Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

200,000th US Delivery

When will Tesla make the 200,000th US delivery?

  • April

    Votes: 12 5.2%
  • May

    Votes: 12 5.2%
  • June

    Votes: 28 12.2%
  • July

    Votes: 177 77.3%

  • Total voters
    229
This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
There are some US vins assigned in that special range that I assumed was for Canada. So, back to having no clue where there is that gap.

In other news : target output of between 30k and 40k Model 3's this quarter. If true, then the subject of this thread will fall this quarter.
If they can "hide" 10k M3 in transit, and stuff several thousands of MS/X/3 into inventory, it may still be (slightly) possible to duck under 200k this Q.
upload_2018-4-8_21-9-25-png.292787
 
Another thing they can do this quarter is produce demo cars that go to all the showrooms and service loaners. They have 151 stores in the US, one floor car and a couple of test drive cars at each store, that's almost 500 cars. Then 10X per service center on average (some are busier than others, but I'm throwing out an average) and that's about another 1000. That combined with sending as many Model 3s to Canada and prioritizing other international orders for Model S/X then warehousing cars at the end of the quarter, they can make it.

They need to stay under about 19,500 US deliveries this quarter and they delivered around 18K US cars last quarter. Their productions costs would be higher this quarter as they would have a big inventory at the end of the quarter, but Q3 would be staggeringly profitable. If they sell 10-20K cars stockpiled at the end of the quarter the first week of July (the poor delivery people!), and then sell another 30-40K cars in Q3, they will have a very, very profitable quarter. That should shut up at least some of the FUDs for a while.
 
American deliveries are still June but Europe moved to July, China is September. Hong Kong is currently showing no estimated date. Is it possible that the new incentives in Hong Kong released a lot of pent up demand that is now getting filled? But other than that Tesla is not switching US Q2 deliveries for foreign Q2 deliveries. With regular US deliveries of the S and the X and 3 production running 30k+ and no AWD, the possibility to push 200k in July is dropping fast.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ValueAnalyst
Stopping the line for a week helps a little...
China dropping the import tax is also beneficial.
CCC Certification Process - China Certification – CCC mark certificate (3C) for China – Your expert for China Compulsory Certification
The 3 can get certified for China in 15 weeks. Many cars could get on the carrier ship in parallel...
Tesla has already passed the testing with S/X.

Factory is shut down for the Chinese inspection part of the certification...
Why would China get the M3 now? shutdown 4-5 days for inspection seems unreasonably long.

I think the shutdown is for automation as the news originally said, and it should produce similar results as the Feb shutdown, a big step up in production. Having this done this early in Q2 could mean that Q2 could easily average 3-4k/wk in Q2, which could make 200k in Q2 all but impossible.
 
With Elon mentioning that Tesla wlll profitable Q3 doesnt that indicate that it is very possible that Tesla will absorb extra loss in Q2 by not delivering produced cars until 7/1. That puts the expenses for material and production of the cars in Q2, but revenue in Q3. That will boost Q3 financials and push off 200K sold until 7/1. Tesla simply announces that when they announce the Q2 production numbers and then more detail in Q2 financials release.
 
Someone should tweet EM directly on this. While he might not reply, it might get his attention.
Last 10-15 days, some one asked about 1st day line waiters, and issue got resolved.

I think EM, Tesla will try their best to make this happen, without actually compromising vehicle production - anything else in playbook will be fair game.
 
Last time he said "Tesla will do the right thing" or smth like that.

I don't think they'd want to make it public knowledge and they probably don't know themselves. They can't say they'll do it when the chance is not huge, customers might feel cheated. Also threat of expiring incentives is a great boost to sales (e.g. Norway).
 
Looking at the rate of M3 VIN assignments, it doesn't look like they're producing anything close to 2000/week this quarter. If most of the June M3 deliveries go to Canada, number 200,000 will easily be in early July. I'm convinced now that my June estimate was incorrect.
 
Looking at the rate of M3 VIN assignments, it doesn't look like they're producing anything close to 2000/week this quarter. If most of the June M3 deliveries go to Canada, number 200,000 will easily be in early July. I'm convinced now that my June estimate was incorrect.
I think 2000/wk in Q2 seems likely. The red dashed line I draw on the VIN chart below is ~2k/wk. Starting point is 12,000, which is roughly the cumulative production at the end of Q1. We're only starting to see VINs >> 20k showing up the last 3 days or so, so too early to declare anything, but I see nothing to suggest that we've fallen off the 2k/wk line. if anything, I think we are staying above it and accelerating.

upload_2018-5-6_8-40-32.png
 
Looking at the rate of M3 VIN assignments, it doesn't look like they're producing anything close to 2000/week this quarter. If most of the June M3 deliveries go to Canada, number 200,000 will easily be in early July. I'm convinced now that my June estimate was incorrect.

I think 2000/wk in Q2 seems likely. The red dashed line I draw on the VIN chart below is ~2k/wk. Starting point is 12,000, which is roughly the cumulative production at the end of Q1. We're only starting to see VINs >> 20k showing up the last 3 days or so, so too early to declare anything, but I see nothing to suggest that we've fallen off the 2k/wk line. if anything, I think we are staying above it and accelerating.

View attachment 299187

@Troy has it at 407/day, so ~2,850/wk run-rate.
 
Last edited:
  • Helpful
Reactions: EinSV
@Troy has it at 407/day, so ~2,850/wk run-rate.
While my gut feeling is that Troy's estimate is likely correct, I think it's too early to assign high confidence to it, the VIN clustering by 18" vs 19" wheels, and by geographic locations could significantly wag the time trend. I think we should wait for 1-2 full cycles of 18"+19" wheels, and Canada+US assignments to conclusively say what the real trend.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ValueAnalyst
While my gut feeling is that Troy's estimate is likely correct, I think it's too early to assign high confidence to it, the VIN clustering by 18" vs 19" wheels, and by geographic locations could significantly wag the time trend. I think we should wait for 1-2 full cycles of 18"+19" wheels, and Canada+US assignments to conclusively say what the real trend.
If you look at troy's delivery tab for the months april 2018/may 2018/june 2018 and count the amount of model 3 us cars (850) and multiply by 14, you will see that already around 12000 cars are scheduled to be delivered in this quarter. What you are suggesting is that tesla , will do no end of quarter 'californian' push, put on all costs of produced cars in this quarter and all revenue for next quarter. If it would be a difference for 100 or 200 million dollar, maybe tesla would do it.. but this sort of difference will run in the billions. I think what tesla will do is produce as many cars as possible in the next quarter, but for the rest the 200000 limit , will be reached in this quarter.
 
Q1 production totaled 34,494 (9,766 were Model 3)
Q1 deliveries totaled 29,980 (8,180 were Model 3)

So in a quarter where they weren't trying to hold back any model 3 they produced 20% more model 3 than they delivered. How many more will they produce than deliver in June of Q2 when they need to hold some back?

No need to hold back S or X, ship as many of those as they have orders for, full speed ahead. No matter if they are US, Canada, overseas, to Mars, wherever, any one they can sell ship it.

Model 3 they can ship as many to Canada as they have orders for, full speed ahead.

Model 3 production they can keep going, full speed ahead all the way to June 30th.

Model 3 deliveries for US they need to hit the brakes in June, hit the go pedal in July.