I wanted to get a feel for what this board thinks 2013 EPS will end up being. I am predicting $.75 - $1.9. Anyone care to share their projections? Not sure if I am batshit insane but at EPS $1.9 and $50 share price TSLA has P/E41.09647718 This is a VERY conservative P/E. If TSLA trades at 100x P/E we don't need a short squeeze to push TSLA over $100. Is my model overly optimistic? What am I doing wrong or is the picture really this pretty?
In case anyone is interested in my current financial model - here it is: In Millions of USD 12 months ending 2013-12-31Revenue $2,500,000,000.00Other Revenue, Total $10,000,000.00Total Revenue $2,510,000,000.00Cost of Revenue, Total$2,025,000,000.00Gross Profit$476,900,000.00Selling/General/Admin. Expenses, Total $150,000,000.00Research & Development $136,990,000.00Depreciation/Amortization $-Interest Expense(Income) - Net Operating $-Unusual Expense (Income) $-Other Operating Expenses, Total $-Total Operating Expense$2,311,990,000.00Operating Income $198,010,000.00Interest Income(Expense), Net Non-Operating0Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets0Other, Net $1,830,000.00Income Before Tax $199,840,000.00Income After Tax $139,888,000.00Minority Interest0Equity In Affiliates0Net Income Before Extra. Items $139,888,000.00Accounting Change0Discontinued Operations0Extraordinary Item0Net Income $139,888,000.00Preferred Dividends0Income Available to Common Excl. Extra Items $139,888,000.00Income Available to Common Incl. Extra Items $139,888,000.00Basic Weighted Average Shares0Basic EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items0Basic EPS Including Extraordinary Items0Dilution Adjustment0Diluted Weighted Average Shares 114,520,000.00Diluted EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items1.221515892Diluted EPS Including Extraordinary Items Dividends per Share - Common Stock Primary IssueGross Dividends - Common Stock Net Income after Stock Based Comp. Expense Basic EPS after Stock Based Comp. Expense Diluted EPS after Stock Based Comp. Expense Depreciation, Supplemental Total Special Items Normalized Income Before Taxes Effect of Special Items on Income Taxes Income Taxes Ex. Impact of Special Items Normalized Income After Taxes Normalized Income Avail to Common Basic Normalized EPS Diluted Normalized EPS1.221515892
might want to fix that - 1.90 eps , $50 share price is something around 26 p/e not 41. took a quick look at your income statement, i think your expenses are running about 60-80 million on the low side.
Thanks. What's interesting to me is that even with expenses raised about $80 million there is a real case to be made that the stock's fundamental value is upwards of $100. This is what makes me skeptical of my own model. Can the market really wrong by such a large amount?