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2015 Sales: Model S vs Large Luxury Cars

Discussion in 'Tesla Motors' started by RobStark, Jan 13, 2016.

  1. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    Tesla does not break down sales by country or region. But estimates for Model S US sales range from 24,200 to 26,400. Even taking the lowest number it beats the ICE large luxury car sales leader the Mercedes S Class.

    Model S sales up about a third y-o-y. Everybody else down.


    [TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]Large Luxury Car[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December
    2015[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December
    2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]%
    Change[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric sorttable_sorted_reverse"]2015
    ▴[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]%
    Change
    [/TH]
    2163
    2832-23.6%21,93425,276-13.2%
    1266
    109615.5%92929744-4.6%
    1461
    89064.2%81468647-5.8%
    Audi A7 *
    841
    52460.5%77218133-5.1%
    854
    1020-16.3%71658559-16.3%
    581
    5751.0%61526981-11.9%
    424
    732-42.1%49905904-15.5%
    256
    320-20.0%49855740-13.2%
    207
    375-44.8%36114329-16.6%
    ---
    ---
    ---------------
    Total
    8053
    8364-3.7%73,99683,313-11.2%

    America - December 2015 And 2015 Year End - GOOD CAR BAD CAR
     
    • Like x 1
  2. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Member

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    Interesting:

    In this table all 2015 (yearly) numbers are lower than 2014.

    Only one exception: Tesla up al lot!

    I wonder what the managers of other auto companies are thinking. They are most certainly not thrilled. ;)
     
  3. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    Not scalable to the mass market.

    Denial is a powerful thing when people don't want to see what is right in front of them.
     
  4. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    Tesla was up about 17,000 sales worldwide 2015 compared to 2014 - I'm not sure what our estimate would be for increase in US sales. If you say 1/3, that's a 6,000 to 7,000 increase in the US. Other manufacturers are down over 9,000 in that year. I'd say 'correlation'.
     
  5. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    Need to see sales of large luxury SUVs for context.
     
  6. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    The shift is more to what the industry would say is mid-size CUVs and SUVs.

    I don't think there are a lot of 7 Series and Panamera buyers switching to Escalades.

    More likely shift is to X5s and Cayenne.

    And part of the context is no Model X(save for 208 units) in 2015.

    Overall midsize luxury utility vehicles are up 10% and large luxury utility vehicles are up 15%.

    Model S is up ~33%



    [TH="class: sorttable_alpha"]Midsize Luxury SUV[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December
    2015[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December
    2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]%
    Change[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric sorttable_sorted_reverse"]2015
    ▴[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]%
    Change
    [/TH]
    11,899
    13,625-12.7%100,610107,490-6.4%
    7031
    489943.5%68,85053,57828.5%
    6254
    6761-7.5%58,20865,603-11.3%
    6250
    60982.5%54,99747,03116.9%
    4987
    336748.1%41,77031,19233.9%
    330
    5625-94.1%32,55046,726-30.3%
    3118
    270715.2%25,21222,68511.1%
    2960
    166977.4%22,19923,995-7.5%
    2246
    203610.3%21,45917,89719.9%
    6310
    ------20,663------
    1189
    1928-38.3%18,99518,5172.6%
    1230
    93431.7%16,47416,2051.7%
    3135
    684510%12,7773952223%
    1315
    73678.7%9031467993.0%
    1547
    458238%79063896103%
    486
    605-19.7%703769611.1%
    697
    44855.6%5737521310.1%
    432
    470-8.1%511850930.5%
    406
    35614.0%46964800-2.2%
    ---
    2-100%278-97.4%
    ---
    ---
    ---------------
    Total
    61,822
    52,79217.1%534,291485,59110.3%

    [TH="class: sorttable_alpha"]Large Luxury SUV[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December
    2015[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December
    2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]%
    Change[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric sorttable_sorted_reverse"]2015
    ▴[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]%
    Change
    [/TH]
    4659
    374024.6%35,92330,52217.7%
    2849
    3394-16.1%27,70726,5974.2%
    1835
    148223.8%17,82112,83038.9%
    2171
    161534.4%15,64612,93521.0%
    1250
    1792-30.2%11,96410,43314.7%
    892
    50576.6%38844052-4.1%
    541
    37544.3%3616309017.0%
    350
    365-4.1%26873158-14.9%
    ---
    ---
    ---------------
    Total
    14,547
    13,2689.6%119,248103,61715.1%







     
  7. Spidy

    Spidy Member

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    The year to year numbers always heavily depend on the introduction of new models and facelifts. For example new Mercedes S-Class came out mid 2013. Resulted in big sales numbers in 2014 and then it usually slows down a bit. If you had looked at this 1 year ago and tried to make the same claim you would have a hard time explaining why Mercedes S-Class sales are up 75%
     
  8. Fallenone

    Fallenone Active Member

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    But we're not looking at only one specific model are we? The overall sales of other companies large luxury cars were down in 2015 and is quite clear that share was mostly grabbed by Model S.

     
  9. SebastianR

    SebastianR Member

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    I know. That's how people explain really bad sales of the 7-Series BMW in early 2015. However, by the same logic the fact is that the "ageing" Model S should not sell well at all. Yet we see YoY growth of the Model S (and not insignificantly).

    Then we should all remember that cognitively for the non-enthusiasts, a Model S purchase is is very "risky" in comparison to an Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Porsche (it is a lot of money, nobody will question you buying a BMW, everyone will ask "why a Tesla?", "what is a Tesla?", "how does it work?", "It can't be as good as an ICE" etc. etc.). There used to be a saying in the IT world that "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM" and I think that's applicable to the big German car makers today. Despite this, Tesla is growing like crazy.

    So this, together with the fact that the overall market (except Model S) seemed down this year should give a lot of thought to decision makers on the German side. But it doubt it will. I think right now, all the Germans are focused on is how to save the Diesel and prevent the enforcement of the already very weak EU Diesel regulations...
     
  10. bh1783

    bh1783 Member

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    A good comparison to see correlation would be to look at large luxury car sales in markets where Tesla has no presence. There are a lot of markets with big demand for large luxury cars that Tesla is absent from. Places like Korea, Russia, the Middle East.
    In places like Korea, large luxury cars have been growing a lot. Without Tesla, Mercedes sold over 10k S-Classes in Korea alone in 2015(3rd largest market in the world).
     
  11. mspohr

    mspohr Active Member

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    Model X should eat into those sales in 2016.
     

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