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Discussion in 'Charging Standards and Infrastructure' started by Kevin Harney, Sep 26, 2014.
By Dec 31, 2014 what do you predict ?
personally - 300 worldwide and 160 in the US.
At least 250, but not more than 300.
There are 240 permitted now.
Permitted don't count. What counts is operational. Tesla map shows 200 operational just in the US by end of 2014. That is not gonna happen. It appears Tesla is concentrating on expanding the number of superchargers in the European and Asian markets at the expense of the US market. Thats not to say they are not building superchargers in the US, just not at the rate they indicated in their map.
2014 Projection and Priority routes
My guess of 275 is based on Tesla’s performance from 100 to 200. I have high confidence there will be more than 260 and less than 300 worldwide at yearend.
Globally Tesla is doing a fantastic job rolling out the Supercharger Network. Tesla is forging ahead on many fronts, while balancing customer needs to travel long distances enabled by SuperChargers.
It is a tough job with a different challenge at every site. Property owners, Planning and Zoning, building and electrical permits & inspections, utility foot dragging and nay-sayers who want multiple pubic hearings all can (and have) cause commissioning delays for new SC locations. My hopeful prediction for highlights before New Year’s include:
I-70 transcontinental route complete Topeka to Triadelphia
I-35 completion into Texas from Kansas City (I-70)
I-10 completion from Florida to Texas
I-90 across Montana to Rapid City
I-65 from Gary to Nashville
Initial deliveries in Australia
This will greatly improve US domestic connectivity, even if it takes until Spring. My highest priority is still I-84 Portland OR to Logan UT, which will come after the Montana segment is done. I hope to drive to Boise using Supercharges to celebrate the one year birthday of my Model S in April.
Are you saying 275 worldwide or just in the U.S.? If you mean worldwide, your guess may be close. But there is no way there will be 275 SC in the U.S. by the end of the year. While Tesla's map shows 200 U.S SC by the end of 2014, I think we will be lucky if the actual number of SC that are operational by December 31, 2014 in the U.S. is 140, far short of what Tesla stated as their goal. There are now about 113 U.S. SC
Currently the European and Asia installation rate exceeds the North American rate. At the 200 mark, 57% are in North America. At the current rate of installation, by the end of the year only 50% will be in North America.
So guesses for North America are in alignment.
swegman best case = 140
Skyhawk guess = 138 (275 * 50% = 138)
Tesla current installment rate = 132
Kevin Harney may be optimistic at 160
If you look at the superchargers.info charts, there has been a very consistent rate of North American SCs coming on-line since January 23 at one every 5.47 days. Given that there are 96 days left in 2014, that says 133. If this year is anything like last year, there will be a surge that happens in December (and continues into January) which will likely double the earlier rate which says 139 by Dec 31. Past results do not guarantee future performance, though.
So, 141 is my prediction just because I don't want to be bookended! I hope I am wrong on the low side but North America seems truly stuck in low gear.
I predict no Superchargers will be built in Alaska or northwest Canada.
Why wouldn't they be doing US, Asia, and Europe at the same time? I get notifications about a Supercharger coming online every day or two and it's been Asia, recently. I did get a note that Indio, CA came online 2 days ago. Going from 115 (today) to 200 in NA by year's end could be done. They've done ~40 in one month, but the permitting process is key. Application versus granted is key here.
The thing to remember is that they have multiple crews working on multiple locations at once in several countries. These things can pop up in batches.
They'll need to have a geographic strategy at this point in the year as the northern parts of the country will become more difficult as weather worsens and daylight shortens.
Oh my! I wonder if they have thought about that?
I'm sure their contractors have told that to them. However, there are many places where frozen ground isn't an issue that are on the map.
I am not saying permitted count in the total. What I am saying is that there are already 240 known ones here or coming soon. Worldwide total is over 200 now operational. 250 would be a low number in my opinion as all they really have to do is complete what is permitted to achieve that.
I predict as of December 31 there will be 275 worldwide, 145 in the U.S. with...
I-90 complete except for Coeur d'Alene
I-70 complete east to St. Louis
I-10 bridge to the Texas island not complete
Vancouver BC - Calgary AB complete
Kingston ON not complete
We're seeing a real ramp-up in U.S. and Canadian activity, so it should be exciting in December and January just like last year.
I believe the 275 is a real possibility but I am seriously hoping that the 145 is low. There are 136 permitted already so that would be very little progress from what we have pending today.
I assume that a fair number of sites currently going through permitting will not be online by the end of the year thanks to delays in permitting and/or transformer installation.
Fair assumption given past progress but I am still hoping you are wrong
Where do you get that there are 136 permitted already (see post #16, above)? We do not know that. Just because there is a dot on Tesla's map of coming soon locations and 2014 locations does not mean they have actual permits for those spots. In fact, Tesla has made it clear that the dots are just approximate locations, and could change based upon actual installation locations that are ultimately selected for permitting and construction. Supercharger.info shows there are 12 locations in the U.S. in which permits have been issued (as of 9/29/2014). Granted, they may not know of every permit that has been issued to Tesla for a SC, but it is highly unlikely that they are unaware of 124 issued permits (in the U.S.).
This Map Confusion in my post may stem from the fact that there are 113 in use, 11 under construction and 12 more permitted.