TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

2015 Q1 Discussion thread for Delivery numbers, Earnings Report and Conference Call

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Benz, Mar 25, 2015.

  1. Benz

    Benz Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    1,907
    Location:
    Netherlands
    As there are only 7 days remaining in Q1 of 2015, let's start our normal quarterly discussion regarding our expectations of the results of Tesla Motors in Q1 of 2015.
     
  2. Hogfighter

    Hogfighter Professional Lurker

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2012
    Messages:
    602
    Location:
    Florida
    My guesstimate is a nice beat, due to a higher ASP from more P85Ds than expected and lack of delivery issues encountered in the previous quarter.
     
  3. mostapasta

    mostapasta Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2014
    Messages:
    63
    Location:
    US
    I would be interested to know how many CPO vehicles Tesla sold this quarter in addition to new vehicles, but I doubt they will break it out.
     
  4. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2013
    Messages:
    2,573
    I haven't finished back-correcting my earlier estimates for Q4. It is apparent that China was weaker, but I really missed on Hong Kong and my revenue calculations weren't doing leasing right, hence ASP cross checking wasn't working right. In any case, here's what I'm thinking about this quarter's European deliveries:

    In any case, Europe was already running higher in January and February - the 3rd highest first two months of any quarter in Europe. Only Q4 '13 (really first quarter of European deliveries for 1,362) and Q2 '14 (1,144) were higher. The 3rd month of a quarter usually has a big bump up... about double to triple the 2nd month deliveries. All but Q4, 2013 (first real quarter of European deliveries) and Q3, 2014 due to the factory shutdown. A doubling of February is 1,060 and a tripling is 1,590. Which provides a range of 2,090 and 2,620 using this method.

    If you look at Q1 '14, Q2 '14, and Q4' 14 (again Q3 skews things due to factory shutdown), Europe sans Norway was: 1,002, 1,421, 1,783 for an average of 1,402. Note the increasing values.

    Norway... we know of 1,085 in Q1 so far with many to come in Norway. Let's conservatively estimate 1,300 for the quarter.

    So Europe sans Norway, using 1,402 average for 2014 + 1,300 for Norway = 2,702. That's higher than the tripling of February.

    Let's just use the 2,620 number for a moment. At 2,620, that means matching the Q3 2013 pent up demand first quarter deliveries. It's tied for the 2nd highest quarter ever in Europe.

    If Tesla delivered almost the same numbers as last quarter... 1,783 sans Norway, + 1,300 Norway, that would be 3,083 vehicles, or a new quarterly European record for Tesla.

    Of course, if you choose to guess a more aggressive Norway number, we're talking about 1,500 for Norway.
     
  5. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2013
    Messages:
    2,573
    China Q1

    In China, imports recently looked like this: Oct: 108, Nov: 803, Dec: 456, Jan: 99, Feb: 74.
    We know someone received the first P85D in China recently.

    My takeaway is this... that Tesla is still importing cars into China. The inventory overhang is likely real, but at a far lower number than some (bears) have speculated. For China, my model shows about 450 undelivered cars in China from Q4. If there were literally 500 or 1,000 cars stranded in China with no buyers at the end of 2014, there would be zero reason to import any cars into China in January and February. Since the P85D only recently arrived, these new imports are not P85D's. Since there's only one Model S and a limited feature set, it is unlikely that amongst 500 or 1,000 Model S's that you can't find the exact combination of car you want and your order could then be fulfilled from existing stock.

    My guess is that the inventory overhang was about 100-200 vehicles, primarily due to Osborne effect of the P85D and new rear seats with 250-350 or so vehicles were in the normal long delivery and import process.

    I'm guessing about 1,280 vehicles delivered to Asia this quarter.
     
  6. Benz

    Benz Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    1,907
    Location:
    Netherlands
    Tesla Model S deliveries in Norway:
    January 2015 = 71
    February 2015 = 321
    March 2015 = "now at 693 Model S, with more to come in next days"
     
  7. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2013
    Messages:
    2,573
    Yeah, I'm starting to believe that we are likely to within striking distance of Q1 last year's European deliveries or possibly significantly exceed it. In order to hit the 3,058 deliveries in Europe Q1 last year, Tesla had to short shrift U.S. deliveries. There were no Asian deliveries. The usual 3rd month bump wasn't there. That isn't the case this year.
     
  8. Benz

    Benz Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    1,907
    Location:
    Netherlands
    March 2014:
    1,491 Tesla Model S deliveries in Norway.

