2 million mile Semi? Disruption described by "Tesla Fan Insight"

[Brando]

I can see electrified transport disrupt the repair/parts business. Creates refurbished interiors and battery upgrade businesses - but after 10 years? or even 20 or 30?? (my 900 Saab 27 years old). Seems too far into the future to predict.
How about "cabs"? Take a look back 1922-1982 Checker Motors Corporation - Wikipedia
Google, Apple, Uber, Lyft, etc. might build them (self driving of course)?

I think you'll enjoy his comments
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Published on Dec 18, 2017

Tesla semi first 2 million mile truck hard match cummins, daimler ice trucks. Tesla's guarantee of one million miles no service costs means truck goes 2 million miles total. With cummins/daimler ice trucks going only 500,000 miles before replacement Tesla semi is a huge nightmare for all ice producers. Maybe Nikola was right impossible? Please note we are supporters of Tesla's efforts but not afraid to point out negatives. If you just hate Tesla in general, will not tolerate bashing with no logic whatsoever.

PS- Maybe Tesla is selling Semi too cheap?
- Early IBM lease only business model? need a lot of capital, right?
- They lease jet airliners, I guess they lease Diesel Semi Trucks? Will leasing companies jump in?
Interesting times.

 

[Brando]

Truck Leasing 101: Complete Guide to Semi Truck Leasing
(no comment from me, read for yourself)

Commercial Truck Leasing 101 - Complete Guide to Semi Truck Leasing

 

[Brando]

Why DAIMLER and GM even Cummings so slow into SEMI market?
Here are two interesting perspectives - will Tesla be allowed to dominate electric SEMIs?

Daimler Benz to build 500 SEMIs in 2 years vs Tesla 10,000. Daimler can produce a thousand ice trucks in a day but the losses that come with current iterating of their electric trucks make current products only "loss leaders" that cannot be sold at scale without damaging the company.

Tesla vs GM vs Mercedes-Benz - some perspectives of why Tesla so far ahead.

GM electric concepts since 60s and EV1 (1996-2002?) gets crushed. Standard Oil schemed with GM and Firestone to eliminate electric Trolleys to increase sales of buses & autos.
General Motors streetcar conspiracy - Wikipedia

2017 GM half hearted effort with the Bolt reflects an effort to say doing something, but losing reported $10,000 per Bolt and only supplying <24,000 Bolts makes it a compliance car for CARB. GM effort in electric is poorly thought out and executed. With Mercedes and Ford spending billions it maybe hard on GM if their effort level does not change. GM sold Opel to PSA Europe and got ~$2 billion in cash returned to shareholders vs. investing it in electric cars or battery plants.

 

[Brando]

@TEG - sorry I lost the thread - anyway TEG wanted Tesla to do smaller trucks/vans/ambulances

Seems all these type of vehicles are specialty built by what we used to call "coach builders" (same for RVs).
Could these coach builders could use some help. wrightspeed ??

Seems like a business opportunity.
Perhaps Bosch, Delphi will supply the parts?
Do these vehicles have to have any certifications? can they only be built on "certified gliders" ??

try internet search
electric vehicle parts suppliers

Workhorse is one such coach builder Workhorse | Electric Trucks, Delivery Drones, Telematics

Where is Lutz Chevy hybrid truck? VIA Motors
Big surprise - Lutz needs bail-out from Chinese.
Blog

Daimler was supposed to start selling their class 7 truck in US and Japan (Europe too??) end of 2017 - I haven't read anything.
Also, Daimler has announced the eSprinter Van in early 2018.
Will be interesting to compare eSprinter Van sales to Tesla SEMI - both numbers and $ amounts.

Most still seem clueless to me.
Here is an example $52,000 80 mile range - hybrid +300 mile extender
Competes with F-150 reserve now and delivery in 2019 details see below

 

[Brando]

Daimler Benz - this story is hard to believe - I expected better from German Corporate Management.
BUT VW Dieselgate suggests that perhaps German vehicles makers not that much better than US GM/Ford.

 

[Electroman]

Daimler Benz - this story is hard to believe - I expected better from German Corporate Management.
BUT VW Dieselgate suggests that perhaps German vehicles makers not that much better than US GM/Ford.

Sorry.. didn't learn much listening to that 13 minutes of rambling.

And he was referring to Tesla's "superconducting" battery. Wondering what the heck that is? I guess he wanted to say "magical" battery but substituted that with something that might sound more real. But probably didn't realize "superconducting" battery is equally absurd.

