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2014 P85 Depreciation?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by flynnstone, Dec 29, 2019.

  1. flynnstone

    flynnstone Member

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    I’m looking at a loaded 2014 P85 with AP1, 21’s, 45k miles for $44k from Tesla. Includes the 2 year full warranty and battery/drive unit until end of 2022. Seems like a decent value for the money. I plan to drive it for a year then get a 100D.

    As the car gets closer to end of warranty though, should i expect the depreciation to be significant over the next year?
     
  2. geoffmanley

    geoffmanley Member

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    The majority of the depreciation has already occurred. Warranty and condition will be the drivers of depreciation from here on out.
     
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  3. Ostrichsak

    Ostrichsak Active Member

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    Pretty much sums it up. I would only add a little prediction of the future where EV depreciation actually levels off over the next year or two as the masses start to realize that these cars can get hundreds of thousands of miles pretty regularly w/minimal part failures along the way due to fewer parts to fail. I also see the masses converting to EVs as a result of this realization plus first-hand experiences becoming more common but fewer cars available both new and used. If your car is in good condition, you're happy with the price and features meet your needs I say go for it. As long as you don't need customer service these cars are amazing.
     
  4. thecloud

    thecloud As rhythm raced inside, the ship came alive

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    With a full year remaining on the warranty when you sell, it shouldn't be that big a hit. I'd expect no worse than mid-30s.

    If you decide to grab it (and you should, it's a great car!), please check whether the VIN is already on our list. There was a fairly limited production run of Model S P85 (and P85+) cars built with AP1, and we're trying to keep track of them all. And if you don't buy the car, would still appreciate being able to add it to the list.

    Good luck with your decision!
     
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  5. Ostrichsak

    Ostrichsak Active Member

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    My guess would be mid 30's being the worst with upper 30's or maybe even $40k being probable. If you look at the market right now the number of used Model S options has all but dried up and it's been trending that way for months. That's only going to help the resale value of these cars and I think we passed the glut of used Model S options on the market that was late last year and early this year causing some of the lower depreciation rates we've seen to this date. Unless we see a massive flood of Model S on the market (not likely as the next flood will be Model 3 cars) it's going to be simply supply v demand that helps these maintain their value as more and more new EV owners come to the table and want affordable options.
     
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  6. flynnstone

    flynnstone Member

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    will do! Thanks!
     
  7. SSedan

    SSedan Active Member

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    The lines about EVs needing almost no service or repair may be well thinking but are NOT reality based.
    I understand you are looking at a car with warranty but still I think an accurate understanding is warranted vs. the koolaid goggle people are trying to help you look thru.
    I love my P85 but my wife's same year little higher mileage Impala has been a more reliable and cheaper to repair car by a wide margin.
    Sure electric motors "should" go about forever but the rest of it is just a car and a particularly heavy one at that, which invites suspension issues.
    The chargers can have and do fail, that is $2200 and that car probably has 2. The Brembo brakes are sensitive to corrosion and if in an environment with salt believe they want a couple hundred dollars annually to clean and lubricate.
    Battery heaters are another known failure point though that is only $400. 12volt batteries are shorter lived than ICE cars and replacement is $220ish.

    Many 85 have recently suffered voltage capping reducing range separate from degradation and have had supercharging rate cut from 120kw to 70kw.

    On resale a new P85 may have been over $100k, today a AWD active suspension with more equipment and 50% more range is $80k. Based on that I think the older cars are due for more depreciation and I stand to take that beating. Two years ago I spent $50k on a pre-AP P85 was a decent deal on a well cared for car. Had become disabled by failures twice and I am in $3500 in repairs with me doing the brake labor myself which saved me probably $500 and for that I still have a secondry charger that is damaged. For $300 they swapped slave to master vs me shelling out $2200.

    At 65k 100% charge was 256miles in 2 years and a total of 93k i(28k added)is down to 242 though I think it will rebound to 246 come spring.

    I am not saying don't do it, car is a blast to drive, instant heat in winter is amazing, lots of good. Just don't agree with the disinformation about miraculous reliability and zero repairs.

    Though of another big repair the DC-DC inverter is coupled to the interior heater and is I think $2500. This is what powers the low voltage systems and recharges the 12volt.

