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2015 Outlook Tesla Motors factory in Fremont, California.

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Benz, Nov 9, 2014.

  1. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    2014 is coming to an end (but there are still 52 days left), and so far it has been a great year for Tesla Motors, actually. But which Tesla Motors related thoughts and expectations do we have for 2015? Would you like to share your thoughts and expectations?

    There are lots of separate/different topics which can discussed here in this thread (as long as it's related to Tesla Motors factory in Fremont, California, in 2015).

    Personally, I think that 2015 is going to be the year of the Tesla Model X. All the preparations for making the Tesla Model X "a diamond without a flaw" and getting all the details right. All the preparations for the start of the production of the Tesla Model X (supply chain, body center, etc.).

    This was mentioned in the 2014 Q3 Earnings Report Shareholder Letter:
    "In contrast to Q3, actions to further increase capacity have been designed to be less disruptive, thus enabling us to increase output at a steadier and more predictable pace. For example, our Model X body center will initially be independent from our Model S body center, allowing us to start building Model X bodies without impacting Model S production."

    So, the factory shutdown as in July 2014 is not going to happen in 2015, and that's very good for the continuation of the steady pace of production of the Tesla Model S cars in 2015.

    This was also mentioned in the 2014 Q3 Earnings Report Shareholder Letter:
    "we expect our annual production will increase by over 50% in 2014, again in 2015 and probably for several years to follow."

    During the Conference Call Elon Musk confirmed that this 50% increase was purely related to the production of the Tesla Model S, meaning that the production numbers of the Tesla Model X cars will be additional to the mentioned 50% increase.

    My prediction for 2015:
    60.000 Tesla Model S deliveries
    20.000 Tesla Model X deliveries

    Some people may possibly think that that's a bit too optimistic.

    Would you like to share your thoughts and/or expectations and/or predictions?
     
  2. TSLAopt

    TSLAopt Active Member

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    I hope youre right but my estimate is 50k S and 7500 X
     
  3. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Tesla Motors – Third Quarter 2014 Shareholder Letter (first page):

    • Model S orders and deliveries alone expected to increase by 50% in 2015.

    That in combination with what Elon Musk's comments/answers during the Conference Call, leaves no room for confusion. At least, that's what I think about it.

    Tesla Model S deliveries in 2015 = 2014 x 1.5 = 33,000 x 1.5 = 49,500

    Personally, I expect a global total of 60,000 Tesla Model S deliveries in 2015. In addition to that, I expect a global total of 20,000 Tesla Model X deliveries in 2015.
     
  4. SebastianR

    SebastianR Member

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    With a lot of stretching I think the 60k Model S is attainable. But 20k Model X? No way! If we start rolling with the X in Q3, I expect more like 7.500 to 10.000 Model X - it takes time to ramp-up and they want to make sure the first cars do well before going to volume...

    Let's not forget: the Model X is not really needed to get us to Gen III / Model 3. So I don't think they will rush Model X as long as demand for Model S is strong.
     
  5. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    The ramp-up with the Tesla Model X will be much faster than with the Tesla Model S in the second half of 2012 and in 2013. They have learned a lot from the experience with the ramp-up of the Tesla Model S. They are currently much better organised and prepared than they were in 2012. The whole process is going to be much smoother. But still, you might be right anyway, and 20,000 might just be too many. It could turn out to be a few thousend less than that, but certainly not fewer than 12,000.

    Currently more than 22,500 reservations have been made for a Tesla Model X. At least 12,000 of those reservations (probably many more) will result in an order for a Tesla Model X. and those cars that have been ordered, will certainly have to be delivered, otherwise there will be unsatisfied customers. Nobody wants that to happen.
     
  6. gym7rjm

    gym7rjm Member

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    I think north american demand is much larger than expected. We are still a long way off from adequate service center and supercharger coverage. Furthermore, because SUV's are more popular in NA, I think the Model X demand in NA will be 1.25-1.5x demand of MS. I think in Q2 conference call Elon mentioned 60K production number as a conservative estimate for 2015. 50% growth for MS would be 52,500, and 7,500 MX would get us to 60K. I think there is upside potential to both the S and X figures: Some factory bottlenecks have been addressed this year with a few more planned so we might see a faster ramp to the 100k annualized run rate for S in 2015. With the lessons learned from ramping the S, hopefully we see a smoother ramp with the X.

    I'm wondering if near the end of 2015 Tesla will realize that the M3 will need a whole new factory for itself. If worldwide S+X demand pushes beyond 250k does it really make sense to build out a Model 3 line that can only produce 250K? Eventually you have some M3's being produced in Fremont and others produced elsewhere. Wouldn't it make sense to build a new factory next door to the GF exclusively for the M3 that can be expanded and built out for 1mm+?

    If that does happen, what could the additional space in Fremont be used for?
     
  7. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Thanks for posting your comments.

    The potential demand for both the Model S and the Model X is enormous.

    And I believe that in 2017 there will be 3 separate factories for the Tesla Model 3 (and also for the subsequent models that will be built on the same platform as the Tesla Model 3), one in North America, one in Europe, and one in China. Before 2025 there will be even more factories.

    Your question: "what could the additional space in Fremont be used for?"

    How about a another EV (Pick-Up Truck?) that will be built on the same skateboard-platform as the Tesla Model S and the Tesla Model X? That would be nice, I think.
     