    Total Q1 2014:
    2,054 Tesla Model S deliveries in Norway.

    It is not very likely that Q1 2015 Norway figures will be as high as Q1 2014 Norway figures.
     
  9. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2012
    Messages:
    2,238
    Location:
    New York, NY
    They said on the last call they would start to break it out. I forget Deepak's specific wording as to when.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Question: Is registration data "good" to use in Norway? Because there's significant lag between that data and actual deliveries from what I understood on past CC's.
     
  10. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2013
    Messages:
    2,573
    Wouldn't it be the other way... that registration possibly lags deliveries, so deliveries may be higher than registration data.
     
  11. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2012
    Messages:
    2,238
    Location:
    New York, NY
    Right that's what I mean. Registrations wouldn't be a good indicator for deliveries. It certainly would be conservative (which can arguably be bad for expectations as well).
     
  12. Benz

    Benz Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    1,907
    Location:
    Netherlands
    As far as I know, the way it works in Europe is that a new car cannot be handed over by a dealer to the buyer (delivered) before it's got a license plate (registered). Most of the time both happen on the same day (or within a day or two), I think.

    The European monthly delivery/registration numbers are pretty reliable.
     
  13. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2012
    Messages:
    2,238
    Location:
    New York, NY
    Ah okay, knowing this is very helpful. Thank you.
     
  14. Vger

    Vger Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2009
    Messages:
    1,683
    Location:
    Salt Spring Island, BC, Canada
    There is a bizarre anomalous situation in BC this Q (and next). The BC legislature finally reinstated the $5000 point-of-sale credit for qualified alt-fuel vehicles (which includes Teslas, of course). But the new program does not go into effect until April 1. So Tesla Vancouver has at least 60 Q1-built cars sitting on their lot which they cannot deliver, because the clients refuse to accept them until April 1.

    So that is a small ding for Q1 results, and will shift a bunch of BC deliveries into Q2. In the slightly longer term, this should be good, of course, for Canadian sales since BC residents are re-incentivized to buy!

    - - - Updated - - -

    The program is funded to cover 1,500 vehicles ($7.5M). It will be interesting to see how many of those Tesla snags. When the previous program went into effect, Tesla Vancouver did not even have a store yet, so market presence was much less. Now with the store and Model X on the doorstep, BC sales could really accelerate.
     
  15. mostapasta

    mostapasta Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2014
    Messages:
    63
    Location:
    US
    You are correct, just went back and reviewed the call transcript. Deepak and Elon discussed the topic and it sounds like they will show it in the next financial statement!
     
  16. maoing

    maoing Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2014
    Messages:
    1,275
    Location:
    San Diego
    I asked this question last year. My impression is registration is required before delivery in Norway.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Keep in mind the discounted inventory sale will be nice surprise to Q1 total delivery. The reason TM didn't guide for those sales is because they were not on hook for any orders, but they will contribute for the Q1 financials (of course, had negatively affected Q4 financials). I believe TM had large inventory in China by end of Q4 from different local news reports, if it's not above 1000, but should be close. Think about that way, if suddenly TM got 1000 extra sales from China in Q1, we'll see a blockbuster Q1 ER. I can't exclude that possiblity at this piont.

     
  17. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2012
    Messages:
    2,539
    Location:
    Kongsberg, Norway
    Yes. And I think we can safely assume that Tesla has planned the shipments so that they arrive in time to not only be registered in March, but also delivered.
     
  18. Blip

    Blip Member

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2013
    Messages:
    184
    Location:
    Norway
    Kjøretøyopplysninger | Statens vegvesen can be used to get information about all cars in Norway. Knowing that all EVs (registered after 2000?) uses licence plate numbers on the form ELxxxxx, someone could write a script to extract the latest data. This this data includes registration date and make/model.
     
  19. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Member

    Joined:
    May 1, 2012
    Messages:
    663
    Location:
    Nuremburg, Germany
    A friend is looking at buying a loaner. Tesla told him, that they have to get all cars out the door by end of march, thus are offering handsome discount.

    Do you guys (and gals) all agree this is a good business practice? Why are they doing this? To please Wall Street? I don't get it.
     
  20. surfside

    surfside Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2013
    Messages:
    164
    Location:
    United States
    not sure i agree with that -- couldn't those import numbers be for cars that folks had customized new orders with options not contained within the inventory overhang?


    do you know if the loaner contains the auto pilot hardware? if not, i can understand the handsome discount. if it does include auto pilot hardware, it doesn't make sense to me...

    surfside
     

Share This Page