    Your perspective car having AP will help value but if the supercharging restrictions stick and perspective buyer's realize this handicaps road tripping watch value fall. Doesn't seem to be all cars but is prevalent and unexplained.
     
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  8. tyler2323

    tyler2323 Banned

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    If you can find a P85+ the depreciation will be less. They are harder to find so demand is higher and the price should not be that much more. For another $5k you can get a P85D+ which are only made from 12/2014-4/2015 and have held their value extremely well. They are comparable to the newer P100DL with the back seats being much better and having the adaptive plus suspension. It has everything besides the 2.4 0-60 mph. You can get around 3.1-3.2 0-60mph consistently. However range is 242-253 so if that is a concern than you will have more without dual motors. But you can have almost the same experience driving as you would in a P100DL. 0-30mph is basically identical than the P100DL will start to pull away
     
  9. flynnstone

    flynnstone Member

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    Thank you everyone. Tesla charged the car to 100% and said the rated range is 249 miles. It’s fully covered for another two years, and i don’t plan on keeping it after. I’m in AZ, so no concern of salt or other snow related issues. It’s a 1 owner car and seems to be in excellent condition. Just want to drive for a year without losing my ass on it.

    05D1D5A2-E551-4874-8160-3D0CDA92B6E4.jpeg
     
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  10. tyler2323

    tyler2323 Banned

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    Yes saying zero repairs and reliability is not accurate as these cars can all have issues ranging from the door handles and the MCU screen which are the most prevalent. So the warranty will cover these issues but don’t expect there to be none. The only thing I would tell you is that Tesla used cars may come with great perks but they are not CPO cars for a reason. Due your due diligence in making sure the car is accurate with the pics and description and do your own Carfax and autocheck report cause Tesla has sold these used cars with the assumption that they have a clean titles and they had accidents on them. Plus lots that should have accidents were and have been repaired without showing any damage reported. So you definitely get peace of mind with the warranty but be strict about them being forthcoming of the condition and make sure you receive a car that has been cleaned and repaired appropriately. If they deliver something dirty etc refuse to take delivery until the issues have been fixed.
     
  11. thecloud

    thecloud As rhythm raced inside, the ship came alive

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    Yes, chargers and inverters can fail. The door handles can fail. So can the MCU (media control unit, AKA the big center screen), which costs somewhere around 2-3K out of warranty. BUT, your prospective car will have these things covered under warranty.

    For what it's worth, my car is a September 2014 P85 with AP1 and none of those things has ever failed for me in over 5 years of ownership. The car's biggest issue was a drive unit that needed to be replaced, but of course that was under warranty.
     
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  12. tyler2323

    tyler2323 Banned

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    Did you already get it? Is this it in the picture? Looks great!
     
  13. flynnstone

    flynnstone Member

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    I went to see it a few days ago, was able to drive it; and all looks good. Haven’t taken delivery yet though
     
  14. whitex

    whitex Well-Known Member

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    With the possible exception of 8 year battery+drive unit warranty expiration (not a lot of data on what happens to use Tesla value once that warranty expires).
     
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  15. SSedan

    SSedan Active Member

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    Something to consider is while warranty repairs my be low cost or free they are not hassle free.
    Most recently my car needed almost $1300 in front suspension repairs and it took a week for them to get the parts after I dropped the car off so a week in a loaner which was a little newer than my car but still rather have my car.
     
  16. whitex

    whitex Well-Known Member

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    Only a week and you had a Tesla loaner - that is a positive experience for a Tesla repair. If Tesla was to guarantee such good service to me I would have bought a new P100D last summer.
     
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  17. Ostrichsak

    Ostrichsak Active Member

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    While I don't disagree and I'm personally a fan of unique specimens, I think you and others should temper just how much you think this will help. By this I mean that outside of like a few dozen people on this forum and maybe one or two other groups... nobody really knows. I've got a P85D+ but I really didn't seek one out, I just got lucky. I'm also not putting a ton of weight in how much it will help the resale value. I think it's a better approach to assume it will basically be sold for about the same as other similar cars that are non "+" but that it will sell faster. If you go out thinking you'll get thousands more than comparable vehicles w/o the "+" I think you may be disappointed with how long it takes to sell since it just looks like an overpriced car to the average buyer.

