2 years: Musk's new timeline for door-to-door full autonomy

[calisnow]

@whitex - I don't feel ripped off one bit and I make my living hunting for deep value investments. I feel I've gotten "deep value" with my AP1 and my AP2 Teslas.

I dunno, maybe I drank the koolaid but AP1 is awesome and I find AP2 to be close in performance and improving faster than AP1 did.

If AP2 gets to just be a safer highway autopilot that can handle more corner cases than AP1 I'll feel I got my $8K worth. Others may be upset at Tesla but I'm not.

Nothing on the market can touch it. When Cadillac releases its autopilot this fall, Tesla will be several software builds ahead of where they are now and we can compare again who is market leader.

 

[whitex]

@whitex - I don't feel ripped off one bit and I make my living hunting for deep value investments. I feel I've gotten "deep value" with my AP1 and my AP2 Teslas.

I dunno, maybe I drank the koolaid but AP1 is awesome and I find AP2 to be close in performance and improving faster than AP1 did.

If AP2 gets to just be a safer highway autopilot thay can handle more corner cases than AP1 I'll feel I got my $8K worth. Others may be upset at Tesla but I'm not.

Personally I am not feeling ripped off about AP2 either, but that's because after 691hp and other Tesla experiences I chose to read and interpret all the fine print as a skeptic, and my interpretation was that Tesla is committing to nothing at all, so decided that if I wanted to gable with $8,000 like this, it would be better to just buy TSLA stock - if they really pull off FSD in 2017 the stock return would pay for the post-delivery FSD upgrade and then some. So no, I didn't buy EAP or FSD. My AP2 expectations that I did pay for are AEB, auto-wipers, actually working blind spot detection (AP1 is horrible at it). Setting reasonable expectations gives me a better chance to not be disappointed - let's see how many months it will take to get these 3 features (first AEB coming with next update I understand, the other 2 not even on the radar yet).

That said, I fully understand and sympathize with people who did not choose to read the fine print in the most negative way. If this was my first Tesla, I might have chosen to believe the hype (like I did when they told me my car will have 691hp once they "passing speeds" over the air update comes) and been just as disappointed.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

That said, I fully understand and sympathize with people who did not choose to read the fine print in the most negative way. If this was my first Tesla, I might have chosen to believe the hype (like I did when they told me my car will have 691hp once they "passing speeds" over the air update comes) and been just as disappointed.

Indeed.

The thing is, some people expect/demand that Tesla buyers read Tesla like a liar. And if you don't read Tesla with the assumption that Tesla is lying, it is your fault for not doing your research and for coming in with unrealistic expectations.

Few seem to be stopping for a minute to think about what that expectation on customers actually tells us about Tesla.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Good point @Bladerskb. Elon Musk in January 2016:

In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY

OK, Level 5 in a Tesla, in January 2018. Through your smartphone.

AP2 at the moment is Level 1, not even Level 2 (hands off). That's one tight ramp-up!

 

[DocZ]

Again, if you're holding Elon to a strict timeline, you will be disappointed. Just relax. This is much harder than anything any of you have had to do, they'll release it when it's ready

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Again, if you're holding Elon to a strict timeline, you will be disappointed. Just relax. This is much harder than anything any of you have had to do, they'll release it when it's ready

Not that you know what anyone on this forum actually does, but holding people and companies to some moral standards is not really tied to achievement - just general morals.

Eon might do better by reigning in the hyperbole a bit, especially when taking people's money. Calling it out seems fair.

 

[Barry]

Again, if you're holding Elon to a strict timeline, you will be disappointed.

For a smart guy, I'm surprised he hasn't yet learned to not talk target dates.

 

[DocZ]

Not that you know what anyone on this forum actually does, but holding people and companies to some moral standards is not really tied to achievement - just general morals.

Eon might do better by reigning in the hyperbole a bit, especially when taking people's money. Calling it out seems fair.

