200,000 cars sold by Q1/18?

[ElecFan]

Reading all the comments, most people expect Tesla to reach the 200,000 mark in Q1 of next year. I have dived into the numbers and with the slow deliveries of M3 I think Q2 might be a possibility.

Here's my guestimate:
- InsideEV has estimated up until october 2017 a total 146,781 cars (S/X/3) delivered in the US.

- If 2016 november and december S/X deliveries are repeated this will be 11,725 (S/X)
- plus ~3000 M3's
- the year total should be around 161,000 cars.

- If 2017 Q1 is repeated in 2018 Q1 there will be 10,400 S/X delivered and
- assuming M3 ramping up to 12,000 (Jan 3k, Feb 4k, Mar 5k)
- total Q1/18 will be 22,400.

This would make the running total 183,400.

Roadster deliveries 2010/2011 were 1900 so this would make total deliveries 185,300.

If these calculations are right the 200,000 mark should be reached in Q2.
Or am I missing something?

 

[jelloslug]

Reading all the comments, most people expect Tesla to reach the 200,000 mark in Q1 of next year. I have dived into the numbers and with the slow deliveries of M3 I think Q2 might be a possibility.

Here's my guestimate:
- InsideEV has estimated up until october 2017 a total 146,781 cars (S/X/3) delivered in the US.

- If 2016 november and december S/X deliveries are repeated this will be 11,725 (S/X)
- plus ~3000 M3's
- the year total should be around 161,000 cars.

- If 2017 Q1 is repeated in 2018 Q1 there will be 10,400 S/X delivered and
- assuming M3 ramping up to 12,000 (Jan 3k, Feb 4k, Mar 5k)
- total Q1/18 will be 22,400.

This would make the running total 183,400.

Roadster deliveries 2010/2011 were 1900 so this would make total deliveries 185,300.

If these calculations are right the 200,000 mark should be reached in Q2.
Or am I missing something?

Yes, that is the calculation that most people have been coming up with for a while now.

 

[ElecFan]

Yes, that is the calculation that most people have been coming up with for a while now.

Aha, I read some older estimates coming up with Q1.

So, assuming Tesla will get to the 5k/wk of M3s by the end of March 2018 and 10k end 2018, wouldn't then the most part of US reservations benefit from the tax credit? I mean, the yeartotal would be (~40 wks*7,500 =) 300,000 deliveries, which must be around the total number of reservations for the US.

 

[Litzy]

If their current "estimates" are right, they plan on being at 5K per week by the end of March, not 5K total for all of March. If that happens then your numbers are small and there may be enough to hit it by the end of Q1.

 

[ElecFan]

If their current "estimates" are right, they plan on being at 5K per week by the end of March, not 5K total for all of March. If that happens then your numbers are small and there may be enough to hit it by the end of Q1.

Yes at the end of march. But what about january and february? I guestimated 7,000, which could be high looking at 2000 december expected deliveries (Elon). And even if they'd deliver ~15,000 more, they'd be below the 200,000 mark end of Q1.

 

[Barklikeadog]

So, assuming Tesla will get to the 5k/wk of M3s by the end of March 2018 and 10k end 2018, .

 

[ElecFan]

And even if they miss that by 50,000 or even 100,000, there'd still be 200,000-250,000 M3 owners receiving their 7500$ tax credit. And the rest 3750$. That seems not too bad to me.
(Of course they could mess up big time and not even get to half of that number, but that would be exceptional, even for Elon.)

 

[dsvick]

- If 2017 Q1 is repeated in 2018 Q1 there will be 10,400 S/X delivered

They have been increasing deliveries every quarter this year so this number is probably low.

 

[ElecFan]

They have been increasing deliveries every quarter this year so this number is probably low.

Could be. 2015 Q1 S/X was ~3000 lower so 2018 could be ~3000 higher. Doesn't change a great deal. I guess Tesla could play with their delivery dates to be sure the 200,000 mark is reached in Q2.

 

[zer0cool]

I think your S/X deliveries in Q1 is probably 5k too low... Model 3 deliveries is really anyone's guess... Basically if they actually can produce according to the current planned schedule, it's more likely than not that they will reach 200k by Q1. However if production is really slow and there are even more delays, then 200k will be reached in Q2.

Honestly for the health of Tesla, I would rather hope they don't have more significant delays.

 

[McHoffa]

Yes at the end of march. But what about january and february? I guestimated 7,000, which could be high looking at 2000 december expected deliveries (Elon). And even if they'd deliver ~15,000 more, they'd be below the 200,000 mark end of Q1.

Elon said on the earnings call that they still expect a few thousand per week by end of year or at the latest middle of January. Even if it’s 2000 per week and doesn’t ramp up any further that’s maybe 26k Model 3s in Q1, but that’s a production hell continues scenario. More like 2000 per week end of December (let’s say 4K total for December if we’re lucky) and same rate in January (9k), 3k per week February (12k) and 4K per week March (18k), ending Q1 at 5k per week. That’s 39k Model 3s in Q1 if the ramp happens plus 4K in December.

Plus as others have said, S/X sales should increase.