  8. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    Nice thread. I'm glad to see a thread devoted to following the Fremont factory.

    It's really smart Tesla is taking steps to make sure that the X ramp up does not put S production at risk. I do expect the ramp up for X to go faster and smoother than it was for S.
     
  9. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Indeed.

    The question remains regarding to when exactly in Q3 2015 they will start the production of the Tesla Model X cars? The difference between the first week of July 2015 or the last week of September 2015 is pretty big (at least a few thousand Tesla Model X cars). I think that they will start the production of the Tesla Model X cars early in Q3 2015. At least that's what I have assumed for my prediction of a total of 20,000 Tesla Model X cars in 2015.
     
  10. gym7rjm

    gym7rjm Member

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    I think 3 factories exclusively for M3 in 2017 is too optimistic. I do see that eventually happening, but not by 2017 unless they do a gigantic capital raise. I could see a scenario happening where at the end of 2015 they realize Fremont is too small for M3. If they do a favorable secondary, after an M3 design reveal or something when the stock is flying high, they could easily build out a M3 Megafactory in Reno right beside the Gigafactory that would ramp up nicely in step with the GF.

    If Tesla is able to design a stellar pickup, then Fremont will definitely be too small. F150 sold over 800K in North America in 2013 and it looks like pickup truck sales are over 2 million in 2014 so far.

    Maybe the extra Fremont space could be used to build the roadster 2.0? But that would still leave a lot of left over space.
     
  11. jerjozwik

    jerjozwik Member

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    just to add this into the factory thread.

    paint shop upgrade in 2015 something something.
     
  12. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    Just thinking about the ramp-up of the Model X production line:

    Let's suppose that the first 10 "founders" cars are delivered exactly halfway into Q3. That gives 18 weeks of production in the remainder of the year. The Model S line--with all of Tesla's experience on the Model S--is only now just hitting 1,000 cars/week, so there's no way that the Model X line will move faster. Probably much slower, at least initially. Given some plausible ramp-up numbers, I think Model X production will be very unlikely to exceed 10k in 2015.

    That said, I think Elon is low-balling the Model S deliveries in 2015. In my modeling, I'm using 60k as the base case.
     
  13. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    Has there been any recent information / guidance on what the production bottleneck is? Is it still batteries from Panasonic? If so, then maybe the additional demand from the D variants has pushed Model S production up to the 1H 2015 delivery capability of Panasonic and the delay for X is also due to inability to ramp production based on battery supply. I would understand why Tesla would not want to call Panasonic out on this as they are moving forward on Gigafactory investments and otherwise acting like a very good partner.
     
  14. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    Sounds very reasonable to me. I remember remotely there were some projections from Tesla/Panasonic a while ago on how far the increased battery production w/o Gigafactory would go - does anyone still have those numbers?
     
  15. maoing

    maoing Active Member

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  16. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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    I will note that Elon stated toward the end of September that they were hoping for 15-20k Model X year one. Now given the recent decision to push back to Q3 I would put that number closer to 10-15k, but I don't see them dropping lower than that. Assuming the throw out all of the issues they had in the first 6 months of the Model S and picture them starting somewhere around a similar running in 2013, I could see 10-15k happening if they roll out quickly at the start of Q3.
     
  17. DrDave

    DrDave Member

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    It's the only way they can make the production numbers as they continue to rise.

    If it was the batteries, you would think Tesla would wait for them to stock up and run normal production, not add shifts and days.
     
  18. dhrivnak

    dhrivnak Active Member

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    I hope I am wrong but I too expect only 7500 Model X's next year. I am mildly disappointed that they have missed every target date so far. Heck they are a year behind on the CHAdeMO adapter and I an sure the Model X is much more complicated than CHAdeMO.
     
  19. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Forum member Red Sage has posted this interesting message on the Tesla Motors forum:

    --------------------------------------------------

    I think it is best to explain my rationale by working backward. Last year JB Straubel gave a presentation at Stanford. One of the slides he used forcasted Tesla Motors intent to reach a 700,000 unit capacity at Fremont by 2019. We know now that the Model ≡ will comprise 500,000 of that capacity by 2020.

    But what of the other 200,000 units? Simple. That will be comprised of the Model S and Model X.

    How will that happen? Easily. The Model S has already reached an annualized production rate of 50,000. That is why Elon Musk was able to so handily dismiss inquiries about a concern for their production during 2015. The goal is to reach a 100,000 unit production rate, equivalent to 2,000 per week, by the end of 2015. Of that, 50,000 of the Model S will be built. That happens to coincide with being 50% more than is estimated for 2014 production of Model S.

    Ultimately, the Model X will be more popular than the Model S. You can see this by comparing sales of high end crossovers to high end sedans among other marques. Consistently, the crossovers outsell the sedan counterparts by at least a 3:1 ratio. So with Model S at 50,000 per year, Model X will be on track to reach 150,000 per year as capacity expands.

    But its first year Tesla Motors will take it slow with Model X. Its production will certainly ramp up a quicker than the Model S did. And the result will be about 20,000 in 2015.

    These are, of course, minimums. I think that Tesla Motors will gradually accelerate production of Model X through 2016. Model S sales will not be 'flat', but they will not hold precedence either. Technically, neither will be the Model X. Both exist to pave the way for Model ≡, which will arrive the following year.

    ---------------------------------------------------
     
  20. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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