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2009 CARB ZEV Technology Symposium

Discussion in 'News' started by doug, Sep 21, 2009.

  1. doug

    doug Administrator / Head Moderator

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    #1 doug, Sep 21, 2009
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2009
  2. doug

    doug Administrator / Head Moderator

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  3. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    #3 stopcrazypp, Sep 22, 2009
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2009
    Cashing in on the "battery hype" while speaking against it at the same time. Same thing Audi is doing.

    BTW, to be fair it seems too many automakers are in the battery race as bandwagon jumpers, it seems only a few are serious. Also, even though a lot of us here like plug-ins, so far we still don't know if the market will accept them since they still haven't really made it into the market yet.
     
  4. dpeilow

    dpeilow Moderator

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  5. Serge

    Serge Member

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    I presume all the FUD and wishful thinking is detailed in the webcast, because I don't see it in the Bloomberg article.

    For example, the following statement
    could be interpreted as sublime bashing of EVs, because range and recharge times are currently EV's "weakest" selling points in transportation paradigm as it currently is. However, he is not incorrect; "expectations" do need to be managed in order for BEVs to gain mass-market entrance. A driver today contemplating a purchase of EV from the first wave arriving in the next 3-5 years must be aware of how fundamentally different that car is from the gasser he/she currently drives. The positive differences, as we know, are enormous and far outweigh (IMHO) the shortcomings that will become less so with time (public recharge infrastructure is in the works). A case for public education is clear.
     
  6. doug

    doug Administrator / Head Moderator

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    #6 doug, Sep 23, 2009
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2009
    That correct. Unfortunately you had to watch the webcast live. I don't know if it will be available as an archive. Also his slides aren't (yet?) available online.

    I don't know that anything he (Michael O'Brien from Toyota) said was wrong, much of it was certainly true, but overall his tone was very pessimistic about plug-ins. A shot of realism is a good thing, but he offered no solutions except a slide about how the future was HFCVs (the only time I remember his voice going up).

    Siry was there in person and made this tweet:
    The take home message I got from the way O'Brien presented the material was: Let us just keep selling NiMH hybrids (which are still a niche product) until the next generation battery chemistry comes along (not Li-ion).
     
  7. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    Forgetting the Disruptive Technology dictum.

     
  8. Serge

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    I am not at all surprised (judging from past examples) that certain entities are defending their special interests at all costs, regardless of impact to other parties involved, or even themselves (Toyota is a large organization after all; I'm sure they have internal factions vying for influence and power). I just hope CARB does their homework and not merely rewrite corporate talking points into environmental policy.
     
  9. Serge

    Serge Member

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    To paraphrase, O'Brien is arguing that more reconnaissance is necessary, we need better tanks, planes and guns, but the troops have already landed on Omaha beach and the real fight is about to start. The question is "what's Toyota's role in all this?"
     
  10. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    More like "cut and paste".
     
  11. doug

    doug Administrator / Head Moderator

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    “Consumers will not widely adopt a new technology product unless it is better in every way than what is available,” O’Brien said.

    IIRC, this lead into his HFCV slide since supposedly those vehicles offer an experience consumers are used to. Someone should have reminded him the fuel cell sessions were the previous day. This was durring the session where he supposedly should have been talking about Toyota's progress on PHEV/BEVs. (The fallout continues: Toyota: Don't Believe The Hype With Electric Cars)

    We'll see I guess. The guy from Mitsubishi opened his talk with a slide about the history of their EV program. He said they had a plug-in development program back in the '90s but killed it because CARB changed the ZEV mandate. He actually turned to face the CARB members (who were seated at the side) when he said this. Not sure how well they'll respond to a wagging finger.
     
  12. doug

    doug Administrator / Head Moderator

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    Slide #29 in this presentation, 2050 GHG Scenario Analysis - Dr. Joan Ogden (UC Davis), was interesting.

    attachment.php?attachmentid=416&stc=1&d=1253725537.jpg
    H2 FCV Vehicle Price curve based on model by Greene, Leiby and Bowman (2007). Price falls due to R&D improvements, cumulative experience and manufacturing scale-up.

    Apparently, "Shockingly low" in 2015 means $60K. I'd like to see the top of this graph.
     

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  13. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    #13 vfx, Sep 23, 2009
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2009
    Since hydrogen has always been just out of reach, I bet you could go back and find this exact chart with the "2005" number year (and it's shown 25 year fictional timeline) as "1985", 1990, 1995 and 2000. Find the '85 version and we should be there now. (and have flying cars too)
     
  14. Serge

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    Apparently, "R&D improvements, cumulative experience and manufacturing scale-up" only apply to hydrogen fuel cells, because Mr. O'Brien claims
     
  15. doug

    doug Administrator / Head Moderator

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    Cost will remain an issue for years to come, and will not be offset by large scale mass production volumes.

    There might be some truth to that for Tesla since their cells are already mass produced.
     
  16. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    There is still a bit of room for improvement in the assembly costs, but for commodity cells it is pretty much true. Of course basically no other manufacturer is using commodity cells, so it doesn't really apply in general. For the advanced cells automakers are using today, there is plenty of room for mass volumes to drive down prices.
     
  17. doug

    doug Administrator / Head Moderator

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    #17 doug, Sep 26, 2009
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2009
    The slides from JB's talk recently became available. However, the most interesting (to me) slides, which had some proprietary battery temperature data, have been understandably removed.

    Vehicle Fleet Experience Overview - JB Straubel, Tesla Motors

    The last two remaining slides are interesting in terms of customer charging behavior.



    .
     
  18. Tdave

    Tdave Member

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    Wow, that last slide in JB's presentation is huge. It shows we're naturally drawing charge current at the right times of the day to even out the daily electricity demand curve.
     
  19. ra-san

    ra-san Member

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    If I read the second to last slide right, it means that the folks charging at the defaults -- 120V, 12 Amp (the default after the package change) and 240V, 70A (default for the HPC originally included, and included with all the sig series, and some subsequent) dwarf all the others. If you consider the actual hours charged, you can see the 120V charging is by far the most common*. This seems counter to some of the Tesla statements I've been told about 120V charging being uncommon, "In general the cycling that you are seeing is not the primary use case. Most customers to date have opted for one of the 240 Volt charging solutions."

    Its unfortunate the cost cutting decision to not ship a 240V solution with every roadster was forced. On the positive side though, I hope this pushes Tesla to optimize 120V charging. It should never be preferable to 240V, but hopefully they can make it less painful that it is now.



    * granted, if you sum all the 240V vs. 120, more power and therefore more miles are charged at 240V even though likely more time is spent on 120. Even in terms of power delivered and 240 in total vs 120 in total, you can see 120 is definitely not an edge case.
     
  20. doug

    doug Administrator / Head Moderator

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    #20 doug, Oct 3, 2009
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2009

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