I would take a strong educated guess that no one here is building incredibly complex software that trains cars to drive themselves, all while challenging an established auto industry that constantly reminds us Tesla will fail.

My point is this is not a trivial task by any means. I find it utterly ridiculous that people have become so spoiled and entitled. "Omg Elon isn't delivering our autonomous features on time!!!" is the general sentiment around here and it makes everyone look like douchebags. Yes he's ambitious and aggressive with his timelines, he obviously dreams big. But hiccups happen, just like with anything in life.

 

[whitex]

I would take a strong educated guess that no one here is building incredibly complex software that trains cars to drive themselves, all while challenging an established auto industry that constantly reminds us Tesla will fail.

My point is this is not a trivial task by any means. I find it utterly ridiculous that people have become so spoiled and entitled. "Omg Elon isn't delivering our autonomous features on time!!!" is the general sentiment around here and it makes everyone look like douchebags. Yes he's ambitious and aggressive with his timelines, he obviously dreams big. But hiccups happen, just like with anything in life.

I don't think anyone has a problem understanding it's a challenging problem or that it takes time. The problem is taking money for something and then saying "uhm... it's harder than we thought, but we're working on it so we're keeping your money". If Elon just made the claims and continued raising money by selling stock rather than by selling vaporware features, people would probably be cheering him on.

 

[f-stop]

FYI the video of the full TED interview with Elon Musk has now been posted
The future we're building -- and boring

 

[Reciprocity]

To be fair, Elon never said door to door in 2 years. What he said, after watching the video 2x, is that you will feel safe going to sleep in the car and waking up at your destination in 2 years. He has always stated that his initial goal is 10x better then a human. Humans still wreck cars and kill people. The human that is 10x better driver then me still has an accident in their lifetime. So would you feel good going to sleep and waking at your destination if you knew there was a 10x better chance of you not getting in an accident or would you want to know the likelihood would be more like 1 in a thousand lifetimes, which is exactly what he said as it relates to 2 years.

 

[Skotty]

I still think the autonomous driving timeline Musk speaks about is the one thing he is bat-you-know-what crazy on. Not gonna happen.

It was unclear from the discussion whether or not the coast to coast thing was just a demo or a production feature.

I can see highway only fully autonomous in maybe 5 to 10 years, and that's really where most of the value is. But include off highway driving, and I think we are still talking decades away.

I've held this viewpoint for a long time. I think the goal and reality of AP2 advancement at least so far corroborates my viewpoint on this.

That said, I do appreciate and encourage Tesla's efforts to advance autonomous driving, and I think they will be leaders in this area for a long time to come.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I would take a strong educated guess that no one here is building incredibly complex software that trains cars to drive themselves, all while challenging an established auto industry that constantly reminds us Tesla will fail.

Maybe, maybe not. Then again people with abilities to buy Tesla cars may be innovators in their respective fields, we don't know any of that. Anyway, that is beside the point. There is some nice fallacy on some fallacy list somewhere describing that argument anyway. Who we are is quite beside the point when discussing Tesla.

My point is this is not a trivial task by any means. I find it utterly ridiculous that people have become so spoiled and entitled. "Omg Elon isn't delivering our autonomous features on time!!!" is the general sentiment around here and it makes everyone look like douchebags. Yes he's ambitious and aggressive with his timelines, he obviously dreams big. But hiccups happen, just like with anything in life.

The thing is: There is a reason why someone recently made the joke we should give Elon the nickname Eon. And it has got nothing to do with the AP2 timeline, though the AP2 timeline is one more bullet point on a long list.

When you run a public company and you take people's money for products before delivering features, a certain responsibility for your words comes with that. It is a legal responsibility, but most importantly it is a moral responsibility - and that responsibility also has PR ramifications. It is not entitlement to hold a money-taking, stock-trading company to its word - and it should IMO surprise, let alone abhor or displease, absolutely nobody that people do.

