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2014 1 QTR predictions/results

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Chickenlittle, Mar 30, 2014.

  1. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    yes it is that time. qtr ends this Monday. of course ZEV credits come back, costs associated with fix unknown, number of cars produced, where 1000 cars in pipeline going? don't see much vin analysis anymore. not even hearing any production rates from factory. this qtr has more unknowns than any previous qtr I can remember. everyone listening for more information on gigafactory but have we lost track of the qtr results? there were some delivery numbers from Norway, but I haven't seen anyothers
     
  2. TSLAopt

    TSLAopt Active Member

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    I don't think ZEV credits will have any significant impact anymore. I just wouldn't count on it is all I'm saying.
    I would say TSLA beats guidance by a couple hundred cars at most...if they are going to wildly beat guidance I think that maybe they are supposed to preannounce that once they know which I imagine would be in the next week or so.
    If there was a big beat we also would have heard from someone on factory tours...there is a 90 day NDA signed but I would think some excitement would still come out somehow if people were seeing something better than expected.

    My eyes are really set on Q2 and Q3 earnings as I think that is when the significant ramp up will be.
     
  3. sleepyhead

    sleepyhead Active Member

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    Are we sure of this?

    I am asking, because I haven't kept up with it. But I don't understand why they would be coming back. My understanding is that ZEV credits do not run on a calendar year, but rather on a fiscal year that does not end Dec. 31. So if ZEV was $0 in Q4, I don't see why they would be significant (or even material) in Q1.
     
  4. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    Lately, my Tesla related worries haven't been about whether they would deliver on their promise. I am quite sure, that, like before, they have under-promised and will over-deliver. While I am not expecting anything as shocking as the last quarter (that one took me by surprise for sure), but the news from Norway certainly seems to suggest they were overly cautious in estimating delivery times to Europe.

    However I am worried about media perception on anything lower than Q4. Yes, I do know they warned of a decrease in deliveries/realized revenue, due to cars being shipped, but you guys know how some outlets like to take things out of context and spin them. I can already see the headlines claiming how "Tesla's momentum has stopped", how the bubble is about to burst, etc. You know the guy with the running theory on how "Tesla demand has peaked" - which he derives from (knowingly) misinterpreting the initial delivers (years of reservations hitting production) as the peak. What do you think he will do with e.g. 10% fewer deliveries than Q4? "Tesla running out of charge?" ... "The end of the road for Tesla?" Headlines with word games at the level of a 10 year old, with an obligatory question mark at the end, as anything else would require actual accountability, research behind the inflammatory claims.

    Talking numbers, I think they projected 6400 deliveries, whereas Q4 was 6900. I expect reality between those 2 figures - better than what they announced but below last quarter. That boat to China takes an awful long time to get there...
     
  5. dirkhh

    dirkhh Middle-aged Member

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    They seem to be desperate to meet the number. I have now heard of at least three service centers that don't have loaners as they were all sold and noticed two weeks ago that the store folks were actively pushing interested customers to buying inventory cars. Add to that the mad dash in Norway and I think it's pretty clear that they are very worried about missing the number
     
  6. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    Don't they do that at the end of every quarter?
     
  7. tentonine

    tentonine Member

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    #7 tentonine, Mar 30, 2014
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2014
    I'm worried about this too, especially as I think Elon said at the time of the last conference call that they wouldn't try to time deliveries for the end of the quarter so much in future. I wonder if they had to slow production for a day or two while incorporating the new shield into the production process and now need to make up for it?
     
  8. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    i am not sure thats why i posed the question

    - - - Updated - - -

    also wondered about that but this fix is to be done at service centers, doesnt seem like a big deal to do, but i am totally uninformed on this. when they announce guidance, they are already within about 6 weeks of the qtr end. i suspect they also knew of the fix then as well. they may be trying to beat the guidance with the rush. being that close to the end of the qtr i suspect their uncertaintly is minimal with people waiting 2-3 months for the cars
     
  9. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    #9 MikeC, Mar 30, 2014
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2014
    I agree with you because they didn't mention them in guidance and I think they're obligated to, right?

    But why shouldn't they be back? The CARB regulations haven't changed (battery swap counting as fast refueling was postponed) and there are no new EVs or FCVs on the road selling in significant quantities. And TM has continued to sell electric cars, so they should be stocking up the credits since they haven't been selling them. They've sold way more EVs by now than 2013 Q1.

    However, as of 9/30/13, TM owned 276 credits and had sold 1,311.52, according to Zero Emission Vehicle Credits

    I wonder when the credits are awarded: At each sale? Quarterly? At the end of the year?
     
  10. sleepyhead

    sleepyhead Active Member

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    ZEV credits would provide a huge boost. Last year they got $68m in Q1. I was not aware that ZEV credits are a sure thing for Q1, and you alluded that they are coming back as a fact.

    I am asking a serious question, because I was using zero ZEV in my model (to leave room for a possibility of a small surprise), but if they are "back" then this could be a big thing for TSLA.

    Like I said, I have not kept up with ZEV and really would like to know if anyone (CapOp?) has done any estimates for what TSLA might get in Q1 or 2014. Have the price of ZEV come down in the market?

