200,000th US Delivery

[ValueAnalyst]

I think it's a prudent thing to do temper the pace of US delivery early in Q2, in order to leave all options open. They will have to deliver some cars in Canada anyway, no resources are wasted by doing deliveries in Apr/May. They can wait till June to see how close they are in the US to 200K before deciding to do those special maneuvers that you think are risky. Until then, it doesn't cost them anything to leave the options open IMO.

Good point, thanks! I'm *hopeful* that Tesla will be able to come close to its end-March goal and choose to ramp as quickly as possible thereafter, but we'll soon find out!

 

[ValueAnalyst]

We’ll find out more in 12 hours, but it seems that 1Q deliveries will be strong. Does anyone still think Tesla is trying to push the 200,000th US delivery to July?

 

[mongo]

We’ll find out more in 12 hours, but it seems that 1Q deliveries will be strong. Does anyone still think Tesla is trying to push the 200,000th US delivery to July?

Yes

 

[wdolson]

Opening up Model 3 deliveries to Canada early is a sign they are. There is also some mysterious dirt moving at the GigaFactory. They may be preparing a temporary lot for end of Q2 production. Though it could be another building to support semi production or something.

 

[mongo]

Opening up Model 3 deliveries to Canada early is a sign they are. There is also some mysterious dirt moving at the GigaFactory. They may be preparing a temporary lot for end of Q2 production. Though it could be another building to support semi production or something.

Interesting idea, it is supposedly the new parking lot so they can continue building GF1, but based on timing and route, that could work. Sparks is the limit of a round trip journey (5 hrs, 260 miles each way).

 

[wdolson]

This would be a one time use of the space, so they could temporarily use it to store cars at the end of the quarter, then use it as an employee parking lot after July 1. The only downsides are a delivery hit end of Q2, which is made up early Q3 and some ticked off employees at the GF for a couple of weeks.

 

[Zaxxon]

Taking this morning's numbers into account, I now guesstimate:

Entering 2018: 162,000 delvieres in the US
Q1: 8,180 Model 3 (all have been in the US so far, correct? Canada starting this Q), plus 50% of 11,730 S, 10,070 X: 21,800 / 2 = 10,900 + 8,180 = 19,080 US deliveries in Q1.

Total: 162,000 + 19,080 = 181,080.

That leaves < 19k for Q2 in the US if Tesla wants to shift the trigger to Q3.

I also updated my Model 3 ramp estimate to take into account the guided 2k this week and ramp to 5k/week in 'about 3 months,' taking a conservative view that they'll hit 5k the first week of August (4 months from now) and that the ramp from 2k to 5k will be tilted toward the second half of the quarter. That leads to about 35k Model 3s produced in Q2 at an ending rate of 3,800/week. There are 2k in transit now and will likely be around 5k in transit then, so a net of 3k more in transit at that point. So around 32k deliveries of Model 3 this quarter. Tesla also guided that Models S and X are on track to hit around 100k deliveries this year. They're a bit shy of 22k after Q1, leaving 78k for the final 3 quarters. That's about 26k each quarter.

Normally about half would go to the US (~13k in Q2). Let's also assume Tesla is able to shift 50% of Q2 Model 3 production to Canada. That'd leave 16k Model 3s in the US in Q2.

181k + 13k + 16k = 210k US deliveries at the end of Q2. That's using what I would expect to be reasonable estimates for US/non-US split. The take-away for me is that Tesla would have to shift approximately another 10k away from the US this quarter in order to stave off the 200,000th delivery for another quarter. That's certainly doable, but would require some significant delivery bandwidth for Canada.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Taking this morning's numbers into account, I now guesstimate:

Entering 2018: 162,000 delvieres in the US
Q1: 8,180 Model 3 (all have been in the US so far, correct? Canada starting this Q), plus 50% of 11,730 S, 10,070 X: 21,800 / 2 = 10,900 + 8,180 = 19,080 US deliveries in Q1.

Total: 162,000 + 19,080 = 181,080.

That leaves < 19k for Q2 in the US if Tesla wants to shift the trigger to Q3.

I also updated my Model 3 ramp estimate to take into account the guided 2k this week and ramp to 5k/week in 'about 3 months,' taking a conservative view that they'll hit 5k the first week of August (4 months from now) and that the ramp from 2k to 5k will be tilted toward the second half of the quarter. That leads to about 35k Model 3s produced in Q2 at an ending rate of 3,800/week. There are 2k in transit now and will likely be around 5k in transit then, so a net of 3k more in transit at that point. So around 32k deliveries of Model 3 this quarter. Tesla also guided that Models S and X are on track to hit around 100k deliveries this year. They're a bit shy of 22k after Q1, leaving 78k for the final 3 quarters. That's about 26k each quarter.