We make jokes about Elon time on TMC all the time, because this is not simply a case of "AP2 was harder than expected". It is in both Elon's and Tesla's culture. There are many, many examples of overpromise and underdeliver. And not just time-wise, but also spec-wise where products are falling short of announcements/marketing. And IMO saying it would be wise for them to reconsider that part of their culture seems fair.

As I've been saying: Tesla has good enough products for not needing hyperbole to embellish them. Just sell what you have and do, that is plenty enough. People will also love and respect you more for it, with all the benefits (and decreased risks) that entails.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

To be fair, Elon never said door to door in 2 years. What he said, after watching the video 2x, is that you will feel safe going to sleep in the car and waking up at your destination in 2 years. He has always stated that his initial goal is 10x better then a human. Humans still wreck cars and kill people. The human that is 10x better driver then me still has an accident in their lifetime. So would you feel good going to sleep and waking at your destination if you knew there was a 10x better chance of you not getting in an accident or would you want to know the likelihood would be more like 1 in a thousand lifetimes, which is exactly what he said as it relates to 2 years.

Good info on the video, but to be really fair, Elon said this in January 2016:

"In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY"

Elon Musk on Twitter

Elon says a lot of things.

 

[DocZ]

Maybe, maybe not. Then again people with abilities to buy Tesla cars may be innovators in their respective fields, we don't know any of that. Anyway, that is beside the point. There is some nice fallacy on some fallacy list somewhere describing that argument anyway. Who we are is quite beside the point when discussing Tesla.



The thing is: There is a reason why someone recently made the joke we should give Elon the nickname Eon. And it has got nothing to do with the AP2 timeline, though the AP2 timeline is one more bullet point on a long list.

When you run a public company and you take people's money for products before delivering features, a certain responsibility for your words comes with that. It is a legal responsibility, but most importantly it is a moral responsibility - and that responsibility also has PR ramifications. It is not entitlement to hold a money-taking, stock-trading company to its word - and it should IMO surprise, let alone abhor or displease, absolutely nobody that people do.

We make jokes about Elon time on TMC all the time, because this is not simply a case of "AP2 was harder than expected". It is in both Elon's and Tesla's culture. There are many, many examples of overpromise and underdeliver. And not just time-wise, but also spec-wise where products are falling short of announcements/marketing. And IMO saying it would be wise for them to reconsider that part of their culture seems fair.

As I've been saying: Tesla has good enough products for not needing hyperbole to embellish them. Just sell what you have and do, that is plenty enough. People will also love and respect you more for it, with all the benefits (and decreased risks) that entails.

I certainly understand your point and there are even elements I agree with. However, Tesla is not just any company. My thoughts about people being entitled and whiny about updates not happening fast enough stem from the fundamental understanding of the adversities this company has faced and the overwhelming odds they've overcome to not only be successful today but to rock the auto industry to its core. This isn't easy by any means, and as we all know, Tesla financials are still being called into question. They're always looking for ways to increase revenue. For everything he's done thus far, for how badly he's rocked the auto industry...he will always get a free pass from me. THIS is the point that I think is lost in all the bitching. If Elon advertises that the hardware suite in cars exist today and we're working on the software and we'll get it to you in as timely and as safely of a manner as we possibly can....I am happy to support him. No other car company is selling me a product where I will have autonomous features given to me via updates for my current hardware.

The thing I find most hilarious is....ok you don't like the sales tactics, you have a couple options. 1) don't pay for the autopilot option (which was clearly marketed as not fully baked and will have OTA updates)
2) buy a comparable ICE car and get the exact features you paid for, right then and there. Good luck when Tesla software finally gets released and your car becomes obsolete.

Anyway, just my thoughts. Great discussion.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

@DocZ you are very open and honest about your views and I respect that. I have no need to argue your convictions.

A couple of clarifications on my own points of view:

For everything he's [Elon] done thus far, for how badly he's rocked the auto industry...he will always get a free pass from me.

