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2% Drop in California of Gas Consumption in Jan / Feb 2013

Discussion in 'Model S: Battery & Charging' started by Owner, Jun 30, 2013.

  1. Owner

    Owner Active Member

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    Is this just a coincidence that the Model S was at a real production level at the same time that gas consumption dropped in California by 2% in January and February this year? Please discuss.

    My source of this statistic is from this article.
    I condensed the interesting statistics on my blog.

    I'm not trying to start a thread about gas taxes supporting the roads. More interested in analyzing the net effect of Model S production.
     
  2. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    It is a coincidence.
    There are 34 million vehicles in California and around 10000 Tesla Model S. That is 0.03%
     
  3. FreeOfPge

    FreeOfPge Member

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    With increased Leaf and Volt sales, new Prius models including the plug in version, add to that better mpg ratings across the board and it makes sense. We seem to finally be on the right path for sure.
     
  4. Owner

    Owner Active Member

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    Perhaps Model S purchases replaced a lot of gas guzzlers to have enough effect?
     
  5. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    If the average mpg in CA is 30 (not saying it is) and every Tesla replaced a 15 mpg car, and let's say the average Tesla owner drives double the distance of the average CA owner, then that the maximum possible Tesla contribution about 1%. In reality the maximum will be less because only the Teslas in service January and February would be included.
     
  6. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Active Member

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    I think that an interesting stat. You need to factor in all EV sales, which would boost the number quite a bit. Then see if gas consumption fell across other states too.
     
  7. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    0.03% x 2 x 2 = 0.12%

    Still negligible.
     
  8. gaswalla

    gaswalla P4201/85/airsusp/pano/19i

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    I think it's because of the increasing popularity of the Prius... they sold 61,000 Prius cars in 2012.. that volume at 50 MPG replacing 61K cars previously giving 25mpg would make quite a difference.
     
  9. allanb4me

    allanb4me Member

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    any kind of drop in gas consumption is good.
     
  10. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    You're right, I missed a zero. :-(
     
  11. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    I don't think that there are 10,000 Tesla Model S's in California yet, as the total number of delivered Tesla Model S's is about 13,000.

    But maybe I am wrong.

    Would it be possible to find out how many Tesla Model S's have been registered in California so far?
     
  12. PhilBa

    PhilBa Active Member

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    That article is pretty vague. Is the drop from the previous 2 months or from the first 2 months of 2012. If from the previous 2 months then it's definitely meaningless (all sorts of activities drop in the first two months of the year). If it's from the first two months of 2012, it is only probably meaningless.
     
  13. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    Noise in the data. Try correlating those numbers against, for example, average gasoline prices, against the number of weekend vs weekdays in those years' first two months, against average age of automobile fleet, even against differing weather patterns....there are any number of factors that will contribute more than the number of Teslas.

    Yet.
     
  14. CalDreamin

    CalDreamin Member

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  15. drees

    drees Active Member

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    Interesting - didn't realize the CA gas tax was going up 3.5c / gallon. Considering that I only buy about 200 gallons of gas a year (for the Prius) it's only going to cost about $7. Not quite enough to justify a Model S yet, unfortunately!

    Still good to see that gas consumption is going down. I didn't see diesel mentioned at all - TDIs are fairly popular in California as well...

    In reality, the federal gas tax also needs to go up to cover budget shortfalls there - it's been stuck at 18.4c/gallon since 1993. It needs to be increased and indexed to inflation at least...
     

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