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2013 Q1 Earnings Report thread

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Jonathan Hewitt, May 3, 2013.

  1. Jonathan Hewitt

    Jonathan Hewitt Active Member

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    Posts regarding the 2013 Q1 Earnings Report scheduled to occur next week are popping up in what seems to be every thread recently. Let's use this thread for 2013 Q1 earnings report related posts.

    For now it will be speculation in regards to possible numbers released, announcements made, etc.

    After the conference call next week a recap can be posted here of what was put out along with discussion of what it all means!
     
  2. ShortSlaver

    ShortSlaver Member

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    #2 ShortSlaver, May 3, 2013
    Last edited: May 3, 2013
    Alright, I'll bite.

    I believe the most important thing is to curb your enthusiasm.

    The market is an unpredictable place and no one can know what will happen regardless of results. It is known a profitable quarter has happened and it would be agreed the market has priced this accordingly the last month or so with dramatic rises in TSLA value.

    But what makes TSLA tricky is that it's hard to know just what that value is perceived to be. $.01 a share? $.06...$0.10? Nobody really knows. So even if it blows the lid off what was expected and adjusted, we don't know what the value is. It could beat projections handily and not really move because it wasn't enough, for instance.

    I guess my feelings are don't expect a dramatic short squeeze and don't expect a massive bump. I remember 10 years ago when AAPL was beating everything and still fell a bit after the calls. They fell because they had everything against them, enough believers propping it up but enough quick buck takes hoping for some godly number and getting out when it was *just* better than expected. The joke was always AAPL beat estimates but still fell 2% - sell AAPL before earnings calls and buy back the next day. This seriously worked for quite awhile! Of course, over time, AAPL went to insane levels but there wasn't necessarily a divine jump. Especially since there were plenty invested expecting insane jumps and massive short term gains. But the stock did its thing and gained over time.

    I've had some good luck with this stock and have ben able to turn options into actual stock which makes me happy - free stock it feels like!. But I wouldn't bank on a massive leap even if things turn out better than expected. Plenty of people are betting on that (I have May options too) and there isn't a single person betting on negative EPS right now obviously. If TSLA comes out at a far better EPS and guidance then there might be a crazy few days. But I imagine it will be a healthy number with nice guidance and something the shares prove their mid-50's level and possibly enthusiasm kicks it somewhat higher. But I wouldn't plan for a Tsunami of Pain. I think a lot of that is priced in and that's good. But I'd hold onto my shares and let it grow over the coming years.

    I can't possibly know anything but I do feel like it's really hard to know how the market will react to various EPS and guidance numbers. How high is high? Where will it go? Nothing is guaranteed and anything could happen.

    Adding:

    Q1 Cars delivered: ~4950 cars
    Q1 Revenue: ~$535,000,000
    Q1 GAAP EPS: ~$.125
    2013 guidance: ~23,500 cars
     
  3. anticitizen13.7

    anticitizen13.7 Enemy of the Status Quo

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    Unpredictability in the short term is almost a given. I can see a modest quarterly profit report causing the stock to fall a little bit. I can also see the price going up if media hype on the day after the earnings report gets more retail investors interested in the stock, causing a flood of purchase orders.

    The numbers I'll be looking at will be Cars delivered and Worldwide orders placed. A consistent flow of orders for the Model S will bode well for the future.
     
  4. ShortSlaver

    ShortSlaver Member

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    I agree with you but the one thing is what does "modest" mean? That's the trick here - I just don't have a clue. So a number can come in and there's just a lot of gray area open for interpretation. TSLA comes in at $.20 with 5200 cars sold and 25,000 expected this year at 25% margins, yeah it's about to fly off the charts. But there's much more possibility for uncertainty. And I just don't even know what "modest" or "pretty good" means.

    I should add, what I've posted on my first post would probably be considered more than modest and in fact amazingly good.
     
  5. jeffhre

    jeffhre Member

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    Wouldn't expect too much from most earnings announcements. Buy on the rumor, sell on the news, as the saying goes. Tesla seems to have such skeptical depths of naysayers though. Folks who resolutely insist that any possibility of profit has been manufactured from potential or actual accounting shenanigans. So maybe the actual news could be such a shock, that there is a pop! (see how I hedged it there!)
     
  6. Jonathan Hewitt

    Jonathan Hewitt Active Member

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    I think this is quite a possibility. To take what you said a little further, this SA article talks about what effect neutral news OR good news will have on the share price:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1402621-tesla-the-high-cost-of-shorting-increases-chances-of-short-covering?source=yahoo

    Spoiler alert: he believes that neutral news will cause a steady rise in the stock price over the next few months and that any good news will cause a short squeeze. I'm assuming he didn't talk about bad news because we all know it would almost assuredly cause the stock to drop. I'm not sure what to think at this point but am hoping for the best.
     
  7. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    I'm in general agreement with ShortSlaver above. A large amount has been built into the stock already, so be a little cautious while staying long.
     
  8. anticitizen13.7

    anticitizen13.7 Enemy of the Status Quo

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    I actually don't have any idea either.

    I think "modest" will be more a reflection on the subjective reaction of investors: if market participants see the earnings report and think "oh, that's OK, no big deal", I think that would reflect "modest" earnings. On the other hand, if general sentiment is "WTFOMG how did they make that much money?!?!!" I would say that would reflect excellent earnings.
     
  9. nygiants242

    nygiants242 Member

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    Just to confirm.. Is the release tomorrow and the conference call on the 8th? That is what Google Finance is saying right now:

    May 6, 2013
    Q1 2013 TESLA MOTORS INC Earnings Release

    May 8, 2013
    Q1 2013 TESLA MOTORS INC Earnings Conference Call - 5:30PM EDT


    I would imagine it is all on one day though, meaning the 8th. No? Thanks for clarifying! Looking forward to the numbers for sure.
     
  10. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    Tesla Motors Announces Date for First Quarter 2013 Financial Results (NASDAQ:TSLA)

     
  11. nygiants242

    nygiants242 Member

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  12. gg_got_a_tesla

    gg_got_a_tesla Model S: VIN P65513, Model 3 Res Holder

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  13. Jonathan Hewitt

    Jonathan Hewitt Active Member

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    Patience...All good things come with time! ;) Let's hope this is a good thing, haha.
     
  14. hershey101

    hershey101 Member

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    T minus one hour and 17 minutes

    - - - Updated - - -

    Seems like buyers are still there pushing the stock up after hours.
     
  15. mulder1231

    mulder1231 Active Member

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    Q1 Shareholder letter is up...

     
  16. DJ Frustration

    DJ Frustration Model X Sig, Former Model S, Model 3 Res

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    Huge!!!! $0.12 EPS $562 Million in Revenue!!! Records!!!!!
     
  17. fluxemag

    fluxemag Member

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    I thought it was going to pop after reading the numbers. Aftermarket trading was above $61 for a moment, but back down to $58 now, being pushed around 50 cents at a time by one lots. Global demand expected to exceed 30k per year! Really an awesome quarter all around, great guidance. Only thing that might be keeping the stock down is the last paragraph about cap ex.
     
  18. ShortSlaver

    ShortSlaver Member

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    Over 60 now, even on high volume AH won't compare to tomorrow...
     
  19. fluxemag

    fluxemag Member

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    Maybe people are just slow readers lol.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The letter alleviated all of my fears of diminishing demand for the car. Blow out numbers too.
     

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