2015 Sales: Model S vs Large Luxury Cars

[RobStark]

Tesla does not break down sales by country or region. But estimates for Model S US sales range from 24,200 to 26,400. Even taking the lowest number it beats the ICE large luxury car sales leader the Mercedes S Class.

Model S sales up about a third y-o-y. Everybody else down.

Large Luxury Car	December 2015	December 2014	% Change	2015 ▴	2014	% Change
Mercedes-Benz S-Class​	2163​	2832	-23.6%	21,934	25,276	-13.2%
BMW 7-Series​	1266​	1096	15.5%	9292	9744	-4.6%
BMW 6-Series *​	1461​	890	64.2%	8146	8647	-5.8%
Audi A7 *​	841​	524	60.5%	7721	8133	-5.1%
Lexus LS​	854​	1020	-16.3%	7165	8559	-16.3%
Mercedes-Benz CLS-Class *​	581 ​	575	1.0%	6152	6981	-11.9%
Audi A8​	424​	732	-42.1%	4990	5904	-15.5%
Porsche Panamera​	256​	320	-20.0%	4985	5740	-13.2%
Jaguar XJ​	207​	375	-44.8%	3611	4329	-16.6%
---​	---​	---	---	---	---	---
Total​	8053​	8364	-3.7%	73,996	83,313	-11.2%

America - December 2015 And 2015 Year End - GOOD CAR BAD CAR

 

[Johann Koeber]

Interesting:

In this table all 2015 (yearly) numbers are lower than 2014.

Only one exception: Tesla up al lot!

I wonder what the managers of other auto companies are thinking. They are most certainly not thrilled.

 

[RobStark]

I wonder what the managers of other auto companies are thinking.

Not scalable to the mass market.

Denial is a powerful thing when people don't want to see what is right in front of them.

 

[Cattledog]

Not scalable to the mass market.

Denial is a powerful thing when people don't want to see what is right in front of them.

Tesla was up about 17,000 sales worldwide 2015 compared to 2014 - I'm not sure what our estimate would be for increase in US sales. If you say 1/3, that's a 6,000 to 7,000 increase in the US. Other manufacturers are down over 9,000 in that year. I'd say 'correlation'.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Interesting:

In this table all 2015 (yearly) numbers are lower than 2014.

Only one exception: Tesla up al lot!

I wonder what the managers of other auto companies are thinking. They are most certainly not thrilled.

Need to see sales of large luxury SUVs for context.

 

[RobStark]

Need to see sales of large luxury SUVs for context.

The shift is more to what the industry would say is mid-size CUVs and SUVs.

I don't think there are a lot of 7 Series and Panamera buyers switching to Escalades.

More likely shift is to X5s and Cayenne.

And part of the context is no Model X(save for 208 units) in 2015.

Overall midsize luxury utility vehicles are up 10% and large luxury utility vehicles are up 15%.

Model S is up ~33%

Midsize Luxury SUV	December 2015	December 2014	% Change	2015 ▴	2014	% Change
Lexus RX​	11,899 ​	13,625	-12.7%	100,610	107,490	-6.4%
Cadillac SRX​	7031 ​	4899	43.5%	68,850	53,578	28.5%
Acura MDX​	6254 ​	6761	-7.5%	58,208	65,603	-11.3%
BMW X5​	6250 ​	6098	2.5%	54,997	47,031	16.9%
Infiniti QX60​	4987 ​	3367	48.1%	41,770	31,192	33.9%
Mercedes-Benz M-Class​	330 ​	5625	-94.1%	32,550	46,726	-30.3%
Lexus GX460​	3118 ​	2707	15.2%	25,212	22,685	11.1%
Lincoln MKX​	2960 ​	1669	77.4%	22,199	23,995	-7.5%
Land Rover Range Rover Sport​	2246 ​	2036	10.3%	21,459	17,897	19.9%
Mercedes-Benz GLE-Class​	6310 ​	---	---	20,663	---	---
Audi Q7​	1189 ​	1928	-38.3%	18,995	18,517	2.6%
Porsche Cayenne​	1230 ​	934	31.7%	16,474	16,205	1.7%
Volvo XC90​	3135 ​	68	4510%	12,777	3952	223%
Land Rover LR4​	1315 ​	736	78.7%	9031	4679	93.0%
BMW X6​	1547 ​	458	238%	7906	3896	103%
Volkswagen Touareg *​	486 ​	605	-19.7%	7037	6961	1.1%
Infiniti QX70​	697 ​	448	55.6%	5737	5213	10.1%
Volvo XC70 *​	432 ​	470	-8.1%	5118	5093	0.5%
Lincoln MKT​	406 ​	356	14.0%	4696	4800	-2.2%
Acura ZDX​	--- ​	2	-100%	2	78	-97.4%
---​	---​	---	---	---	---	---
Total​	61,822​	52,792	17.1%	534,291	485,591	10.3%

