production to 1,000 units a week by the middle part of the year.
 
Between learning their lessons about over-engineering the X and the competitive pressures of other 200 mile EV's I don't think 2018 is overly optimistic

The Model X was all about innovating new features (most notably the FWD). With the Model 3, I would think it's more about stripping down the Model S as much as possible to make it affordable.

Of course, that by itself could be challenging enough that it will take much longer than initially anticipated. Also, they may need to wait until the components (like batteries from their new factory) become cheaper, the timeline for that may also be beyond their control.
 
The Model X was all about innovating new features (most notably the FWD). With the Model 3, I would think it's more about stripping down the Model S as much as possible to make it affordable.

Of course, that by itself could be challenging enough that it will take much longer than initially anticipated. Also, they may need to wait until the components (like batteries from their new factory) become cheaper, the timeline for that may also be beyond their control.

I'm sure the model 3 will have it's own production line and I doubt the model 3 will be aluminum to bring prices down. by building less mass (as per elon 20% smaller than model s) he can switch to steel and maintain the weight at 4500lb by using steel. also the model 3 will not be built until the giga-factory is completed from what ive read and heard elon say.