2013 EPS Projections

[avatar]

I wanted to get a feel for what this board thinks 2013 EPS will end up being. I am predicting $.75 - $1.9.

Anyone care to share their projections?

Not sure if I am batshit insane but at EPS $1.9 and $50 share price TSLA has

P/E	41.09647718

This is a VERY conservative P/E. If TSLA trades at 100x P/E we don't need a short squeeze to push TSLA over $100. Is my model overly optimistic? What am I doing wrong or is the picture really this pretty?

 

[avatar]

In case anyone is interested in my current financial model - here it is:

In Millions of USD	12 months ending 2013-12-31
Revenue	$2,500,000,000.00
Other Revenue, Total	$10,000,000.00
Total Revenue	$2,510,000,000.00
Cost of Revenue, Total	$2,025,000,000.00
Gross Profit	$476,900,000.00
Selling/General/Admin. Expenses, Total	$150,000,000.00
Research & Development	$136,990,000.00
Depreciation/Amortization	$-
Interest Expense(Income) - Net Operating	$-
Unusual Expense (Income)	$-
Other Operating Expenses, Total	$-
Total Operating Expense	$2,311,990,000.00
Operating Income	$198,010,000.00
Interest Income(Expense), Net Non-Operating	0
Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets	0
Other, Net	$1,830,000.00
Income Before Tax	$199,840,000.00
Income After Tax	$139,888,000.00
Minority Interest	0
Equity In Affiliates	0
Net Income Before Extra. Items	$139,888,000.00
Accounting Change	0
Discontinued Operations	0
Extraordinary Item	0
Net Income	$139,888,000.00
Preferred Dividends	0
Income Available to Common Excl. Extra Items	$139,888,000.00
Income Available to Common Incl. Extra Items	$139,888,000.00
Basic Weighted Average Shares	0
Basic EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items	0
Basic EPS Including Extraordinary Items	0
Dilution Adjustment	0
Diluted Weighted Average Shares	114,520,000.00
Diluted EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items	1.221515892
Diluted EPS Including Extraordinary Items
Dividends per Share - Common Stock Primary Issue
Gross Dividends - Common Stock
Net Income after Stock Based Comp. Expense
Basic EPS after Stock Based Comp. Expense
Diluted EPS after Stock Based Comp. Expense
Depreciation, Supplemental
Total Special Items
Normalized Income Before Taxes
Effect of Special Items on Income Taxes
Income Taxes Ex. Impact of Special Items
Normalized Income After Taxes
Normalized Income Avail to Common
Basic Normalized EPS
Diluted Normalized EPS	1.221515892

 

[Citizen-T]

In Millions of USD

I'm guessing those numbers are not in "Millions of USD".

 

[luvb2b]

Not sure if I am batshit insane but at EPS $1.9 and $50 share price TSLA has

P/E	41.09647718

might want to fix that - 1.90 eps , $50 share price is something around 26 p/e not 41. took a quick look at your income statement, i think your expenses are running about 60-80 million on the low side.

 

[avatar]

Thanks. What's interesting to me is that even with expenses raised about $80 million there is a real case to be made that the stock's fundamental value is upwards of $100. This is what makes me skeptical of my own model. Can the market really wrong by such a large amount?