Tesla does not break down sales by country or region. But estimates for Model S US sales range from 24,200 to 26,400. Even taking the lowest number it beats the ICE large luxury car sales leader the Mercedes S Class. Model S sales up about a third y-o-y. Everybody else down. [TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]Large Luxury Car[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December 2015[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December 2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]% Change[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric sorttable_sorted_reverse"]2015 ▴[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]% Change[/TH]Mercedes-Benz S-Class21632832-23.6%21,93425,276-13.2%BMW 7-Series1266109615.5%92929744-4.6%BMW 6-Series *146189064.2%81468647-5.8%Audi A7 *84152460.5%77218133-5.1%Lexus LS8541020-16.3%71658559-16.3%Mercedes-Benz CLS-Class *581 5751.0%61526981-11.9%Audi A8424732-42.1%49905904-15.5%Porsche Panamera256320-20.0%49855740-13.2%Jaguar XJ207375-44.8%36114329-16.6%---------------------Total80538364-3.7%73,99683,313-11.2% America - December 2015 And 2015 Year End - GOOD CAR BAD CAR
Interesting: In this table all 2015 (yearly) numbers are lower than 2014. Only one exception: Tesla up al lot! I wonder what the managers of other auto companies are thinking. They are most certainly not thrilled.
Not scalable to the mass market. Denial is a powerful thing when people don't want to see what is right in front of them.
Tesla was up about 17,000 sales worldwide 2015 compared to 2014 - I'm not sure what our estimate would be for increase in US sales. If you say 1/3, that's a 6,000 to 7,000 increase in the US. Other manufacturers are down over 9,000 in that year. I'd say 'correlation'.
The shift is more to what the industry would say is mid-size CUVs and SUVs. I don't think there are a lot of 7 Series and Panamera buyers switching to Escalades. More likely shift is to X5s and Cayenne. And part of the context is no Model X(save for 208 units) in 2015. Overall midsize luxury utility vehicles are up 10% and large luxury utility vehicles are up 15%. Model S is up ~33% [TH="class: sorttable_alpha"]Midsize Luxury SUV[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December 2015[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December 2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]% Change[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric sorttable_sorted_reverse"]2015 ▴[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]% Change[/TH]Lexus RX11,899 13,625-12.7%100,610107,490-6.4%Cadillac SRX7031 489943.5%68,85053,57828.5%Acura MDX6254 6761-7.5%58,20865,603-11.3%BMW X56250 60982.5%54,99747,03116.9%Infiniti QX604987 336748.1%41,77031,19233.9%Mercedes-Benz M-Class330 5625-94.1%32,55046,726-30.3%Lexus GX4603118 270715.2%25,21222,68511.1%Lincoln MKX2960 166977.4%22,19923,995-7.5%Land Rover Range Rover Sport2246 203610.3%21,45917,89719.9%Mercedes-Benz GLE-Class6310 ------20,663------Audi Q71189 1928-38.3%18,99518,5172.6%Porsche Cayenne1230 93431.7%16,47416,2051.7%Volvo XC903135 684510%12,7773952223%Land Rover LR41315 73678.7%9031467993.0%BMW X61547 458238%79063896103%Volkswagen Touareg *486 605-19.7%703769611.1%Infiniti QX70697 44855.6%5737521310.1%Volvo XC70 *432 470-8.1%511850930.5%Lincoln MKT406 35614.0%46964800-2.2%Acura ZDX--- 2-100%278-97.4%---------------------Total61,82252,79217.1%534,291485,59110.3% [TH="class: sorttable_alpha"]Large Luxury SUV[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December 2015[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December 2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]% Change[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric sorttable_sorted_reverse"]2015 ▴[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]% Change[/TH]Cadillac Escalade & Escalade ESV/EXT4659 374024.6%35,92330,52217.7%Mercedes-Benz GL-Class2849 3394-16.1%27,70726,5974.2%Land Rover Range Rover1835 148223.8%17,82112,83038.9%Infiniti QX802171 161534.4%15,64612,93521.0%Lincoln Navigator1250 1792-30.2%11,96410,43314.7%Lexus LX570892 50576.6%38844052-4.1%Mercedes-Benz G-Class541 37544.3%3616309017.0%Toyota Land Cruiser350 365-4.1%26873158-14.9%---------------------Total14,54713,2689.6%119,248103,61715.1%
The year to year numbers always heavily depend on the introduction of new models and facelifts. For example new Mercedes S-Class came out mid 2013. Resulted in big sales numbers in 2014 and then it usually slows down a bit. If you had looked at this 1 year ago and tried to make the same claim you would have a hard time explaining why Mercedes S-Class sales are up 75%
But we're not looking at only one specific model are we? The overall sales of other companies large luxury cars were down in 2015 and is quite clear that share was mostly grabbed by Model S.
I know. That's how people explain really bad sales of the 7-Series BMW in early 2015. However, by the same logic the fact is that the "ageing" Model S should not sell well at all. Yet we see YoY growth of the Model S (and not insignificantly). Then we should all remember that cognitively for the non-enthusiasts, a Model S purchase is is very "risky" in comparison to an Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Porsche (it is a lot of money, nobody will question you buying a BMW, everyone will ask "why a Tesla?", "what is a Tesla?", "how does it work?", "It can't be as good as an ICE" etc. etc.). There used to be a saying in the IT world that "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM" and I think that's applicable to the big German car makers today. Despite this, Tesla is growing like crazy. So this, together with the fact that the overall market (except Model S) seemed down this year should give a lot of thought to decision makers on the German side. But it doubt it will. I think right now, all the Germans are focused on is how to save the Diesel and prevent the enforcement of the already very weak EU Diesel regulations...
A good comparison to see correlation would be to look at large luxury car sales in markets where Tesla has no presence. There are a lot of markets with big demand for large luxury cars that Tesla is absent from. Places like Korea, Russia, the Middle East. In places like Korea, large luxury cars have been growing a lot. Without Tesla, Mercedes sold over 10k S-Classes in Korea alone in 2015(3rd largest market in the world).
