Not surprising if you consider that the funds for the $5,000 provincial rebate were exhausted during the quarter. There was a rush to purchase in time to claim the rebate.
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2014 1 QTR predictions/results
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
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Not surprising if you consider that the funds for the $5,000 provincial rebate were exhausted during the quarter. There was a rush to purchase in time to claim the rebate.
pz1975
Active Member
1)Does anyone have the source to this rule requiring Tesla to preannounce if they beat by 15% or more over guidance?
i would like to see the specific language.
i seem to remember AAPL having wild beats often times that I didn't think they pre-announced on but I could be wrong.
2)does anyone want to talk about the Elephant in the room? Guidance they will give for Q2 deliveries. That is what I think would have the biggest effect on the stock. My feeling is that it will be 7000-7500.
i think the 3rd quarter is where production will really ramp up with China deliveries going full swing in that quarter along with Panasonic maximizing their battery supply rate by that quarter to Tesla.
I think the numbers are a bit generous. I believe deliveries were diverted from elsewhere to attempt to meet the high demand in Norway. Elon's mentioned it before that he doesn't want the wait time to be too unreasonable. I'm guessing that demand is real high (why wouldn't it be with those incentives!) and the wait time was starting to become absurd. That might have even caused reservations to slow down. So Tesla diverted deliveries from elsewhere to Norway to attempt to meet demand and bring down the wait times. This would be my best explanation. I can't think of anything else that would explain the huge jump in deliveries to Norway.
marvinat0rz
Member
This is a good line of reasoning. We need to dig up more March delivery numbers for other markets and see if they're lower than usual.
100 deliveries in 8 countries is pretty conservative in my view, but even if there are 0, Tesla still delivered at least 6700 cars, assuming a minimum of 4000 for US deliveries.
In regards to the elephant in the room, there is no way Tesla will guide at low as 7000 or 7500 in terms of deliveries, let alone production. Tesla is currently between 700 and 725 cars per week (but could be up to 750, although unlikely). Tesla will probably average around 750 cars per week in the second quarter as it needs to fill Chinese (Tesla shouldn't want the Chinese waiting for them) and RHD demand, which means production is at minimum 9000 cars in Q2. The likely guidance is 8000-8500 due to conservative estimating and adding more cars into transit.
In regards to the elephant in the room, there is no way Tesla will guide at low as 7000 or 7500 in terms of deliveries, let alone production. Tesla is currently between 700 and 725 cars per week (but could be up to 750, although unlikely). Tesla will probably average around 750 cars per week in the second quarter as it needs to fill Chinese (Tesla shouldn't want the Chinese waiting for them) and RHD demand, which means production is at minimum 9000 cars in Q2. The likely guidance is 8000-8500 due to conservative estimating and adding more cars into transit.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
If they deliver ~7k in Q1 (taking a 10% beat) and guide for 8k in Q2, then that's 15k in 2014H1. To get to 35k they need to do 20k or 10k per quarter in Q3, Q4 and if we assume a 10% or so beat to ca 40k, then that's ~12k per quarter. So I too would put the Q2 guidance more in the 8-9k range leaning somewhere in the middle following a more linear path.
Official registration numbers for March in Germany is 143.
That leads to
Jan 2014: 30
Feb 2014: 66
Mar 2014: 143
Total 2014: 239
Source: German Tesla Forum and KBA Monatliche Neuzulassungen
That leads to
Jan 2014: 30
Feb 2014: 66
Mar 2014: 143
Total 2014: 239
Source: German Tesla Forum and KBA Monatliche Neuzulassungen
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
My only hesitation in guessing very high production numbers for Q1/Q2 is that I haven't seen any evidence yet that Panasonic significantly ramped up their battery production. Last guidance points to a dramatic increase between Q2 and Q3, so I am guessing that whatever needs to happen inside Panasonic, will happen then. There is no reason to think Tesla is the one ramping up here. Tesla would probably be able to increase production much sooner if they weren't batter constrained.
Am I missing something?
Am I missing something?