    @DaveT - Have you seen what the Wall St. analysts are modelling in for ZEV for Q1 and 2014?
     
  11. mkjayakumar

    mkjayakumar Active Member

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    Tony Williams might be good source to answer questions around ZEV credits. You might want to search his name here and send him a PM
     
  12. Bgarret

    Bgarret Model S ownin' Michigan scofflaw

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    Sleepy - I think the best answer you are going to get is a conditional "maybe". In 2013, Tesla sold 2408 cars in California in Q1 and booked $68 million in revenue. Q2 was 2308 California cars and $51 in ZEV revenue, Q3 was 1823 California cars, $10 million in revenue and a disclosed carryover of 276 credits into the new ZEV fiscal year starting October 1, 2013 and running to September 30, 2014. In Q4 they sold 1793 California cars and declared 0 ZEV revenue. A couple of points and opinions:

    - Tesla currently has at least 276 ZEV credits to sell - if they sold these at an equivalent price to the 2013 ZEV marketplace, that would equate to about $42 million in earnings.

    - Tesla likely has accumulated an additional approx. 350 - 400 in Q4 of 2013 and Q1 of 2014. Withe the 276 in the bank, that would equal a possible $100 million in ZEV, if there is a market/buyer for the credits.

    - The biggest changes in the ZEV market have been the overall increase in this years' ZEV requirements by about 13% due to the increase in new car sales in California and the projected increase in ZEV requirements by roughly 300% in September of 2014 due to mandated increases in compliant cars (EV or fuel cell).

    - Tesla is the only major pure EV player in the market. With this monopoly it appears to be able to recognize the ZEV revenue whenever they want...therefore, without an announcement like last year, it is difficult to predict.

    - I doubt there are any ZEV projections baked into analysts models because of their unpredictability and based on the analysts (possibly set up) low expectations and consensus for little or no profit in Q1.

    I think that Tesla may be hoarding their current credits with the thought that they will be worth more as we get closer to September....or, they may drop over $100 million of profit on their Q1 earnings and blow away both GAAP and non-GAAP earnings....or - is there a lady or a tiger behind curtain #3?

    ZEV is still the law in California, how the market adjusts and how Tesla plays their hand is anyone's guess.
     
  13. Mario Kadastik

    Mario Kadastik Active Member

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    So a valid discussion got started on the EU outlook thread. For Q1 Norway alone got over 2000 cars, probably total for rest of EU is a bit below 1k meaning that over 40% of all Q1 deliveries are for EU without any lease accounting. Then also in US not all cars are sold with lease so anyone more familiar on how this accounting should be done can maybe chime in if we can expect for the first time a GAAP positive quarter :)

    Just as not to yammer just so here's my contribution: Estonians bought at least 4 cars in Q1 :) May have been a few more that are still organizing shipping or arriving, but those I know for sure so Q4 2013 -> Q1 2014 the growth is 400% :D
     
  14. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Active Member

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    #14 vgrinshpun, Apr 3, 2014
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2014
    The table included below is a summary of the EV sales data from the http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/. I beliefve that European sales data included in this blog are based on official European registration data, but am not sure what is the source for the US numbers. I have e-mailed the author of the blog asking for clarification. Based on the data below the total Model S deliveries in Q1 are 6408. Since March registrations are available only for Norway, Nertherlands and Sweden, the total for European deliveries in March is conservative.


    Snap12.png

    EDIT: TABLE IS UPDATED - IT ORIGINALLY ERRONEOUSLY INCLUDED 1083 DELIVERIES IN EUROPE IN JANUARY. THE ACTUAL NUMBER POSTED IN THE REFERENCED BLOG WAS 298.
     
  15. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    Thx for this. If TM delivered 7100 that would be another good beat vs guidance.
     
  16. GasDoc

    GasDoc Member

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  17. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Active Member

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    The numbers used in this Motley Fool article are consistent with the table in my original post. Based on historical data the Q1 results could be released during second week of May. TM might also pre-announce deliveries if they indeed significantly beat them, say by 10-15%
     
  18. Todd Burch

    Todd Burch Electron Pilot

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    I didn't read the article I'll admit, but I suspect a large portion of Tesla-related posts at the Fool use this forum as their source...

    Just saying if A gets its source from B, A isn't corroborating B's data...it's just repeating it :).
     
  19. marvinat0rz

    marvinat0rz Member

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    I'll help you fill out the Norway numbers:

    January: 132
    February: 431
    March: 1493

    2056 in total. One news source reports 134 in january, but two cars up or down don't make a difference. The Motley Fool quote seems solid.

    Source: Bilsalget i februar : OFV AS (there's an applet about halfway down the page)
     
  20. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    If the numbrs hold up this won't be a "good beat", this will be a shockwave. Tesla has specifically guided for lower sales in Q1 (due to cars being shipped to Europe and Asia), so expectations were low.

    Granted, the "Norway surprise" is now out of the bag, so the shock to the market won't be as big, but still, many expected those numbers to be at the expense of US sales. If this is really true, though, that's really something.

    Next up? Teslas arriving in China in Q2. Now that's a real wildcard...
     

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