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200,000th US Delivery

When will Tesla make the 200,000th US delivery?

  • April

    Votes: 12 5.2%
  • May

    Votes: 12 5.2%
  • June

    Votes: 28 12.2%
  • July

    Votes: 177 77.3%

  • Total voters
    229

bomquito

Member
Nov 17, 2017
310
118
So-Cal
This means that customers should be able to enjoy the fed tax credits until 12/31/18. I really hope you guesses are right. I have a Jul-Sep delivery window for my model 3. Non-owner reserved 05/2017
 

SteveG3

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Sep 21, 2012
4,013
15,450
US

That would be nice, and while not impossible, that’s an effort just starting to show a little teeth.

What would really be nice is if they revamped the program to something like first 3 million EVs from any manufacturer rather than first several hundred thousand from each of 15 or so manufacturers. Current system softens the blow for those moving as slowly as possible to EVs... ie includes a disincentive for this transition.
 

Reciprocity

Active Member
Feb 27, 2017
4,160
11,389
Chicagoland
Possible that Tesla could redirect enough cars to all places outside of the US. But it's highly unlikely. As much as it would mean to some people, it could alienate some as well. The credit could and should be changed to a set date and phase out from there, just like the solar credits. Also, Tesla seems to be pushing out the cheaper cars where less people can even take advantage of the fill credit.

My guess is that it gets extended/fixed because someone just has to tell Trump that the Chinese and Germans will get more credits then the Americans on cars made in Germany and China.
 

TaoJones

Beyond Driven
Nov 10, 2014
3,064
3,028
The Americas
Can't wait to see the balls-out domestic production volume the 2nd half of this year. For bonus points, I hope they nail that 200,000th delivered domestic unit on Day 1 of Q3 (to maximize those 2 remaining quarters at full tax credit eligibility.

Of course, extending the tax credit would be a welcome but not at all expected surprise. Because, after all, that would be, um, helpful and timely, even.
 
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Reactions: Mobius484

sweter

Member
Jul 6, 2017
423
1,925
London, UK / Wroclaw, POL
Can't wait to see the balls-out domestic production volume the 2nd half of this year. For bonus points, I hope they nail that 200,000th delivered domestic unit on Day 1 of Q3 (to maximize those 2 remaining quarters at full tax credit eligibility.

Does it matter if they hit it on Day 1 or Day 45 of Q3?

I voted July, I think they're doing everything possible (Canada) for this.

In July they plan to have 5k/week production which means even more Americans will get the full credit. And if Europe is now scheduled for 2019 it means that pretty much all production will go to the US for the full tax credit, maybe with a Canadian delivery here and there. And SP should be much higher at that point which for many also means better budgets. Win win win.

You Americans should be super happy about this :)
 

Big Earl

bnkwupt
Supporting Member
Jul 12, 2017
6,086
11,629
Springfield, VA
Does it matter if they hit it on Day 1 or Day 45 of Q3?

I voted July, I think they're doing everything possible (Canada) for this.

In July they plan to have 5k/week production which means even more Americans will get the full credit. And if Europe is now scheduled for 2019 it means that pretty much all production will go to the US for the full tax credit, maybe with a Canadian delivery here and there. And SP should be much higher at that point which for many also means better budgets. Win win win.

You Americans should be super happy about this :)

It doesn’t matter if it’s day one or later in the quarter. They should shoot for day one, since that will result in the most people getting the federal tax credit. My hope is that the plan moves forward as you described it. :cool:
 

dhanson865

Active Member
Feb 16, 2013
4,809
9,486
Knoxville, Tennessee
tesla200kphasout-png.288038


On the topic of Tesla and 200,000 the current insideevs scrorecard totals are:

US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger

2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (17,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 38,889 (16,689 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 end 64,305 (25,416 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2016 end 111,424 (47,119 for 2016 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2017 end 161,571 (50,147 for 2017 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)
2018 partial 169,431 (7,860 for partial 2018 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)

Jan 2018 was ~3400
Feb 2018 was ~4500

Lets assume round thousands to make the math simple and increase by 1000 per month until we hit 200,000. I'm not saying that will happen but if it did where does that put us?

Mar 2018 will be ~6000
April 2018 will be ~7000
May 2018 will be ~8000
June 2018 will be ~9000
July 2018 will be ~10,000 (209,431) triggered July is in Q3 so full credit until end of 2018.

Q3 2018 Full credit still
Q4 2018 Full credit still
Q1 2019 50% of full amount
Q2 2019 50% of full amount
Q3 2019 25% of full amount
Q4 2019 25% of full amount
Q1 2020 no credit

To do that they can't sell more than 30,500 or so in the US between March 1 and June 30. Then they can open the flood gates on Jul 1 with no reason to hesitate or focus on Canadian or European shipments. Any thing they make over 30,500 in that time they need to sell outside the US.

In a nice scenario they make 45,000 or so in those 4 months and sell the excess 15,000 or so to Canadian customers. Maybe they switch over to Canadian car production for a couple of weeks in June and then switch back to US and stock pile a couple of weeks worth for July delivery.

If somehow they make more than US and Canada need in those 4 months they have to pick a 3rd country to start sending cars to. I doubt it comes to that. Surely there are enough Canadian reservations to absorb any overflow for a few months.
 

30seconds

Active Member
Feb 28, 2013
2,253
5,728
SF
after GM does in order to maximize the political pressure to extend it.

Otherwise mercedes, VW, etc. will be able to sell their EVs at a substantial discount compared to GM (and tesla)
 

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