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2015 Q3 Discussion thread for Delivery numbers

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by FredTMC, Sep 4, 2015.

  1. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    i couldn't find a thread for Q3 deliveries. Ends this month (September)

    thoughts on on hitting their guidance? They'll need to do it with Model S since MX deliveries will be tiny.

    My thinking is they better hit guidance (or exceed it). It's a big ramp to hit 50-55k for 2015
     
  2. Quant

    Quant Member

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    No kidding! Hope this not require a heck of a lot of thinking !!! Lol
     
  3. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    lol. Better not require a lot of thinking over at Tesla mgmt team either...
     
  4. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    I am not worried about Q3 at all. We did not hear about any issues at the factory - save for that powerline incident which I am not even sure caused a whole day of standdown - and Model X will be a tiny bit of the quarter so not really blocking anything on the production line. No weather, parts or delivery issues reported and by the looks of the EU thread, deliveries over here are picking up. To me it's in the bag.

    Now Q4, on the other hand, is a bit of a gamble, due to the X ramp, but I am optimistic.
    ~
     

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  5. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    By lowering expectations last ER, we are now set up so that "winning feels like winning." Guidance isn't much over Q2 but we know the new production line is already up from Elon's Instagram on 8/29.

    I think TSLA will get some momentum this month as people start to get in in anticipation of the Model X and quarterly numbers.
     
  6. Newb

    Newb Member

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    As DaveT suggested in the website wait times thread, it could well be that Tesla will just meet Q3 guidance (no blow-out) and then unload the "facelifted" Model S together with Model X sigs in Q4 like crazy. I find that a very plausible scenario. That strategy could result in more than 15,000 deliveries in Q4 potentially. It's all ready and set and October 1st they start all lines on 100% with the new designs of X and S.
     
  7. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    While this is very plausible - at the very least electronics of the S should be upgraded with the X release to the new chipsets/parts - I don't see Q4 numbers depending on a S facelift. They have a healthy backlog on X with 20k+ preorders and S as well (2-3 months?) so Q4 delivery numbers are absolutely not related to demand. They will be driven by the X ramp and X slowing down S production or not.
     
  8. 32no

    32no Member

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    #8 32no, Sep 5, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2015
    Sorry, but Inside EVs has a low estimate for the August month (1300) in North America because supposedly, the outage caused by the crane lasted from the 14th to the 17th, 4 days of production at slightly over 200 cars per day.

    Link: http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
     
  9. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    Except that August 14th was a Friday and it was already back up on Sunday Aug 16. So a loss of a Friday and a Saturday at most because I don't think they work on Sunday anyway.
     
  10. Perfectlogic

    Perfectlogic Member

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    Remember that if Q3 guidance is met then Q4 would need 17k deliveries just to meet the low end of yearly guidance.
     
  11. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    What's with the "facelifted" Model S?
     
  12. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    So As Mike was saying, Bonnie reported on the 16th (Sunday) that power was back on. Last time we heard they were only doing 5 day work weeks, but Bonnie said in a post there are some Saturdays when she can see the parking lot full. I would suspect that's mostly the end of quarter rush period, but regardless, we are talking 200-400 cars max, and Tesla did communicate that they think they can make up for that during the next few weeks (I recall a spokesperson saying that, but too lazy to google it now). So no, I do not expect any significant impact, but we will know for sure in little less then a month.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Just some (logical) speculation, that Tesla would update the S a bit with the X release. No evidence yet, and frankly I'd give an external facelift only 30% chance, but internally, "under the hood", I'd give it 80%. It is widely expected that the X will use a newer Nvidia chipset, LTE cellular capabilities, etc. and it would be logical for Tesla to update the S with those - I am pretty sure they do not want to stock more than 1 version of these electronics, plus higher volume means better prices.
     
  13. Newb

    Newb Member

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    #13 Newb, Sep 6, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2015
    Yep. I reckon we might end up with a small miss at year end (~500-1,000 cars) if Q3 is just met. But if that speculation about the S facelift has some truth to it, then it's logical that they would shift deliveries to Europe of orders from late August/September to December, in order to maximise the share of facelifted Model S's in Q4. DaveT rightly hinted to the fact that it's one of the bigger jumps we've seen so far in wait times, as shown on the websites. And there's many reasons for Tesla to suprise us with a sudden upgrade for all existing orders to the "new" Model S. One of those is not to frustrate customers who have just ordered who'd otherwise get the "old" S right after the "new" S has been announced. Another would be, as mrdoubleb mentioned, to have a coherent set of equipment in the factory for both cars of the same platform, and so on.