Normally about half would go to the US (~13k in Q2). Let's also assume Tesla is able to shift 50% of Q2 Model 3 production to Canada. That'd leave 16k Model 3s in the US in Q2.

181k + 13k + 16k = 210k US deliveries at the end of Q2. That's using what I would expect to be reasonable estimates for US/non-US split. The take-away for me is that Tesla would have to shift approximately another 10k away from the US this quarter in order to stave off the 200,000th delivery for another quarter. That's certainly doable, but would require some significant delivery bandwidth for Canada.

I think 50% MS/X % in US is too high, my impression is more like 40%. I also think 32k M3 total delivery is too low. They're going through the middle of the "S" curve in April so I expect the bigger jump to come earlier in Q2 such as April, vs towards the end in June. I expect 3k/wk delivery, or ~36k total for the quarter. Here is how I see Tesla ducking under 200k in Q2, key is to deliver a lot to Canada, ~70% of M3 production.

 

[dhanson865]

Q1: 8,180 Model 3 (all have been in the US so far, correct?

InsideEVs is counting them as US. Per their scorecard I have:

US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger

2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (17,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 38,889 (16,689 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 end 64,305 (25,416 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2016 end 111,424 (47,119 for 2016 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2017 end 161,571 (50,147 for 2017 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)
2018 partial 179,551 (17,980 for partial 2018 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)

Q1 was 17,980 US deliveries, leaving ~20,445 US deliveries in Q2 to not trigger the phaseout (send any excess to Canada until July 1 2018)

 

[Reciprocity]

I think 50% MS/X % in US is too high, my impression is more like 40%. I also think 32k M3 total delivery is too low. They're going through the middle of the "S" curve in April so I expect the bigger jump to come earlier in Q2 such as April, vs towards the end in June. I expect 3k/wk delivery, or ~36k total for the quarter. Here is how I see Tesla ducking under 200k in Q2, key is to deliver a lot to Canada, ~70% of M3 production.

View attachment 291493

Zaxxon seems like the worst case scenario and yours seems like a more likely course that they would take IF they wanted to move that date back. It would only call for holding 2-3 delivers per location in the US for a few days.

To me the issue with your projection is the volume of Canadian reservations. I believe at this point that AWD would be required at a minimum and possibly even the smaller battery option in the worst case scenario. Its important to note, that Tesla should have a very good idea what people are waiting for. So they could push smaller battery up if required or it could be later in the year, depending on the total Canada demand.

 

[schonelucht]

70% of 36,000 is over 25,000 deliveries in Canada. That's not going to happen. The reservation list just isn't that deep. Remember that nearly all first day and a majority of second day reservers from Canada were already invited to configure.

 

[mongo]

70% of 36,000 is over 25,000 deliveries in Canada. That's not going to happen. The reservation list just isn't that deep. Remember that nearly all first day and a majority of second day reservers from Canada were already invited to configure.

I may be having a food coma from lunch, but why does the Canadian configuration invite make it not possible? Did they also receive their cars? Or do we know the number of invites?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Zaxxon seems like the worst case scenario and yours seems like a more likely course that they would take IF they wanted to move that date back. It would only call for holding 2-3 delivers per location in the US for a few days.

To me the issue with your projection is the volume of Canadian reservations. I believe at this point that AWD would be required at a minimum and possibly even the smaller battery option in the worst case scenario. Its important to note, that Tesla should have a very good idea what people are waiting for. So they could push smaller battery up if required or it could be later in the year, depending on the total Canada demand.

70% of 36,000 is over 25,000 deliveries in Canada. That's not going to happen. The reservation list just isn't that deep. Remember that nearly all first day and a majority of second day reservers from Canada were already invited to configure.

Reasonable concern. I forgot who, but someone here theorized that Canada at 1/10 of US population, likely has 1/10 of US # of reservation, so 25k could be around the ball park figure of total Canadian reservations, and we certainly can't account for 100% conversion to orders. In Troy's sheet it shows ~50% conversion rate in the invitations that were sent out, consider that majority of Canadians want AWD, 50% conversion rate is pretty impressive. If Tesla can roll out AWD soon in Q2, I think they can deliver a lot of cars into Canada, maybe not 25k, but if they can come in like say 5k cars, then there are a few other knobs that they can tweak. One they can send additional 5k cars to EU, or bank 5k US delivery into the 1st week of July, by that time that should be close to just 1 week of US production/delivery.

Edit: given sweter's answer below with 50k Canadian reservation, I think delivering 25K in Q2 in Canada seems feasible.

 

[sweter]

Model3Tracker.info lists Canada at 10% of reservations, which at 500k is 50k. Easy.