 

[Brando]

Sorry.. didn't learn much listening to that 13 minutes of rambling.

And he was referring to Tesla's "superconducting" battery. Wondering what the heck that is? I guess he wanted to say "magical" battery but substituted that with something that might sound more real. But probably didn't realize "superconducting" battery is equally absurd.

I warned you that Daimler Benz story was hard to believe. I don't hear any false hoods. But if these characterization of Daimler thinking are half right, seems small wonder Benz is so slow to electrify. right?

I don't understand Benz - But I'd suspect that now that Model S in Germany out sells the Class S and that Class S sales are down about 15% in 2017 - so what next? import duty on Model S? great sales on Class S? We finally get a great electrified Mercedes?

 

[Brando]

I warned you that Daimler Benz story was hard to believe. I don't hear any false hoods. But if these characterization of Daimler thinking are half right, seems small wonder Benz is so slow to electrify. right?

I don't understand Benz - But I'd suspect that now that Model S in Germany out sells the Class S and that Class S sales are down about 15% in 2017 - so what next? import duty on Model S? great sales on Class S? We finally get a great electrified Mercedes?

CORRECTION: Model S out sells Class S everywhere EXCEPT in China and Germany.
Not sure, but 2017 production perhaps Class S near 70,000 and model S near 50,000 - perhaps someone can provide better numbers for 2017.

 

[Brando]

Daimler's problems ?
They still don't seem to get it. Batteries? how to scale down ICE/diesel while electrifiing.
They think Tesla can't make a class 8 truck - no way, all must be a lie.

 

[Brando]

UNDERSTANDING US AUTO COMPANIES - 2013 but I think it is still mostly accurate. you?

Bob Lutz's has authored a new book, "Icons and Idiots." We'll be picking his brain about the state of the automotive industry. Joining John McElroy, Peter De Lorenzo and Csaba Csere - Car and Driver

VIA Motors (Bob's Chevy Hybrid truck/vans) delayed 1.5 years, and Bob still can't imagine why an auto company would make their own batteries - near the end of above interview. I still can't believe this is how upper management in US corporations actually work/think.

 

[Kandiru]

The SuperWoman lot lizard is inspiring.

 

[Brando]

It will be interesting to follow Tesla motor manufacturing. Could be that Model 3/Y and SEMI all use the same motor. Also Electronics [converts/inverters/controllers] can be used in cars, SEMI, storage products and solar panels. interesting times.

 

[Brando]

HOW MANY SEMI TRUCKS ?

It is common to build 10 to 30 EP = Engineering Prototypes in vehicle development. Next are VP = Validation Prototypes. EP are for engineering and final design details. VP are to validate suppliers and validate testing such as reliability, crash etc.. In the US, these VP can be sold IF they pass the federal required tests. Tesla may convert EP into VP to save time/money.

Note new ground work next to the GigaFactory - I would suspect that is where the SEMI will be assembled. Batteries, battery packs and I believe the motors are all built at GigaFactory. Model 3 seems to share batteries, motor and perhaps battery pack with the SEMI [this might allow SEMI support at Tesla existing Service Centers]. Also note Tesla starting training - 3 month class. https://electrek.co/2018/03/26/tesla-start-automotive-training-program/

I don't think we have 2 different trucks. The roof air dam is different and most useful only at freeway speeds. So city trucks may not use it.

Central California "...positions for Lathrop advertised on the Tesla website are for CNC (computer numerical control) technicians and operators — a computer-assisted process for machining." And, I believe, Aluminium Casting of parts.

Batteries now have these markets to supply; Tesla cars, PowerWall [storage residential and industrial] and soon SEMI. And batteries are key for all these markets. Many suspect GM/LG Chem could only supply about 25,000 batteries for BOLTs, and of course that is about all GM needed for ZEV credits to sell trucks/SUVs in ZEV/CARB states. Tesla SEMI will allow flexibility to use/sell/supply batteries. Model Y could be built on the same Model 3 line. Depends on the number of vehicles they need to make each year. Next GigaFactory might be combination battery/vehicle - I'm sure Tesla trying to figure out if that is a viable idea. Elon mentioned they have 3 or 4 sites for more GigaFactories - interesting to see what develops. So far none of the battery people seem committed to the volumes that Tesla sees. Nor do any of the vehicle makes - VW nor Merc nor GM perhaps BYD does? Perhaps China will build a very large battery plant?