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2013 Q1 Earnings Report thread
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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- TSLA
ShortSlaver
Member
???? The DOE loan warrant was 10.8 million, and the GAAP profit was 11.2 million. They specifically have a line item showing that they had 556 thousand profit not counting the warrant reversal.
ShortSlaver
Member
It's going to be worse in the morning. Much worse. This is going to be painful for shorts - more than it has already.
I will not be shocked if there is a squeeze into the $100.00 range by Friday.
The question is... what to do then ?
I am long TSLA, but I am sure many will take profit (nothing bad about it!).
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
Actually, carrying the model to its conclusion, it hit it on the nose.
As I said in the original post, the $57 excluded a number of credits, and with those same exclusions it prediction $33m in Q4 with $40m actual. Using the same ratio on $57m gets you to $68m.
Frankly, its not really that accurate. But I thought it was hilarious how close it came.
mitch672
Active Member
Be strong, chant "I will not sell even a portion of my shares until 3 digits are achieved"
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
They don't go away permanently. The market is likely (but not necessarily) going to be saturated this year. Next year the same requirements are in effect, and then they are multiplied by 4 in 2015-2017. ZEV credits aren't going away any time soon.
And GHG and CAFE will be steady income regardless. GHG was ~25% of the total, and CAFE likely was a bit less. My current research on CAFE (which I don't know much about) indicates that it likely matches the GHG credits in long term revenue because MPG has a direct relationship to greenhouse gasses, and they are both set up under the same rule. So if the social cost is $23/Mg for GHG, then it's likely the same when you translate it into MPG. If both have the same value, and if my model is correct, then GHG and CAFE credits were worth ~50% of the regulatory credit revenue this quarter, and that revenue likely will continue.
Ok, i'm a bit of a novice when it comes to these types of things, but i do own a fair bit of TSLA... so could someone just tell me if we should expect it to continue climbing tomorrow, or if it'll likely settle down or drop a bit from todays after-hours? it just seems like WAY to fast of a jump to maintain throughout a day of trading (but like i said, i don't know much about it).
of course... one can never be sure, but what's the typical outcome from something like this?
of course... one can never be sure, but what's the typical outcome from something like this?
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
Yes, it was an awesome call, to go with a great letter.
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I'm not really sure what to expect tomorrow. If it keeps going up from $70 I'll probably retire.
Indeed, and I liked that Elon was talking about reducing the deposit since "they didn't need the cash".
Nobody can tell you what is going to happen - if anyone could it would be the same as being able to print money. Even the best investors are nowhere near that level.
The best someone can do for you is to tell you how to trade depending on your beliefs and needs. Do you believe that Tesla has a strong chance be a great company in the long term and go all the way to become a leading force in the automotive market? Then you would be ill advised to sell your shares just because you are unsure of how they are going to trade the next couple of days.
Do you need the money soon, or just not interested in Tesla long term? Then you have to try to time your sales. Almost impossible to hit the peak. On approach can be to sell a part to lock in some profits and stay on for the ride with the rest to see how things develop. Really - short term trading/timing is really hard. Think about whether you think the next announcements will move the stock further (supercharger announcement and "under the nose" announcement coming up). Also, there could be some very strong upward movement if there is a short squeeze. You might keep some or all shares for that, and then try to sell going up or going down on that ride (again, you will not hit the peak, almost nobody does).
You might also keep this generic advice in mind: If you do not have a good story about why you are in a stock, you should probably get out of it.
Personally, I have a bedrock of shares that I've invested long term, and then a much smaller amount that I trade to take advantage of any insight I think I have. I am grossly overweight in the stock right now, and will take a tiny bit of profit (5% of my position or thereabouts). Most of the shares I am keeping for the next 5-10 years.
Be strong, chant "I will not sell even a portion of my shares until 3 digits are achieved"
"...where the first of the three digits is a number higher than 1."
Nobody knows. But we do know that there are ~30.000.000 shorts that just lost $15/share, so that's roughly US$0.5B down the drain for the shorts. And some of these shorts will be forced to sell and that certainly won't drive the price down.
My guess: open at $70, up to $75 in early hours, close at $65. With such specific numbers you can be certain I'm wrong.
Thank you very much for the detailed response. I am DEFINITELY in long term (hell, just ordered a car so i hope they'll be around!). I don't intend to sell any, i was more just curious about what we may be able to expect from something like this.
Thanks again!
Lol - are you kidding? close at $65? With 30MM shorts? We are looking at $100+ a share by Friday.
1,7 million shares have just been sold by people disagreeing with you. These kind of volumes are not your grandma or a few retail investors. These people aren't kidding.
On the other hand, 1,7 million shares have been bought by people who think $65-73 are looking like a good deal. Time will show who is right...
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