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20% of all drivers will eventually own a Tesla

Discussion in 'Tesla Motors' started by deonb, May 2, 2013.

  1. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    Just came out of a meeting with 15 people. Before it started we were randomly chatting and realized 3 people around the table had a Model S. Wow!

    Now let's get that extrapolated to the population as a whole, shall we. :biggrin:
     
  2. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Lets not. I think the title of this is a bit misleading... Especially when outlets re always trolling TMC for news.
     
  3. Raffy.Roma

    Raffy.Roma Active Member

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    I think that such a percentage could be easily reached when Gen III will be launched provided that at that time the Supercharger network will spread all over the world.
     
  4. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    But don't we want them to believe this?
     
  5. sp4rk

    sp4rk Banned

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    I do ... hey ... pass the kool aid.
     
  6. Kaivball

    Kaivball Member

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    14 million cars are sold in the US every year...

    You do the math...

    :)
     
  7. mattjn

    mattjn Member

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    2.8 million cars sold by Tesla, yeah I don't think they are going to get to that range for at least 10-15 years if that.
     
  8. Raffy.Roma

    Raffy.Roma Active Member

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    The Supercharger network is a revolutionary idea which could give unexpected results in future. Provided that Tesla capability of building cars will increase big sale numbers could be reached expecially when Gen III will be launched. Maybe that the 20% percentage will not be reached immediately at the Gen III launch but after some years it's a possible goal in my opinion.
     
  9. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Not me personally. I want Tesla to succeed, but the same way we don't want the media harping on BS, I don't want them praising BS either. I'd like this company to stand tall on its own two feet. I want the car to succeed because it's a great car, not because of any fuzzy math, political favors or spin (from the company or consumers).

    Not sure Tesla is a 4-5 million per year company. Their 5 year plan doesn't really even have them cracking a quarter of a million, let alone 4. Heck, I'm not even sure that Tesla would be able to handle that. Maybe in 20 years, but not now or the foreseeable future.
     
  10. Raffy.Roma

    Raffy.Roma Active Member

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    Yes 10 - 15 years is what I thought.
     
  11. Kaivball

    Kaivball Member

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    There is not a single car manufacturer in the world that has 20% market share.

    Neither will Tesla. Additional competitors will jump into the EV market. Tesla will not remain the only true game in town.
     
  12. PeterW

    PeterW Member

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    You are correct. As long as Tesla continues to grow and be successful others will follow. They will not have a choice. It will be: Change or Die.

    Some will not survive.
     
  13. Plug Me In

    Plug Me In Member

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    50% of the cars in my driveway are Teslas - is a Tesla.
     
  14. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    If Tesla is at 1 million cars in a decade, I'll be surprised. They'll so just fine with 150,000 or so Gen III which is their goal I believe.
     
  15. Soflason

    Soflason Member

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    Exactly, there are some great metrics out right now regarding Tesla's numbers relative to its luxury (and EV) market segments, no need to refer to fuzzy guestimate-stats that just don't make sense or have any relevance when coupled with industry or marketshare data at our fingertips.

    On the other hand, amazingly I spoke with a small company in Miami today that had six Teslas among it's staff and more on order. The buzz is growing, hearing more stories like this but always prefer hard data to better evaluate...
     
  16. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    Please. If an outlet really reports my gleeful utterance as news, they deserve not to be taken seriously. However, if an outlet wants to do some real research of their own and extrapolate figures as a result of income level, charger/supercharger availability, geographic density, age etc., we would all welcome that.



    I agree. But it's not inconceivable to think that Tesla parts could have a large (20%+) roll to play in all BEV's in the future. At the very least their licensing would. While other competitors are taking a wait-and-see (if that) approach, Tesla is building an impressive portfolio of patents.
     
  17. Raffy.Roma

    Raffy.Roma Active Member

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    The difference between Tesla and its competitors is the Supercharger network that can work only for Tesla cars. Thanks to the Supercharger network the buyer can use its Tesla EV as a normal ICE car. While normal EVs can be used only as city cars and cannot be used for long trips.
    That's why I said, provided that the Supercharger network will spread all over the world, Tesla sale percentage could be huge.
     
  18. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    Which is why I think Tesla is not embracing CHAdeMO. If Tesla makes CHAdeMO popular, they'll lose their competitive edge. (I know, I know, it sucks.)
     
  19. K Hall

    K Hall Member

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    I remember when Apple had 5% of the PC sales in the US and today it is over 30%. Focus on how a growth company is scalable. The growth curve is exponential. It was the late 80's when Toyota built its first international assembly facility in Georgetown Kentucky. How many do they have today? Ok so it might take 30 years but it is possible.
     
  20. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29

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    67% of ours.
     

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