Here is my theory - Tesla delivered enough cars in Q1 in the US to be the top selling in its price range (aka more than 7 series, S Class, A8 etc.). So we need to find what the top selling car among those was and use that number to estimate US. I don't think Tesla will give away that sales crown going forward.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Large Luxury Car | March 2014 | March 2013 | % Change | 2014 YTD | 2013 YTD | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Audi A7 * | 854 | 797 | 7.2% | 2106 | 2083 | 1.1% |
Audi A8 | 477 | 563 | -15.3% | 1174 | 1462 | -19.7% |
3063 | 877 | 249% | 4127 | 2071 | 99.3% | |
707 | 1046 | -32.4% | 1882 | 2338 | -19.5% | |
556 | 440 | 26.4% | 1209 | 1245 | -2.9% | |
Lexus LS | 744 | 980 | -24.1% | 1967 | 2860 | -31.2% |
604 | 563 | 7.3% | 1483 | 1695 | -12.5% | |
2299 | 1216 | 89.1% | 5369 | 3077 | 74.5% | |
442 | 411 | 7.5% | 1466 | 1384 | 5.9% | |
--- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Total | 9746 | 6893 | 41.4% | 20,783 | 18,215 | 14.1% |
I just did the looking and the S class sold 5369 this year!! way over the 3077 last year and I doubt Tesla can beat that. BMW on the other hand only sold 1882.
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Thanks, I dont think Tesla will beat MB but I'd say the 6 series number at 4127 would be a decent guess
I am getting more and more positive that Tesla will deliver 7000 cars this quarter. I am positive that Tesla beat BMW 6 series numbers for 2014 YTD in the US, Canada will surely be ~115 for Q1, and Europe will be at least 2,751 (298 Jan+601 Feb+1493 Norway+26 Sweden+190 Netherlands+143 Germany). This also supports theories that Tesla got production to 750 per week this quarter because 8000 cars averages 667 cars per week (not far from the 675 linear progression from 600 to 750).
Also, I think that Tesla is going for 40,000 deliveries in 2014. I also think that Tesla will average 1000 cars per week in the fourth quarter, yielding 12,000 cars. If we combine the first quarter (7000) and the last quarter, we get 19,000. This makes sense because 21,000 would mean 10,000 and 11,000 in the second and third quarter. The largest increase will be in Q2, perfectly timed with Panasonic's ramp up.
Also, I think that Tesla is going for 40,000 deliveries in 2014. I also think that Tesla will average 1000 cars per week in the fourth quarter, yielding 12,000 cars. If we combine the first quarter (7000) and the last quarter, we get 19,000. This makes sense because 21,000 would mean 10,000 and 11,000 in the second and third quarter. The largest increase will be in Q2, perfectly timed with Panasonic's ramp up.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Will Model S continue to double each month in Germany this year?
During October's Q & A in Germany, Elon said he hopes Germany will do 250+ units per week (or 1000+ units per month). Many people who know the Germany culture/market well in the EU forum do not think so. We'll see.
They have GUIDED to 35K deliveries, but what the actual internal target is a subject for discussion/speculation.
Wow, great growth in Germany. Doubling every month. I wonder if the Top Gear Model S coverage will help in Germany and Europe in general.
I think we have to remember that Elon had mentioned that things would really ramp up second half of this year. I believe he said that's when battery supply constraints would be eased a bit. So we may only see 6400 or so in Q1, but the increase from qtr to qtr should be fairly substantial IMO.
From the report "Battery cell supply will continue to constrain our productionin the first half of the year, but will improve significantly in the second half of 2014. " http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2960593958x0x727013/9885dd26-2e82-4052-b171-3685fd8150b3/Q4'13%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf
I think we have to remember that Elon had mentioned that things would really ramp up second half of this year. I believe he said that's when battery supply constraints would be eased a bit. So we may only see 6400 or so in Q1, but the increase from qtr to qtr should be fairly substantial IMO.
From the report "Battery cell supply will continue to constrain our productionin the first half of the year, but will improve significantly in the second half of 2014. " http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2960593958x0x727013/9885dd26-2e82-4052-b171-3685fd8150b3/Q4'13%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf
This may be the first quarter where we have some decent hard numbers on deliveries. The delivery number will probably be near guidance so I think that what would give us a real spike is guidance for the rest of the year (if given); China reservations (if given); and ZEV credits (if used).