I guess this is one fundamental difference between us. I can and do appreciate how he has rocked the industry and will continue to believe it is exactly because of Tesla that BEVs are finally making headway internationally. It is not unlike I appreciate how Steve Jobs helped transform both the GUI and later the music and smartphone industries with his charisma and vision. It is just not in my personal nature to give anyone (be it Musk or Jobs) a free pass based on those achievements.

I will discuss the good as good and the bad as bad, and for me that is the objective way of looking at things. I have no problem with fandom, I'm gushing about things at times like a fanboy too, but I do not consider it healthy to give anyone free passes. You know what they say about absolute power. Getting free passes on everything is akin to absolute power.

No other car company is selling me a product where I will have autonomous features given to me via updates for my current hardware.

The thing I find most hilarious is....ok you don't like the sales tactics, you have a couple options. 1) don't pay for the autopilot option (which was clearly marketed as not fully baked and will have OTA updates)
2) buy a comparable ICE car and get the exact features you paid for, right then and there. Good luck when Tesla software finally gets released and your car becomes obsolete.

Indeed. No other car company at this time is selling a compelling large-battery BEV in the premium segment, nor offering an upgradeable autonomous driving system that has the potential to self-drive at some stage. You will get no argument from me there and that is one reason I am driving a new Model X with EAP and FSD.

Also, you get no argument from me that Tesla gets away with many things simply because the market lacks options, other than waiting.

I guess the point where our point of view really diverge is what that unique offering and unique position Tesla has really means. For you, it is - by your own description anyway - free pass on everything for Elon and, I guess by extension, Tesla, because that offering is so unique. There is nothing else, this is so special and important, that nothing else that might be going on around it matters. I get that and certainly you are not alone on TMC.

I do not wish to change your mind, but I would still suggest, overall, that it may not be a sustainable or the wisest possible approach for Tesla to take for a wider audience, though. If they wear their loyalty thin by stretching what their audience has to accept from them, that audience will be more (not less) likely to move elsewhere once those other options finally emerge. Fool me once, shame on me, kind of stuff. It may also result in more people simply waiting.

There was a time when I wouldn't have ever thought my next car purchase would not be a Tesla. Now I am considering it. Not because the Audis and Jaguars of this world are so great, but because for me Tesla has come down many pegs from the stuff of dreams to mere mortals - and soon there will be many mere mortals to choose from in this world.

Loyalty begets loyalty, to quote Elon Musk. One free pass too many does not.

I worry about the day that Elon cried wolf one time too many and nobody believed him. We can already see that happening in some conversations.

 

[Matias]

My point is this is not a trivial task by any means. I find it utterly ridiculous that people have become so spoiled and entitled. "Omg Elon isn't delivering our autonomous features on time!!!" is the general sentiment around here and it makes everyone look like douchebags. Yes he's ambitious and aggressive with his timelines, he obviously dreams big. But hiccups happen, just like with anything in life.

It seems that you forgot, that AP2 owners have paid big bucks for their product. They are not demanding something Pro bono. They just want something they paid for.

 

[DocZ]

@DocZ you are very open and honest about your views and I respect that. I have no need to argue your convictions.

A couple of clarifications on my own points of view:



I guess this is one fundamental difference between us. I can and do appreciate how he has rocked the industry and will continue to believe it is exactly because of Tesla that BEVs are finally making headway internationally. It is not unlike I appreciate how Steve Jobs helped transform both the GUI and later the music and smartphone industries with his charisma and vision. It is just not in my personal nature to give anyone (be it Musk or Jobs) a free pass based on those achievements.

I will discuss the good as good and the bad as bad, and for me that is the objective way of looking at things. I have no problem with fandom, I'm gushing about things at times like a fanboy too, but I do not consider it healthy to give anyone free passes. You know what they say about absolute power. Getting free passes on everything is akin to absolute power.