Large Luxury SUV	December 2015	December 2014	% Change	2015 ▴	2014	% Change
Cadillac Escalade & Escalade ESV/EXT​	4659 ​	3740	24.6%	35,923	30,522	17.7%
Mercedes-Benz GL-Class​	2849 ​	3394	-16.1%	27,707	26,597	4.2%
Land Rover Range Rover​	1835 ​	1482	23.8%	17,821	12,830	38.9%
Infiniti QX80​	2171 ​	1615	34.4%	15,646	12,935	21.0%
Lincoln Navigator​	1250 ​	1792	-30.2%	11,964	10,433	14.7%
Lexus LX570​	892 ​	505	76.6%	3884	4052	-4.1%
Mercedes-Benz G-Class​	541 ​	375	44.3%	3616	3090	17.0%
Toyota Land Cruiser​	350 ​	365	-4.1%	2687	3158	-14.9%
---​	---​	---	---	---	---	---
Total​	14,547​	13,268	9.6%	119,248	103,617	15.1%

​

 

[Spidy]

Interesting:

In this table all 2015 (yearly) numbers are lower than 2014.

Only one exception: Tesla up al lot!

I wonder what the managers of other auto companies are thinking. They are most certainly not thrilled.

The year to year numbers always heavily depend on the introduction of new models and facelifts. For example new Mercedes S-Class came out mid 2013. Resulted in big sales numbers in 2014 and then it usually slows down a bit. If you had looked at this 1 year ago and tried to make the same claim you would have a hard time explaining why Mercedes S-Class sales are up 75%

 

[Fallenone]

But we're not looking at only one specific model are we? The overall sales of other companies large luxury cars were down in 2015 and is quite clear that share was mostly grabbed by Model S.

The year to year numbers always heavily depend on the introduction of new models and facelifts. For example new Mercedes S-Class came out mid 2013. Resulted in big sales numbers in 2014 and then it usually slows down a bit. If you had looked at this 1 year ago and tried to make the same claim you would have a hard time explaining why Mercedes S-Class sales are up 75%

 

[SebastianR]

The year to year numbers always heavily depend on the introduction of new models and facelifts. For example new Mercedes S-Class came out mid 2013. Resulted in big sales numbers in 2014 and then it usually slows down a bit. If you had looked at this 1 year ago and tried to make the same claim you would have a hard time explaining why Mercedes S-Class sales are up 75%

I know. That's how people explain really bad sales of the 7-Series BMW in early 2015. However, by the same logic the fact is that the "ageing" Model S should not sell well at all. Yet we see YoY growth of the Model S (and not insignificantly).

Then we should all remember that cognitively for the non-enthusiasts, a Model S purchase is is very "risky" in comparison to an Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Porsche (it is a lot of money, nobody will question you buying a BMW, everyone will ask "why a Tesla?", "what is a Tesla?", "how does it work?", "It can't be as good as an ICE" etc. etc.). There used to be a saying in the IT world that "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM" and I think that's applicable to the big German car makers today. Despite this, Tesla is growing like crazy.

So this, together with the fact that the overall market (except Model S) seemed down this year should give a lot of thought to decision makers on the German side. But it doubt it will. I think right now, all the Germans are focused on is how to save the Diesel and prevent the enforcement of the already very weak EU Diesel regulations...

 

[bh1783]

I know. That's how people explain really bad sales of the 7-Series BMW in early 2015. However, by the same logic the fact is that the "ageing" Model S should not sell well at all. Yet we see YoY growth of the Model S (and not insignificantly).

Then we should all remember that cognitively for the non-enthusiasts, a Model S purchase is is very "risky" in comparison to an Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Porsche (it is a lot of money, nobody will question you buying a BMW, everyone will ask "why a Tesla?", "what is a Tesla?", "how does it work?", "It can't be as good as an ICE" etc. etc.). There used to be a saying in the IT world that "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM" and I think that's applicable to the big German car makers today. Despite this, Tesla is growing like crazy.

So this, together with the fact that the overall market (except Model S) seemed down this year should give a lot of thought to decision makers on the German side. But it doubt it will. I think right now, all the Germans are focused on is how to save the Diesel and prevent the enforcement of the already very weak EU Diesel regulations...

A good comparison to see correlation would be to look at large luxury car sales in markets where Tesla has no presence. There are a lot of markets with big demand for large luxury cars that Tesla is absent from. Places like Korea, Russia, the Middle East.
In places like Korea, large luxury cars have been growing a lot. Without Tesla, Mercedes sold over 10k S-Classes in Korea alone in 2015(3rd largest market in the world).

 

[mspohr]

Need to see sales of large luxury SUVs for context.

Model X should eat into those sales in 2016.