    Also, your comparison on plays out on a prepped track in ideal conditions. On a cooler day when the tires aren't super sticky or on a public roadway where there's debris or even rain the traction limitation will be a drastic difference between those two cars. Only under perfect conditions will the P85+ come even remotely close to keeping up with a P100DL.

    Whoever says EVs have zero repairs is smoking some good stuff. While it's tough to argue that they don't have known issues I think you'd be hard pressed to find ANY car that has zero issues. Even the most reliable cars to this point have known problems and Tesla is no different. When I said EVs will be more reliable long-term I meant that it's tough to argue that hundreds of moving parts doesn't present more potential failure points than dozens of moving parts. I wasn't trying to say that EVs are flawless but I think that long-term the fear of battery packs failing at 100k or even 200k will be a distant memory once these things consistently go 500k mor more miles.

    You're 100% about your comment about the CPO program being a distant memory and Tesla selling "used cars" now because they should be purchased as such. Treat them like any other used car purchase with the added bonus of a Tesla warranty on mechanical defects and you'll be good to go. You still need to examine them fully prior to purchase because any cosmetic defects you accept are now yours to deal with. The sooner we get people to stop calling them CPO cars the sooner potential buyers will treat them with the same skepticism as any other used car and the happier the buyers will be.

    Carfax and other background check options on the market: take these with a grain of salt. It's best to assume ALL cars have been in an accident even if the Carfax comes back "clean" because all that means is that if a shop did repairs they didn't report them to Carfax which is becoming increasingly common. There's no benefit for repair shops to make that extra effort report damage so more and more don't bother these days. All a Carfax should tell you is where to examine closer to verify proper repair if something comes back. You should still examine the rest of the car as if you never pulled a Carfax and if you do this you'll be able to spot any repairs that were done and if you can't after scrutinizing closely... well... the repairs were done well enough that you can't tell which is a good thing. Just never assume that if it looks clean or a Carfax comes back clean that nothing was ever done to it.

    Also, Tesla recently starting adding a note to used cars that says if it has no reported accidents in it's history or, if it does, that it was repaired to Tesla's specifications. This is kind of nice but I would still see the previous paragraph and assume that all used cars have had work done. The nice thing is if you screen grab that photo and issues arise down the road due to repairs that Tesla said met their specifications you may have some legal recourse if things get that bad. Do your due diligence on the front end and you won't have to worry about that ugly path though.
     
  18. Ostrichsak

    Ostrichsak Active Member

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    Ain't this the truth. I keep telling people that "You get a Tesla warranty... but you have to deal with Tesla if you ever have to use it" which isn't a positive thing these days sadly.

    No doubt. Given my personal experience with several cars over the last year or so I would sign up for one-week with a loaner in a heartbeat. Our service centers in the Denver area suck though and it's an absolute nightmare if you ever need their help.

    It seems to be region dependent though as some claim to have received decent service in other parts of the country.
     
  19. SSedan

    SSedan Active Member

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    65k miles I paid $800 for 4 year maintenance
    At that time they diagnosed an issue with primary charger options were $300 to swap it to slave or $2200 replace. Chose $300 car charges at 72 amps instead of 80amps.
    Year later TPMS computer fails disabling the car due to flooding the CanBus. $600

    $700 in parts for rotors and all new pads including parking brake, labor was DIY.

    $1260 front suspension repairs.

    $400 pack heater replacement, this failure disabled the car.

    $220 12volt replacement, Ranger did this at my home.
    $40 for a washer pump DIY labor.

    Recalls on steering bolt's and airbag.

    Charge port lights have gone crappy but doesn't affect function, sounds like this is $400 to fix.
    One of the doorhandles LEDs is out sounds like they would want to do the whole handle $$$.

    Car started out in the southwest has not been in WI the whole time.

    This is all between 65-93k miles and a little over 2 years.

    I have owned cars over 200k that I didn't have this much trouble with this quickly.

    I wonder how many of the "nothing to fail" crowd own cars under 2yo.
     
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  20. Ostrichsak

    Ostrichsak Active Member

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    I'm confused. Who here said nothing can fail?
     
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