 

[ElecFan]

Elon said on the earnings call that they still expect a few thousand per week by end of year or at the latest middle of January. Even if it’s 2000 per week and doesn’t ramp up any further that’s maybe 26k Model 3s in Q1, but that’s a production hell continues scenario. More like 2000 per week end of December (let’s say 4K total for December if we’re lucky) and same rate in January (9k), 3k per week February (12k) and 4K per week March (18k), ending Q1 at 5k per week. That’s 39k Model 3s in Q1 if the ramp happens plus 4K in December.

Plus as others have said, S/X sales should increase.

IF the ramp up is that quick (what remains to be seen), I guess they'll reach ~200,000-250,000 M3 deliveries by the end of Q3, so they still serve the largest part of US reservations with the 7500$ tax credit.
The rest will get 3750$, I guess. Sounds still like a great deal to me.

 

[McHoffa]

IF the ramp up is that quick (what remains to be seen), I guess they'll reach ~200,000-250,000 M3 deliveries by the end of Q3, so they still serve the largest part of US reservations with the 7500$ tax credit.
The rest will get 3750$, I guess. Sounds still like a great deal to me.

if the ramp is that quick, only Q1 and Q2 get the full credit. If the ramp is delayed enough to push 200k into Q2 then yeah, most reservations (aside from AWD and Performance) will get the full credit. As it stands now though, every week it's delayed is 5000+ more people at the tail end (June) that lose the full credit

 

[ElecFan]

if the ramp is that quick, only Q1 and Q2 get the full credit. If the ramp is delayed enough to push 200k into Q2 then yeah, most reservations (aside from AWD and Performance) will get the full credit. As it stands now though, every week it's delayed is 5000+ more people at the tail end (June) that lose the full credit

As I understand it from this video, when they get to 200,000 in Q1 the full tax credit is on for Q2 and Q3.

 

[Krazaak]

As I understand it from this video, when they get to 200,000 in Q1 the full tax credit is on for Q2 and Q3.

Unfortunately they are incorrect.

The phase out begins at the beginning of the 2nd quarter after the quarter in which they deliver their 200,000th vehicle.

So...

Quarter they deliver #200,000: full credit
Quarter after that: full credit
2nd quarter after: Phase out, 2 quarters of 50%, 2 quarters of 25%

Take a look at the bottom of this page for an example.

Federal Tax Credits for Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Cars

 

[ElecFan]

Unfortunately they are incorrect.

The phase out begins at the beginning of the 2nd quarter after the quarter in which they deliver their 200,000th vehicle.

So...

Quarter they deliver #200,000: full credit
Quarter after that: full credit
2nd quarter after: Phase out, 2 quarters of 50%, 2 quarters of 25%

Take a look at the bottom of this page for an example.

Federal Tax Credits for Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Cars

Well, well, that changes things.
Let's then hope there will be no more bottleneck-delays and they can ramp up to 10,000 per week in Q2 and get to 150,000+ cars. After all, if the automation is working flawless, it wouldn't need to take much of an effort to speed it up.
Now I understand peoples' concern better. All be it, 3750$ for every buyer is still great. In Holland we don't have such a generous deal (only for lease).

 

[ummgood]

They have been increasing deliveries every quarter this year so this number is probably low.

That might be true but one thing that hasn't been brought up is the possible cancellation of the EV tax credit all together. If there are rumors of that Tesla might see an increase in sales Q4 of 2017 and I would guess that they'll have a pretty tough quarter with sales of Model S/X in Q1 of 2018.

 

[dsvick]

That might be true but one thing that hasn't been brought up is the possible cancellation of the EV tax credit all together. If there are rumors of that Tesla might see an increase in sales Q4 of 2017 and I would guess that they'll have a pretty tough quarter with sales of Model S/X in Q1 of 2018.

Possibly, but I don't think it would have that much of an affect right away. You may see an increase in orders for people that want an S or X and for whom the tax credit makes the difference, but that would be evened out by those for whom it doesn't matter. And, there are probably enough model 3 buyers that won't care to keep those sales going for several months as well. If there is an affect I'd expect to see it, at least, several months after it is announced.

 

[DouglasR]

For me, it's a question of whether to wait for the dual motor 3. The Delivery Estimator says I would get the big battery version in the November-January time frame, so likely eligible for the full credit, but the dual motor version would not be available until July-September 2018, so likely with a reduced credit or none at all. Also, I take those estimates with a grain of salt. Assuming my invitation arrives toward the end of the time frame, I would guess the dual motor version would not be actually delivered until some time in 2019. Does that sound right?

I'd prefer the dual motor version, and I would be willing to wait for it, but I'm not sure it's worth the extra cost (which they haven't yet stated) PLUS the loss of the credit.

 

[run-the-joules]

For me, it's a question of whether to wait for the dual motor 3. The Delivery Estimator says I would get the big battery version in the November-January time frame, so likely eligible for the full credit, but the dual motor version would not be available until July-September 2018, so likely with a reduced credit or none at all. Also, I take those estimates with a grain of salt. Assuming my invitation arrives toward the end of the time frame, I would guess the dual motor version would not be actually delivered until some time in 2019. Does that sound right?

I'd prefer the dual motor version, and I would be willing to wait for it, but I'm not sure it's worth the extra cost (which they haven't yet stated) PLUS the loss of the credit.

You should definitely wait.