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200 kWh pack for S & X considering new Roadster

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For a mere quarter of a million you can, in 2020, have a 200 kWh battery pack - in the new Roadster. For about a year I've been saying we won't see 2170's in the S/X until late 2018 or even 2019. I know you are waiting with bated breath ;) but here's my prediction.

Tesla will offer a 200 kWh pack option for the S (certainly with an updated interior) and X. The current 100 kWh pack will become the base (and maybe only other) offering. I'm afraid it will still be 2019 and probably an extra thirty to fifty grand.

If they are confident they can get a pack this size into a roadster (and it sounds like Elon was saying it's already in the prototype) then they certainly can do so in a touring sedan or crossover. And, of course, it makes a lot more sense to put this size of battery in these than in a roadster.

Last thought re this pack - it could finally make sense to offer it as a retrofit - a lot of us might be willing to spend $50K to get this range.

Okay - hack away!
 
I'm not so sure about that. The S and X will probably at some point get a larger battery when battery tech gets better, but not 200 kWh.

My reasons:

1. The Tesla Roadster is by itself an ultra-light vehicle. It's small, sporty and has no extra weight. This allows 1.6 metric tons of the vehicle weight to be 200 kWh batteries, because the rest of the vehicle is so light.

2. The Roadster is super-expensive. Batteries are twice the cost of 100 KWh, but also using lighter racing parts instead of more mainstream parts in order to be able to use a battery that heavy also increases cost.

3. Space. Putting 200 kWh into a Model S or Model X will require twice the physical volume. There is no way to do that without changing the vehicle frame significantly, so significant that it does not fit the current production. So doing this requires a major leap and will probably be some next-gen variant of the S and X vehicles.
 
So this is interesting. EM has definitely put the cat among the pigeons with this talk of a 200 kwh pack. It throws all of his prior comments about not going any bigger right into the dumpster. Sure, they might not be able to do it right now. But the point is that Tesla sees demand for the bigger pack, and is willing to make a battery to suit.

So... queue the speculation around when the next battery upgrade is coming for the S/X.
 
The extra battery/range in the new roadster can easily be burnt when you bring the car to a race track. We don't have any details yet how they design it against overheating, but I am sure they thought of that given the ridiculous acceleration and top speed.

None of that necessarily translates into 200 kWh battery pack in S/X, but I assume that there will be some gradual upgrade as the time goes by. Nothing revolutionary though, IMHO.
 
The purpose of the bigger roadster2.0 battery isn't range, of course. It's current output. ModelS/X 100D are quicker than 75D because they can pump out higher amperage from the battery pack. Roadster needs the 200kW-hr battery therefore to generate ~1MW of power to do 0-100mph in 4.2 seconds. I don't see the comparable need in Model S/X. So I don't see why he would put 200kW-hr batteries in those vehicles.
 
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The purpose of the bigger roadster2.0 battery isn't range, of course. It's current output. ModelS/X 100D are quicker than 75D because they can pump out higher amperage from the battery pack. Roadster needs the 200kW-hr battery therefore to generate ~1MW of power to do 0-100mph in 4.2 seconds. I don't see the comparable need in Model S/X. So I don't see why he would put 200kW-hr batteries in those vehicles.

That's undoubtedly part of it. But good luck on putting that in a marketing blurb. Tesla has kicked the door open. The S/X owners will demand the bigger batteries. And I'm sure Tesla will comply. The question is when, not if.
 
With no major battery chemistry breakthroughs currently reported, how will the roadster not weigh, like ~8000lbs, even with lightweight CF parts/chassis? Won't the 200kWh pack+light wt car make the roadster heavier than a current Model X?
 
I'm not so sure about that. The S and X will probably at some point get a larger battery when battery tech gets better, but not 200 kWh.

My reasons:

1. The Tesla Roadster is by itself an ultra-light vehicle. It's small, sporty and has no extra weight. This allows 1.6 metric tons of the vehicle weight to be 200 kWh batteries, because the rest of the vehicle is so light.

2. The Roadster is super-expensive. Batteries are twice the cost of 100 KWh, but also using lighter racing parts instead of more mainstream parts in order to be able to use a battery that heavy also increases cost.

3. Space. Putting 200 kWh into a Model S or Model X will require twice the physical volume. There is no way to do that without changing the vehicle frame significantly, so significant that it does not fit the current production. So doing this requires a major leap and will probably be some next-gen variant of the S and X vehicles.

So your argument isthe Roadster can have a bigger battery because it is lighter? How about a Roadster also needs to be lighter and the weight of a touring sedan or crossover matters little.

Cost of SAnd X has been coming down, bigger battery would simply put them back where the top level cost a few months ago.
 
With no major battery chemistry breakthroughs currently reported, how will the roadster not weigh, like ~8000lbs, even with lightweight CF parts/chassis? Won't the 200kWh pack+light wt car make the roadster heavier than a current Model X?

I think there must be a significant battery chemistry breakthrough. If the new roadster has the same batteries as the Model 3, why isn't the M3 much lighter than it is?
 
So your argument isthe Roadster can have a bigger battery because it is lighter? How about a Roadster also needs to be lighter and the weight of a touring sedan or crossover matters little.

Cost of SAnd X has been coming down, bigger battery would simply put them back where the top level cost a few months ago.
There is no reason the Roadster need to be lighter than about 2.2 metric tons. With all the weight in the battery causing a really low center of gravity, the car will still feel light and corner good.
 
