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2015 deliveries expected to be 100k/yr - what that means for investors

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by daniel Ox9EFD, Sep 30, 2014.

  1. daniel Ox9EFD

    daniel Ox9EFD Member

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    #1 daniel Ox9EFD, Sep 30, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2014
    Based on q2 financial results webcast, accessible from here -
    Tesla - Events Presentations

    Key takeaways -
    1. Tesla is confident they can meet or exceed guidance for 2014, of 35k/yr.
    2. Demand will be roughly split by half for models S and X, and will be roughly 40% US, 40% Asia and 20% Europe.
    3. As mentioned in title, 2015 run rate expected to be 100k/yr.
    4. By 2020 they expect 500k+/yr.

    As for my speculation, during 2015 we will have a much better indication of what the true demand for Tesla models S and X, since currently demand is suppressed due to limitations on production. Since there are doubts around if Tesla will meet its q2 guidance, we should expect corrections in the stock price, provided Tesla meets its q2 guidance. In 2015 if the 100k number is any close to reality, we should expect dramatic corrections in the stock price since this significantly beats expectations, and speaks well for Tesla's chance of meeting the 500k+/yr by 2020.
    I expect 2015 to be the year most of the correction to the stock price will take place, with another correction once the model 3 starts selling, in 2017 -18.

    [edit: run rate, not deliveries]
     
  2. hershey101

    hershey101 Member

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    If I remember correctly, They said they will end 2015 with a 100k/yr run-rate... That DOES NOT translate to 100K deliveries in 2015. I suspect the deliveries in 2015 will be closer to 65K.
     
  3. daniel Ox9EFD

    daniel Ox9EFD Member

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    Thanks for the correction, I'll have to listen to it again...

    - - - Updated - - -

    Yup,
    poor listening on my part. Moving along...
    (the rest of the post still holds though to some extent)
     
  4. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    Yes - you might consider requesting a moderator alter the title to reflect that end of year run rate....
     
  5. daniel Ox9EFD

    daniel Ox9EFD Member

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    Yes I'd try to ask for the moderator to alter the thread name.
     
  6. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    Elon has said 2015 60k-75k units.
     

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