If you look here, it looks like China was 1,888. China Market situation and outlook - Page 56
Postulated that Hong Kong was 200-400.
Then Japan and Australia.
2,200 is possible. Perhaps likely.
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Postulated that Hong Kong was 200-400.
Then Japan and Australia.
2,200 is possible. Perhaps likely.
I'm sure the estimate of 2200 is accurate, but it is worth taking the 1888 number with a grain of salt as it is an import number and not a delivery number (there is some time between import and delivery).
I thought it was generally accepted practice to disclose a beat or a miss of guidance ( like Detroit Auto Show) prior to ER/CC? This would be a 10%+ delivery beat. Also, TM appears to use a lot of ZEV credits this quarter. I would think they would do this to help them get a positive EPS. If they beat delivery guidance by this much they may not need the ZEV credit support. Just my musings as I have modeled my TSLA positions/cash based on a 'just made' delivery and production numbers.
Having been one of the people who used VIN assignments to try to gauge delivery numbers in 2013 Q3 that was picked up by some analysts to predict a huge beat I am skeptical of this 8,800 delivery report. I wish TM would reveal monthly delivery numbers as it would greatly help investors.
chickensevil
Active Member
In light of this I am back to leaning toward a drop after ER. This is so crazy! I wish it were true, but I would not expect such a huge beat when all signs point to them not getting the line up fast enough. And where in the world did he get a .25 EPS from? That is just way out into left field. I would not expect such a high EPS until *maybe* Q4 and even then...
The worst part is that the numbers actually make sense to me on some level as well, which is why I am so conflicted about all of this.
The worst part is that the numbers actually make sense to me on some level as well, which is why I am so conflicted about all of this.
Vger
Active Member
Yes, I would love to believe that, but I am afraid that a projection like that could create a huge "sell on news" effect, like we have seen in other hyped Q's. Actually, I am glad to see the stock settle back a little after Elon's tweet and the 10% frenzy it created.
Concerning documentation of the big September push, in case people here missed my posts at the time: I saw with my own eyes over 60 cars at the Vancouver, BC service centre that I was told would all be delivered in the last four days of the quarter!
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Just looked at mostapasta's chart above. According to what I just said, his estimate of 50 for Canada in September is probably low by at least a factor of two!
I'm really skeptical of the Barclays note being too optimistic and setting up the market for a disappointment on earnings release. We've heard as recently as mid September Elon affirm a meet, or very slight beat, of Q3 numbers if there are no logistics issues.
If I recall correctly, in the past two quarters Elon's "slight beat" has meant a beat by <100 deliveries above guidance. We should not be expecting a significant beat by 1000 based on stitching numbers together like the VIN counting days.
If I recall correctly, in the past two quarters Elon's "slight beat" has meant a beat by <100 deliveries above guidance. We should not be expecting a significant beat by 1000 based on stitching numbers together like the VIN counting days.
I was afraid of this kind of false optimism. To be honest, I don't credit his note too much. We need to realize this is coming from the same guy/team who couldn't make the distinction between deliveries and demand a few months ago. At the price we are at, I am fine going into earnings. I just don't want an insane upshoot for no reason.
Actually generally companies will keep quiet on a self-imposed quiet period leading up to earnings, unless there is a very significant (usually negative) deviation from expectations in which they will warn the market with a pre-announcement.
Q3 2013: 5,500 deliveries. 1,000 to Europe, meaning 4,500 in NA.
InsideEV's estimate for Q3, 2013 was:
1,300 + 1,300 + 1,500 = 4,100 for U.S. which is their conjecture based on the above number.
So say that the 65% beat is on 1,500 cars. That's about 2,500 cars to the U.S. in Sept.
Sept US: 2500
EU: 1633
Asia: 2236
That's 6,400 without U.S. July, Aug, and all of Q3 in Canada. So to meet guidance, Tesla would have had to deliver 1400 additional cars to Canada in Q3 and U.S. in July and Aug.
Totally possible to meet guidance.
Q3 2014 estimates (WAGs) for July and Aug:
InsideEV's: 500 + 600 (U.S. only)
Barclay's: 1,200 + 400 (NA)
Obviously the unknowns are how big were sales to Canada, how big were sales to the U.S. in July and August, and how big was U.S. alone in Sept 2013. The lower end of the estimate range just misses or is roughly in line with guidance.
InsideEV's estimate for Q3, 2013 was:
1,300 + 1,300 + 1,500 = 4,100 for U.S. which is their conjecture based on the above number.
So say that the 65% beat is on 1,500 cars. That's about 2,500 cars to the U.S. in Sept.
Sept US: 2500
EU: 1633
Asia: 2236
That's 6,400 without U.S. July, Aug, and all of Q3 in Canada. So to meet guidance, Tesla would have had to deliver 1400 additional cars to Canada in Q3 and U.S. in July and Aug.
Totally possible to meet guidance.
Q3 2014 estimates (WAGs) for July and Aug:
InsideEV's: 500 + 600 (U.S. only)
Barclay's: 1,200 + 400 (NA)
Obviously the unknowns are how big were sales to Canada, how big were sales to the U.S. in July and August, and how big was U.S. alone in Sept 2013. The lower end of the estimate range just misses or is roughly in line with guidance.
chickensevil
Active Member
Isn't the investing arm of Barclay's the one that just came out saying that TSLA was their largest holdings?
Barclays is the 8th largest institutional holder of TSLA. As of end of Q2 they held 2,115,915 shares, increasing their position in Q2 by 3.5%.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/institutional-holdings
chickensevil
Active Member
Especially with a .25 EPS, cause that is REALLY good and way higher than Elon guided. How could you not raise your PT if you were really expecting that high of an EPS?
Thank goodness nobody is really buying it (if the reflection of the market is a fair indicator)
Perfectlogic
Member
Wouldn't say $31M is that much, I mean if they sell a thousand extra cars that would mean $100M extra in revenue with around 30% margin so there you have it. I know there is taxes too but still.
I'm almost certain there's a misnomer there and that's referring to BlackRock which now owns the entity previously known as Barclays Global Investors, so I believe it's an unrelated firm to the Barclay's note by Brian Johnson.
No misnomer here. Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings is a subsidiary of Barclays Bank PLC. The address listed by Nasdaq is the same as Barclays Bank PLC - 1 Churchill Place in London.
http://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/institutional-portfolio/barclays-global-investors-uk-holdings-ltd-97343
The confusion is perhaps because a subsidiary of Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings, named Barclays Global Investors was sold to BlackRock. BlackRock also owns TM shares and is listed on the Nasdaq site as well:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/institutional-holdings?page=2
Good thing that you were ALMOST certain...:smile:
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