    As to the demand topic, I don't think there's any demand problems for Tesla. There might be some peak demand for Model S at around 50,000 cars per year though, simply due to market segment size.
     
  14. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    Remember that Tesla is constantly updating the Model S. I'm not going to bother to find the link, but I recall we were told that there are something like 20 engineering change orders per week typically. Tesla is shipping an LTE retrofit package, so I'm assuming that all new Model Ss already ship with LTE. Many of the improvements are more subtle: my after-market stereo installer pointed out several places where Tesla has added or improved tabs that hold the dashboard and trim pieces in place. And of course there are all sorts of goodies that are available now that weren't there a few years ago: parking sensors, driver assist, heated rear seats & wipers, and a 90kWh battery, to name a few.

    This continual reworking must drive the guys on the line crazy; there's a reason why big automakers make changes on an annual basis. The policy reflects a deep commitment to make each car as good as Tesla can (within the budget, of course), which I find commendable.
     
  15. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    Indeed, however every once in a while they make a big change and announce the feature instead of just sneaking it in without much fanfare. Think D event, 90kwh battery announcement, Ludicrous, etc. The speculation is, that at the X reveal (which is believed to be a Founder delivery event on the 29th, hopefully with live streaming), Tesla will announce another bigger revision of the S, possibly including some external facelift too. I think this may have started from the guessing around whether the X will have a new nosecone design and whether the S would get that immediately as well to update the "family look". In any case, this is not entirely impossible... but I would not bet the house on it.
     
  16. Lessmog

    Lessmog Member

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    To me, the thinking on an imminent facelift of S in line with the reveal of X seems to be logical and supported by increased wait times as reported.

    The first thing that occurs to me is new headlights, probably LED. A few pictures surfaced three or four months ago, and also the X spotted in the wild appear to have the headlights masked into slits - just where those LEDs would be, I imagine.

    What I REALLY REALLY want to see is a headlight cleaner! That would allow more powerful illumination than currently permitted in Europe, 2000 lumen iirc, and we Nordics have a need for that, what with all the M00se you know.

    Well, as long as we are all fantasising here ... :cool:
     
  17. 32no

    32no Member

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    Ok, you're right. :smile:

    Facelifting the Model S at this time makes no sense to me for multiple reasons. First of all, there is no need to introduce new supplier products in the Model S during a "significantly-ramping-up" quarter, as it could cause delays as suppliers can't always ramp fast enough (remember the center console supplier issues? Next gen seats supplier issues?). Second, it adds unnecessary changes in the production process again, during a "significantly-ramping-up" quarter, which could slow down production (remember when Tesla reduced the number of options, supposedly to increase production efficiency? Introducing new options or new standard features would for sure dent efficiency). Third, the timing makes no sense. If Tesla wants to de-risk their guidance target, Tesla would have launched the "face lifted Model S" (whatever that entails, even small but desirable changes like LED headlights) before the Model X launch, therefore ensuring they get as many Model S orders as possible, and this would have been in line with their philosophy of anti-selling the Model X while selling the Model S until the Model X launches.
     
  18. Lessmog

    Lessmog Member

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    We will see in a few weeks. So far, we are all fantasising. :wink:
    But if X turns out to have new lights, for example, why wouldn't the same fit in S? That would actually reduce the number of different parts in production. It could also become an attractive upgrade for S owners; like the 3G to LTE has.
     
  19. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Europe should be 4,000+ Tesla Model S deliveries in Q3 2015, I think.
     
  20. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    Ah, here is the thread! Would be nice to have a poll, too, but I guess we cannot add that now any more to this thread.

    We had almost 4000 sales in Q2 already. Jul+Aug were about 25% up from Apr+May, while California seems about flat (see my post in the short term thread).
    So my guess would be we should be something like 10% up from Q2, to be conservative I´ll say 4300 for Europe and 12,300 worldwide for Q3.
     

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