Indeed. No other car company at this time is selling a compelling large-battery BEV in the premium segment, nor offering an upgradeable autonomous driving system that has the potential to self-drive at some stage. You will get no argument from me there and that is one reason I am driving a new Model X with EAP and FSD.

Also, you get no argument from me that Tesla gets away with many things simply because the market lacks options, other than waiting.

I guess the point where our point of view really diverge is what that unique offering and unique position Tesla has really means. For you, it is - by your own description anyway - free pass on everything for Elon and, I guess by extension, Tesla, because that offering is so unique. There is nothing else, this is so special and important, that nothing else that might be going on around it matters. I get that and certainly you are not alone on TMC.

I do not wish to change your mind, but I would still suggest, overall, that it may not be a sustainable or the wisest possible approach for Tesla to take for a wider audience, though. If they wear their loyalty thin by stretching what their audience has to accept from them, that audience will be more (not less) likely to move elsewhere once those other options finally emerge. Fool me once, shame on me, kind of stuff. It may also result in more people simply waiting.

There was a time when I wouldn't have ever thought my next car purchase would not be a Tesla. Now I am considering it. Not because the Audis and Jaguars of this world are so great, but because for me Tesla has come down many pegs from the stuff of dreams to mere mortals - and soon there will be many mere mortals to choose from in this world.

Loyalty begets loyalty, to quote Elon Musk. One free pass too many does not.

I worry about the day that Elon cried wolf one time too many and nobody believed him. We can already see that happening in some conversations.

To further clarify my point, yes I am a huge Tesla fan but the main reason he gets a pass is that he continues to release products that other companies are only talking about as concepts, with some vague time to market. I am not an EV enthusiast by any means. I don't even consider other EV cars on the horizon. Why? Because no one is offering the tech and the range, coupled with a nationwide supercharger network.

While certainly not perfect, his products are simply more compelling than anything else coming out in the near future. The very idea that he dared to defy an entire auto industry and he won, and others are still years away from offering the same experience....again I'm happy to support that. That's just a philosophical view and everyone is entitled to their opinion.

But I would say that the general sentiment of forgetting just how massive this mans accomplishment is runs rampant around here because people are so caught up in the "hey where are my features that Elon promised??" talk. Give the man a break if the software needs more time. Don't forget that everyone was laughing at him just a few years ago and he delivered. He isn't perfect but he'll deliver folks.

 

[DocZ]

It seems that you forgot, that AP2 owners have paid big bucks for their product. They are not demanding something Pro bono. They just want something they paid for.

And it will come. It needs to happen in as safe of a manner as possible. If that takes a little longer, then so be it. I'll always stand by the point that if you wanna bitch about this, then go buy a comparable ICE car with no autopilot. And watch your car become obsolete when the software is finally released for that Model S you chose not to buy because Elon didn't deliver on time.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

He isn't perfect but he'll deliver folks.

I guess one thing that really is starting to bug even the most avid fans is that there is a growing list of things where Elon/Tesla actually haven't delivered in the end. A range of Tesla Performance cars, several generations now, have been left waiting for solutions for their products falling short and seeing maybe, just maybe the next generation product fulfill those specs - often to be disappointed even after a second product purchase. Same thing now with AP1 (it seems to forever fall short of what was advertised originally) and we are singing the same tune with AP2 already.

If it was only about constantly being late, that would be one thing. Though it is certainly also about constantly being late/making unrealistic statements about timelines! But the pattern that is emerging goes beyond that. And IMO there seems to be a growing tendency of no longer taking Elon/Tesla at their word, trusting the word of Elon/Tesla, even (or especially) amongst their best, most knowledgeable fans and customers. And if we can no longer trust Elon/Tesla's word, then what does that tell us about Elon/Tesla and their word.

I get it that is not a cause for concern for you, but it certainly is for me. I wish they'd just stop it. The products are good enough to stand on their own merits and the world would, in the end, love them more for it. I fear that these shenanigans might harm the mission more than help it.