EDIT: Link https://www.model3tracker.info/graphs_reservation_donut.php

 

[schonelucht]

Model3Tracker.info lists Canada at 10% of reservations, which at 500k is 50k. Easy.

EDIT: Link https://www.model3tracker.info/graphs_reservation_donut.php

Don't forget these trackers are biased towards English speaking countries. And that does that do order are more likely to fill in their data as opposed to those who don't. Canada accounts for 3,4% of global Tesla sales in 2017. I see little reason to assume the Model 3 would comparatively be 3 times more popular in Canada. If there were really 50k Canadian reservation holders, there is also noway Tesla would already have invited nearly all of first day prospects with just 1 big + 1 small batch.

Using a more reasonable 5% of global reservations being from Canada brings us to 25k reservations. Unless short range becomes available as well, I think 70% is a strong upper bound or 17.5k possible sales from the list. Reality is likely lower.

 

[Reciprocity]

Reasonable concern. I forgot who, but someone here theorized that Canada at 1/10 of US population, likely has 1/10 of US # of reservation, so 25k could be around the ball park figure of total Canadian reservations, and we certainly can't account for 100% conversion to orders. In Troy's sheet it shows ~50% conversion rate in the invitations that were sent out, consider that majority of Canadians want AWD, 50% conversion rate is pretty impressive. If Tesla can roll out AWD soon in Q2, I think they can deliver a lot of cars into Canada, maybe not 25k, but if they can come in like say 5k cars, then there are a few other knobs that they can tweak. One they can send additional 5k cars to EU, or bank 5k US delivery into the 1st week of July, by that time that should be close to just 1 week of US production/delivery.

Edit: given sweter's answer below with 50k Canadian reservation, I think delivering 25K in Q2 in Canada seems feasible.

The 10% was me, but I think Schon poured some cold water on that. I actually think a good proxy for Canada might be above 10% like California is higher percent then its population alone would indicate. In part, because they can afford more expensive cars but mostly because they are more liberal and more inclined to be all in on the mission. I think Canada as it relates to the model 3, could be a bit higher because of the types of people there and the model 3 is more economical. But when you consider AWD, you really dont need that in California but its pretty much mandatory in Canada. I am thinking its closer to 40k, but you will want AWD to get the needed amount to divert enough model 3s.

 

[Waiting4M3]

The 10% was me, but I think Schon poured some cold water on that. I actually think a good proxy for Canada might be above 10% like California is higher percent then its population alone would indicate. In part, because they can afford more expensive cars but mostly because they are more liberal and more inclined to be all in on the mission. I think Canada as it relates to the model 3, could be a bit higher because of the types of people there and the model 3 is more economical. But when you consider AWD, you really dont need that in California but its pretty much mandatory in Canada. I am thinking its closer to 40k, but you will want AWD to get the needed amount to divert enough model 3s.

FYI From Troy's sheet that I saw this morning, Canadians showing 49 configured/delivered, and 90 deferring, so 35% conversion rate, vs US show about a 76% conversion rate. A pretty big difference. Tesla need to get the AWD out ASAP.

 

[dhanson865]

FYI From Troy's sheet that I saw this morning, Canadians showing 49 configured/delivered, and 90 deferring, so 35% conversion rate, vs US show about a 76% conversion rate. A pretty big difference. Tesla need to get the AWD out ASAP.

Some thoughts on how soon ASAP is.

Well if it takes 2 weeks for delivery and they max out at 3000 cars per week (model 3) and we want to focus on the US for the first 20,000 of the quarter we only need 15,000 or so for Canada and they would have to be out the factory door before June 15th, meaning the beginning of the Canada push would have to be around May 7th production. But not all of those have to be AWD.

So they have 6-8 weeks to get AWD production up to speed before it would affect pushing to Canada in Q2.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Some thoughts on how soon ASAP is.

Well if it takes 2 weeks for delivery and they max out at 3000 cars per week (model 3) and we want to focus on the US for the first 20,000 of the quarter we only need 15,000 or so for Canada and they would have to be out the factory door before June 15th, meaning the beginning of the Canada push would have to be around May 7th production. But not all of those have to be AWD.

So they have 6-8 weeks to get AWD production up to speed before it would affect pushing to Canada in Q2.

Another practical consideration, there are something like 10 stores/service centers in Canada, 25k cars means 2500 cars per store, or almost 30 deliveries per store per day. May be pushing it.

 

[goto10]

Another practical consideration, there are something like 10 stores/service centers in Canada, 25k cars means 2500 cars per store, or almost 30 deliveries per store per day. May be pushing it.

Even in the US they are setting up high-volume delivery centers in areas with many deliveries. San Diego, for instance.