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2013 EPS Projections

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by avatar, Apr 22, 2013.

  1. avatar

    avatar Member

    Sep 13, 2012
    Seattle, Washington, United States
    #1 avatar, Apr 22, 2013
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2013
    I wanted to get a feel for what this board thinks 2013 EPS will end up being. I am predicting $.75 - $1.9.

    Anyone care to share their projections?

    Not sure if I am batshit insane but at EPS $1.9 and $50 share price TSLA has


    This is a VERY conservative P/E. If TSLA trades at 100x P/E we don't need a short squeeze to push TSLA over $100. Is my model overly optimistic? What am I doing wrong or is the picture really this pretty?
  2. avatar

    avatar Member

    Sep 13, 2012
    Seattle, Washington, United States
    In case anyone is interested in my current financial model - here it is:

    In Millions of USD

    12 months ending 2013-12-31
    Revenue $2,500,000,000.00
    Other Revenue, Total $10,000,000.00
    Total Revenue $2,510,000,000.00
    Cost of Revenue, Total$2,025,000,000.00
    Gross Profit$476,900,000.00
    Selling/General/Admin. Expenses, Total $150,000,000.00
    Research & Development $136,990,000.00
    Depreciation/Amortization $-
    Interest Expense(Income) - Net Operating $-
    Unusual Expense (Income) $-
    Other Operating Expenses, Total $-
    Total Operating Expense$2,311,990,000.00
    Operating Income $198,010,000.00
    Interest Income(Expense), Net Non-Operating0
    Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets0
    Other, Net $1,830,000.00
    Income Before Tax $199,840,000.00
    Income After Tax $139,888,000.00
    Minority Interest0
    Equity In Affiliates0
    Net Income Before Extra. Items $139,888,000.00
    Accounting Change0
    Discontinued Operations0
    Extraordinary Item0
    Net Income $139,888,000.00
    Preferred Dividends0
    Income Available to Common Excl. Extra Items $139,888,000.00
    Income Available to Common Incl. Extra Items $139,888,000.00
    Basic Weighted Average Shares0
    Basic EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items0
    Basic EPS Including Extraordinary Items0
    Dilution Adjustment0
    Diluted Weighted Average Shares 114,520,000.00
    Diluted EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items1.221515892
    Diluted EPS Including Extraordinary Items
    Dividends per Share - Common Stock Primary Issue
    Gross Dividends - Common Stock
    Net Income after Stock Based Comp. Expense
    Basic EPS after Stock Based Comp. Expense
    Diluted EPS after Stock Based Comp. Expense
    Depreciation, Supplemental
    Total Special Items
    Normalized Income Before Taxes
    Effect of Special Items on Income Taxes
    Income Taxes Ex. Impact of Special Items
    Normalized Income After Taxes
    Normalized Income Avail to Common
    Basic Normalized EPS
    Diluted Normalized EPS1.221515892
  3. Citizen-T

    Citizen-T Active Member

    Aug 25, 2011
    Raleigh, NC
    I'm guessing those numbers are not in "Millions of USD".
  4. luvb2b

    luvb2b Member

    Mar 18, 2013
    might want to fix that - 1.90 eps , $50 share price is something around 26 p/e not 41. took a quick look at your income statement, i think your expenses are running about 60-80 million on the low side.
  5. avatar

    avatar Member

    Sep 13, 2012
    Seattle, Washington, United States
    Thanks. What's interesting to me is that even with expenses raised about $80 million there is a real case to be made that the stock's fundamental value is upwards of $100. This is what makes me skeptical of my own model. Can the market really wrong by such a large amount?

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