R2: 200 kWh, 620 miles
MS: 100 kWh, 351 miles

If nothing else changes, doubling energy should double range. Since R2 is smaller and lighter it should have more than double range.

I can image two possible reasons:
R2 needs really soft tires to do 1.9 s 0-60 mph. Could those tires decrease range so much?

Permanent magnet motors (M3) are more efficient than induction motors (S&X) when used close to max power. When only small fraction of max power is needed, permanent magnets produce too strong field and efficiency drops below induction motor. In normal driving R2 will use only a small fraction of available power.

Anything else?

For comparison racing car project Toroidion. As far as I know they have not yet made single production car. Performance numbers from net, could be too optimistic: 4 motors, total 1 MW, torque total on all wheels 24 000 Nm, production model < 1000 kg, 200 kg battery, 515 km range, top speed 450 km/h, quick and easy battery swap,
0-200 km/h 4.9 s,
0-400 km/h 11 s
 
Tesla has repeatedly said that kWh ratings of their cars will improve step by step, rather than in huge jumps. Of course a radical new chemistry could always change that, but I suspect we are not near one of those (though I don't follow that industry closely).

The point about the Roadster needing more energy simply as a by-product of its need for power is a good one. The S/X seems to be limited by traction (0-60 and 60-0 are the same time) and volumetric constraints in the fixed-size battery case. So while more energy for range alone is good, they don't need it in the S/X for reasons other than range. That means that, for the S/X, the range has to be balanced against other factors. They may have a chemistry that would allow more energy...but would it have less power? Degrade faster? Charge slower? Maybe it would take less space, but weigh more, or vice-versa? And most importantly...it might cost more.

The Roadster will be a low-volume halo car. Tesla is probably not looking for margins on it; it is more about building the brand (and getting cash for operations in the interim). Especially with its higher price, Tesla can use a very expensive chemistry in the Roadster that they might not be able to justify in the S/X where they are trying to maximize margins. The Roadster battery looks like it may have to be more dense both gravimetrically and volumetrically. That would make it POSSIBLE to stuff a lot more kWh in to the S/X, but that may not be the best approach for margins. Keeping range in the current ballpark and building out the Supercharger network may be cheaper for now (though that may not be true forever).

I agree it would be nice if they could offer a huge S/X pack, and just price it at whatever it needs to be to maintain margins. Maybe it would be so much they know uptake wouldn't justify the R&D for the new pack. Maybe the cool new batteries are simply not available yet (Tesla didn't promise the Roadster for 2 years, which may well be 3). Or maybe they are best used in another application for the moment. Who knows, there are a LOT of variables, and Tesla doesn't give us a lot of details...

I fear some people will get excited and say, if Tesla can do that for the Roadster, then we must be about to get a huge change to the S/X. I can't rule it out and that would be great, but I don't think we can draw that conclusion from what little we know now.
 
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Do we know if the Roadster 2 uses more than 1 gear? Possible for it be using shorter 1st gear which would/could use more energy at 60mph than a taller geared S/X/3? Maybe a taller 2nd gear that kicks in at 100mph or so?

I'm sure the use of 325/30/21" Michelin Pilot Cups in the rear are not Green eco low rolling resistance tires.
 
3. Space. Putting 200 kWh into a Model S or Model X will require twice the physical volume. There is no way to do that without changing the vehicle frame significantly, so significant that it does not fit the current production. So doing this requires a major leap and will probably be some next-gen variant of the S and X vehicles.

I guess in few years, we can get same battery capacity with half size and weight?
 
For a mere quarter of a million you can, in 2020, have a 200 kWh battery pack - in the new Roadster. For about a year I've been saying we won't see 2170's in the S/X until late 2018 or even 2019. I know you are waiting with bated breath ;) but here's my prediction.

Tesla will offer a 200 kWh pack option for the S (certainly with an updated interior) and X. The current 100 kWh pack will become the base (and maybe only other) offering. I'm afraid it will still be 2019 and probably an extra thirty to fifty grand.

If they are confident they can get a pack this size into a roadster (and it sounds like Elon was saying it's already in the prototype) then they certainly can do so in a touring sedan or crossover. And, of course, it makes a lot more sense to put this size of battery in these than in a roadster.

Last thought re this pack - it could finally make sense to offer it as a retrofit - a lot of us might be willing to spend $50K to get this range.

Okay - hack away!
I would definitely want a pack retrofit. Would not need to get another car, ever, or as long as the car holds together. My MX is great, but due to distances in SoCal, i could use a longer range. Fwiw, i drove nearly 25k in one year...
 
To anyone who said Tesla will not have more than 100 kWh pack and greater than 400 mile range: Suck it!

We all knew this would happen. It's basic common sense. Of course people want more range. It's called peace of mind. I'll take 1,000 mile range if the cost/benefit ratio makes sense. If Tesla could deliver 1,000 miles via a super capacitor and can put three of those under the hood, I'll take 3,000 mile range. It's all about technological progress, and cost, at the end of the day. Today's iPhone was impossible 10 years ago. But now look.

Tesla will continue to cram as much range as it can into its cars because consumers demand it. Not only that, but the competition will look to compete with Tesla on those kinds of specs. As more EVs enter the market, we can absolutely expect a range war between manufacturers for title of the longest range EV in production.

Personally I can't wait!
 
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