2015 Q1 Discussion thread for Delivery numbers, Earnings Report and Conference Call

[FredTMC]

Trip has literally no f*cking clue, be advised to ignore him.
There is no indication of weak shipments, it looks like markets outside US will be stronger then Q4, Europe 700-1000 cars more, Asia slightly less.
Also the containers may indicate Tesla ordered too much, its not typical to store stuff in containers outside if you are just "replenishing" your supply pipeline that was reduced due to port slowdown

yeah. He keeps demonstrating every quarter that he doesn't have a clue.

BTW, didn't Elon say in Feb on EC that parking lot was completely full? So, why would production be slow in these months and the parking lot is full. That makes zero sense.

Yes, Elon said they'd work to improve productivity per worker, but parking lot is still full

 

[ScepticMatt]

Maybe they used (part of) Q1 2015 to improve production efficiency, and therefore produced less cars than they normally could have produced?

From the Q4 shareholder call:
* 2 less production weeks. 1 because of less days and 1 because they gave people the first week of January off due to people working through Christmas.
* Dramatic improvement in productivity underway, laying groundwork for higher volume in the remainder of the year.

 

[Treker56]

Wonder how will they factor in CPO inventory and sales? I was at the newly opened Tyco Rd (Tysons Corner) Virginia Service Center and there were more than a dozen CPO cars on the lot.

 

[FredTMC]

Wonder how will they factor in CPO inventory and sales? I was at the newly opened Tyco Rd (Tysons Corner) Virginia Service Center and there were more than a dozen CPO cars on the lot.

They saif on last earnings call that they would breakout Used car sales as a separate item.

 

[RobStark]

They saif on last earnings call that they would breakout Used car sales as a separate item.

They are not used;they are pre-owned. :biggrin:

 

[FredTMC]

They are not used;they are pre-owned. :biggrin:

actually they're formally "certified" pre-owned.

 

[32no]

Wonder how will they factor in CPO inventory and sales? I was at the newly opened Tyco Rd (Tysons Corner) Virginia Service Center and there were more than a dozen CPO cars on the lot.

How did you know they were CPO cars? Did you look in the windows and see some "CPO" sticker? I would be surprised to see that many.

 

[DrDave]

Not sure if it means anything or not, but they don't have the whole factory working Saturdays this quarter up to the end as they have previously.

 

[FredTMC]

Not sure if it means anything or not, but they don't have the whole factory working Saturdays this quarter up to the end as they have previously.

My understanding is that Saturdays was "partial" staffing in past quarters. Not fully staffed with all depts.

 

[maoing]

A small sample today. I went to local Tesla store and there has two demo cars, one S85 and one S85D. In my previous visits at the end of Q3/Q4, there was only one demo car. So it could be sort of evidence that TM is not under pressure to meet the guidance for Q1.

 

[DrDave]

My understanding is that Saturdays was "partial" staffing in past quarters. Not fully staffed with all depts.

Maybe up front, but all of the people that actually make the car were in there working, be it body, paint, assembly, etc. They were building cars on Saturdays last year, especially in the last month of each quarter. Please don't take that away from the people in there working their butts off by saying it was "partial" staffing.

 

[hobbes]

A small sample today. I went to local Tesla store and there has two demo cars, one S85 and one S85D. In my previous visits at the end of Q3/Q4, there was only one demo car. So it could be sort of evidence that TM is not under pressure to meet the guidance for Q1.

I observed the same - was at a test drive event yesterday, the fact that they put a few cars and staff there for a whole day so close to the end of the quarter is a good sign, I think.

 

[Benz]

There is a wiki-post on TMC with the title: "Europe Q1 2015 Model S sales".

Link: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showwiki.php?title=Europe+Q1+2015+Model+S+sales

 

[uselesslogin]

There is a wiki-post on TMC with the title: "Europe Q1 2015 Model S sales".

Link: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showwiki.php?title=Europe+Q1+2015+Model+S+sales

I posted in that thread that my preliminary guess shows 3,600 deliveries in Europe this quarter. NA sales of 5,000 and Asia Pacific sales of 1,000 beat guidance. I'm extremely certain they will beat guidance but I don't know by how much.

 

[FluxCap]

And here are the official numbers for Norway.
http://www.ofvas.no/bilsalget-i-mars/category657.html
Google transladed quote:


Golf sold 1421 cars, but this is both EVs and fossils. This is almost the record Tesla sat last March...
Tesla Model S got 1140 cars, exactly the same number that I got (and I know am at least 3 above :tongue: )

Whoa! That could be huge...

 

[Zak333]

Ok guys
China: January 469, February 260, March (130%-150%) 338-390 : 1067

China Q1: 1067
Europe Q1: 3007
North America Q1: 4700
Total: 8774
What do you guys think?


TM guided to 10,000 produced and 9,500 delivered cars.

 

[Svetlin]

Ok guys
China: January 469, February 260, March (130%-150%) 338-390 : 1067

China Q1: 1067
Europe Q1: 3007
North America Q1: 4700
Total: 8774
What do you guys think?


TM guided to 10,000 produced and 9,500 delivered cars.

The Europe number doesn't include March sales from UK, Switzerland, Belgium and a few smaller markets. As far as I know, the China number doesn't include Hong Kong. And then there's Japan and Australia. All these combined might give you 500-1000 more cars, bringing you roughly around guidance.

Still, I think a narrow miss is possible, and a slight beat is likely. But not a significant beat.

 

[Zak333]

My Guess is 9,720 for Q1

 

[luca]

Ok guys
China: January 469, February 260, March (130%-150%) 338-390 : 1067

China Q1: 1067
Europe Q1: 3007
North America Q1: 4700
Total: 8774
What do you guys think?


TM guided to 10,000 produced and 9,500 delivered cars.

China should be at least: 469+260+260*2.5 = 1379

 

[Zak333]

Updated Conservative Low Number

China Q1: 1353
Europe Q1: 3007
North America Q1: 4700
Other : 600 (UK, Switzerland, Belgium, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia)

Total: 9660