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2015 Q4 discussion thread for delivery numbers

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by FredTMC, Oct 23, 2015.

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  1. pGo

    pGo Member

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    There is one. In the same file.

    I see that average VIN assignment has been following lately:

    Weekly avg VIN assignment: 9/28 - 10/22: 1063
    Weekly avg VIN assignment: 9/1 - 10/22: 1193
    Weekly avg VIN assignment: 8/24 - 10/22: 1143
    Weekly avg VIN assignment: 8/17 - 10/22: 1202

    I have put VINs based on the dates assigned and then averaged out on a weekly bases. So, with this method you are looking at 1200/week VIN assignments. Not sure how this will look for the next month, but that's something important I consider.

    Also, keep in mind that not all VINs assigned are to be delivered in Q4.

    At 1200/week for 12.5 weeks, you are looking at 15000 cars production. Take this with a grain of salt as VIN assignment may not go along with production output though in the long run, you may be able to find a match.
     
  2. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    Had the same idea... Was going to make this nicer (all data points in 1 plot), but since you asked ;). Can´t help myself, but looks like the slope changed around the time Elon instagrammed on bringing up line 2... Disclaimer: others trying to draw too many conclusions from VINs have failed earlier, so don´t base your trading on this.

    Screen shot 2015-10-31 at 12.20.09 AM.png
     
  3. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    #43 FredTMC, Oct 30, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2015

    PGo,

    nice data sets. Thanks for doing this MS VIN analysis. BTW. There are two new VINs assigned for 10/26. They are like 114606 range.

    Tesla has told us that MX ramp will go slow at first and then ramp faster than what MS did. Elon mentioned exiting 2015 at 800/week for MX. And I recall that they are supposed to edit 2015 at 1600 cars/week produced.

    Bottomline is I don't expect production to stay at 1200/week throughout Q4. I expect it to ramp (mix of MS and MX) from 1200 to something higher. Will they hit 1600/week in Dec? I guess we will find out. So, it seems reasonable they'll produce more than 15k in Q4 if they ramp as they said they would.
     
  4. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    #44 hobbes, Nov 1, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2015
    O.k., completed plotting the VINs. Disclaimer as before: This is only VIN data, Tesla could be skipping VINs which would lead us to overestimate cars produced/delivered by an unknown amount. I used the data from the Model S Order Delivery - Google Sheets (thanks for everybody submitting their data!), removing all data sets which had not at least a complete VIN and the VIN assignment date. Anyone could have entered wrong data there. Don´t base your investment decisions this. Also note that not all data sets used have all three dates (VIN assignment, production complete, and delivered).

    Interesting feature from the long term plot (bottom) is that around April 2015 production times seem to have decreased significantly. Also, the slope of the data has been much more constant than I would have expected.

    Screen shot 2015-11-01 at 9.03.32 PM.png
    Screen shot 2015-11-01 at 9.05.40 PM.png
     
  5. doctoxics

    doctoxics Member

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    #45 doctoxics, Nov 1, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2015
    Pretty and very powerful. Thanks for the effort. Nice pick-up on the recent reduction in time from assignment of VINs to finish of production. Looks like about 12,000 Model Ss projected to be delivered in Q4, although the recent uptick in VINs may suggest a higher number.
     
  6. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    #46 Benz, Nov 2, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2015
    Annual total Tesla Model S deliveries

    2013: 22,477
    2014: 31,655
    2015: ?

    In 2014 Tesla Motors realised an increase of almost 41% compared to 2013.
    To get to an increase of 45% in 2015 (compared to 2014) Tesla Motors will have to realise 45,900 Tesla Model S deliveries.
    To get to an increase of 50% in 2015 (compared to 2014) Tesla Motors will have to realise 47,483 Tesla Model S deliveries.

    Which increase % is most likely to occur in 2015 (compared to 2014), 45% or 50%?
     
  7. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    Well, to get to the minimum of their already revised 2015 target of 50-55k, they need an increase of 58%. I certainly hope this increase is the most likely to occur. :tongue:
     
  8. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    I can see 50%, so total deliveries in the region of 47-48k. To get any more than that Tesla will have to prioritise west coast customers and get a significant number of Xs delivered, that last one looks unfortunately increasingly unlikely.
     
  9. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    My post starts with: "Annual total Tesla Model S deliveries".

    I have excluded Tesla Model X deliveries (as there will not be that many this year anyway).

    So the focus is primarily on Tesla Model S deliveries.

    My post was not about the guidence of 50,000 - 55,000 annual deliveries (which is a total of both S and X).
     
  10. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    I have excluded Model X deliveries as well. I always read 50k as the worst case scenario if X is delayed. So 50-55k meant 50 S and as many X as we can, but 5k max. At least that was how I read it.

    Guess we will be smarter in about 26 hours.
     
  11. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    It's positive that you are hoping for at least 50,000 Tesla Model S deliveries in 2015. Then that would indeed be an increase of 58% (compared to 2014). But for that to happen, Tesla Model S deliveries need to increase to almost 17,000 in Q4 2015. And that's not very likely, I think. But I hope that I am wrong about that. Tomorrow we will know more about this.

    Cheers
     
  12. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    i read it similar. Except I see that 50K includes some MX deliveries. I ran an estimate with 500 MX for example.
    It now looks like tesla may deliver upwards of the majority of the sigs. Something like 1500. I like that's what Morgan Stanley is estimating on their middle-of-road estimate.

    Do agree that if the scheduled late Q4 ramp goes as planned, then 55k was what is possible. 55k is the high end of the achievable targeted range.
     
  13. Gerasimental

    Gerasimental Member

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    Could you give some clarification for the highlighted section? I was too busy and gave up trying to follow all the delivery estimates, VIN assignments, in-production e-mails etc. that were posted, and they seemed to be giving a very opaque image anyway. Is there any stronger, more consistent data suggesting what you claim above? Thanks.
     
  14. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    From what I've read on TMC, majority of sig owners are expecting delivery by year end. For any sig owners taking delivery outside the U.S. I can believe these cars wouldn't be delivered till next year due to ocean transit time.
     
  15. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    Guidance was for deliveries. A late Q4 ramp will not get cars to customers in time IMO.
     
  16. tentonine

    tentonine Member

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    I've seen three reports of sigs not being delivered until January in the US, along with one in 'late December to mid-January'. I haven't seen a sig VIN higher than 7xx. So I think 500 might be a good estimate, but it would surprise me if it is much more than that.
     
  17. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    Feeling the same here; I'm not even certain that they have the capacity to deliver that many cars right now.
     
  18. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    But a late Q4 ramp was always the plan (per last Earnings call). It's certainly the case that final cars produced at year end are cars to be picked up at Fremont and bay area
     
  19. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    It would be fantastic if they indeed could deliver those 1,500 Tesla Model X SUVs in November/December 2015. Let's hope that they will be able to do that. But then they still would have to be able to deliver about 15,500 Tesla Model S sedans as well. I don't want to spoil the party but I think that it's a big jump from 11,580 to 17,000 in just one quarter, to be honest.
     
  20. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    Not disagreeing with you, but those would have to be Model Ss; the X Sigs are spread around the country.
     

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