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200,000th US Delivery

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by ValueAnalyst, Mar 21, 2018.

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When will Tesla make the 200,000th US delivery?

  1. April

    12 vote(s)
    5.2%
  2. May

    12 vote(s)
    5.2%
  3. June

    28 vote(s)
    12.2%
  4. July

    177 vote(s)
    77.3%
  1. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    Please feel free to share your reasoning.
     
  2. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    July, to maximize the EV credit.
     
    • Like x 6
  3. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    July, as explained 5-6 weeks ago in post #2503 here

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    (more details in some posts within a page before or after the one with post #2503)

    VA, to be nice, I won't name names of the "nonsense, no way that happens crowd" ; )
     
    • Like x 1
  4. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

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    Definitely July. C'mon, this is Elon Musk's Co. It only makes sense.
     
    • Funny x 1
  5. bomquito

    bomquito Member

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    This means that customers should be able to enjoy the fed tax credits until 12/31/18. I really hope you guesses are right. I have a Jul-Sep delivery window for my model 3. Non-owner reserved 05/2017
     
  6. Troy916

    Troy916 Member

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    I think with the news that they are starting to invite Canadian owners, signs point to the 200k in the US being pushed till July 2018.
     
    • Like x 2
  7. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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  8. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    • Funny x 2
    • Like x 1
  9. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    That would be nice, and while not impossible, that’s an effort just starting to show a little teeth.

    What would really be nice is if they revamped the program to something like first 3 million EVs from any manufacturer rather than first several hundred thousand from each of 15 or so manufacturers. Current system softens the blow for those moving as slowly as possible to EVs... ie includes a disincentive for this transition.
     
    • Like x 4
  10. Reciprocity

    Reciprocity Active Member

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    Possible that Tesla could redirect enough cars to all places outside of the US. But it's highly unlikely. As much as it would mean to some people, it could alienate some as well. The credit could and should be changed to a set date and phase out from there, just like the solar credits. Also, Tesla seems to be pushing out the cheaper cars where less people can even take advantage of the fill credit.

    My guess is that it gets extended/fixed because someone just has to tell Trump that the Chinese and Germans will get more credits then the Americans on cars made in Germany and China.
     
    • Like x 1
    • Funny x 1
  11. TaoJones

    TaoJones Beyond Driven

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    Can't wait to see the balls-out domestic production volume the 2nd half of this year. For bonus points, I hope they nail that 200,000th delivered domestic unit on Day 1 of Q3 (to maximize those 2 remaining quarters at full tax credit eligibility.

    Of course, extending the tax credit would be a welcome but not at all expected surprise. Because, after all, that would be, um, helpful and timely, even.
     
    • Like x 1
  12. BioSehnsucht

    BioSehnsucht Model 3 LR

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    Almost disappointed there isn't a joke option of "3 months, 6 months definitely" ;)

    I am hoping for July... but also hoping they hit their production targets, and they stave off hitting it sooner by massively delivering Model 3s to Canada.
     
    • Funny x 2
  13. pz1975

    pz1975 Supporting Member

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    I vote August.
     
    • Funny x 1
  14. sweter

    sweter Member

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    Does it matter if they hit it on Day 1 or Day 45 of Q3?

    I voted July, I think they're doing everything possible (Canada) for this.

    In July they plan to have 5k/week production which means even more Americans will get the full credit. And if Europe is now scheduled for 2019 it means that pretty much all production will go to the US for the full tax credit, maybe with a Canadian delivery here and there. And SP should be much higher at that point which for many also means better budgets. Win win win.

    You Americans should be super happy about this :)
     
    • Like x 2
  15. Big Earl

    Big Earl bnkwupt

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    It doesn’t matter if it’s day one or later in the quarter. They should shoot for day one, since that will result in the most people getting the federal tax credit. My hope is that the plan moves forward as you described it. :cool:
     
  16. Sonny Daze

    Sonny Daze Member

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    • Like x 1
  17. dhanson865

    dhanson865 Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    On the topic of Tesla and 200,000 the current insideevs scrorecard totals are:

    US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger

    2011 end 1,900
    2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
    2013 end 22,200 (17,650 for 2013 + prior years)
    2014 end 38,889 (16,689 for 2014 + prior years)
    2015 end 64,305 (25,416 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
    2016 end 111,424 (47,119 for 2016 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
    2017 end 161,571 (50,147 for 2017 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)
    2018 partial 169,431 (7,860 for partial 2018 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)

    Jan 2018 was ~3400
    Feb 2018 was ~4500

    Lets assume round thousands to make the math simple and increase by 1000 per month until we hit 200,000. I'm not saying that will happen but if it did where does that put us?

    Mar 2018 will be ~6000
    April 2018 will be ~7000
    May 2018 will be ~8000
    June 2018 will be ~9000
    July 2018 will be ~10,000 (209,431) triggered July is in Q3 so full credit until end of 2018.

    Q3 2018 Full credit still
    Q4 2018 Full credit still
    Q1 2019 50% of full amount
    Q2 2019 50% of full amount
    Q3 2019 25% of full amount
    Q4 2019 25% of full amount
    Q1 2020 no credit

    To do that they can't sell more than 30,500 or so in the US between March 1 and June 30. Then they can open the flood gates on Jul 1 with no reason to hesitate or focus on Canadian or European shipments. Any thing they make over 30,500 in that time they need to sell outside the US.

    In a nice scenario they make 45,000 or so in those 4 months and sell the excess 15,000 or so to Canadian customers. Maybe they switch over to Canadian car production for a couple of weeks in June and then switch back to US and stock pile a couple of weeks worth for July delivery.

    If somehow they make more than US and Canada need in those 4 months they have to pick a 3rd country to start sending cars to. I doubt it comes to that. Surely there are enough Canadian reservations to absorb any overflow for a few months.
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  18. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    after GM does in order to maximize the political pressure to extend it.

    Otherwise mercedes, VW, etc. will be able to sell their EVs at a substantial discount compared to GM (and tesla)
     
  19. MorrisonHiker

    MorrisonHiker S 100D 2020.44.15

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    Actually, it means that buyers would benefit from the tax credit through 12/31/19. See the above post by @dhanson865 .
     
  20. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    now we have Canadians being invited to configure and being told as little as 4 weeks for delivery. sure looks like deferring 200K to Q3 is being attempted.

    Electrek
     
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