2015 Sales: Model S vs Large Luxury Cars

RobStark · Jan 13, 2016

Tesla does not break down sales by country or region. But estimates for Model S US sales range from 24,200 to 26,400. Even taking the lowest number it beats the ICE large luxury car sales leader the Mercedes S Class.

Model S sales up about a third y-o-y. Everybody else down.

[TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]Large Luxury Car[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December
2015[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December
2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]%
Change[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric sorttable_sorted_reverse"]2015
▴[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]%
Change[/TH]

Mercedes-Benz S-Class
2163
2832 -23.6% 21,934 25,276 -13.2%
BMW 7-Series
1266
1096 15.5% 9292 9744 -4.6%
BMW 6-Series *
1461
890 64.2% 8146 8647 -5.8%
Audi A7 *
841
524 60.5% 7721 8133 -5.1%
Lexus LS
854
1020 -16.3% 7165 8559 -16.3%
Mercedes-Benz CLS-Class *
581

575 1.0% 6152 6981 -11.9%
Audi A8
424
732 -42.1% 4990 5904 -15.5%
Porsche Panamera
256
320 -20.0% 4985 5740 -13.2%
Jaguar XJ
207
375 -44.8% 3611 4329 -16.6%
---
---
--- --- --- --- ---
Total
8053
8364 -3.7% 73,996 83,313 -11.2%

America - December 2015 And 2015 Year End - GOOD CAR BAD CAR

Johann Koeber · Jan 13, 2016

Interesting:

In this table all 2015 (yearly) numbers are lower than 2014.

Only one exception: Tesla up al lot!

I wonder what the managers of other auto companies are thinking. They are most certainly not thrilled.

RobStark · Jan 13, 2016

Johann Koeber said: ↑

I wonder what the managers of other auto companies are thinking.
Click to expand...

Not scalable to the mass market.

Denial is a powerful thing when people don't want to see what is right in front of them.

Cattledog · Jan 13, 2016

RobStark said: ↑

Not scalable to the mass market.

Denial is a powerful thing when people don't want to see what is right in front of them.
Click to expand...

Tesla was up about 17,000 sales worldwide 2015 compared to 2014 - I'm not sure what our estimate would be for increase in US sales. If you say 1/3, that's a 6,000 to 7,000 increase in the US. Other manufacturers are down over 9,000 in that year. I'd say 'correlation'.

ItsNotAboutTheMoney · Jan 13, 2016

Johann Koeber said: ↑

Interesting:

In this table all 2015 (yearly) numbers are lower than 2014.

Only one exception: Tesla up al lot!

I wonder what the managers of other auto companies are thinking. They are most certainly not thrilled.
Click to expand...

Need to see sales of large luxury SUVs for context.

RobStark · Jan 13, 2016

ItsNotAboutTheMoney said: ↑

Need to see sales of large luxury SUVs for context.
Click to expand...

The shift is more to what the industry would say is mid-size CUVs and SUVs.

I don't think there are a lot of 7 Series and Panamera buyers switching to Escalades.

More likely shift is to X5s and Cayenne.

And part of the context is no Model X(save for 208 units) in 2015.

Overall midsize luxury utility vehicles are up 10% and large luxury utility vehicles are up 15%.

Model S is up ~33%

[TH="class: sorttable_alpha"]Midsize Luxury SUV[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December
2015[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December
2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]%
Change[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric sorttable_sorted_reverse"]2015
▴[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]%
Change[/TH]

Lexus RX
11,899

13,625 -12.7% 100,610 107,490 -6.4%
Cadillac SRX
7031

4899 43.5% 68,850 53,578 28.5%
Acura MDX
6254

6761 -7.5% 58,208 65,603 -11.3%
BMW X5
6250

6098 2.5% 54,997 47,031 16.9%
Infiniti QX60
4987

3367 48.1% 41,770 31,192 33.9%
Mercedes-Benz M-Class
330

5625 -94.1% 32,550 46,726 -30.3%
Lexus GX460
3118

2707 15.2% 25,212 22,685 11.1%
Lincoln MKX
2960

1669 77.4% 22,199 23,995 -7.5%
Land Rover
Range Rover Sport
2246

2036 10.3% 21,459 17,897 19.9%
Mercedes-Benz GLE-Class
6310

--- --- 20,663 --- ---
Audi Q7
1189

1928 -38.3% 18,995 18,517 2.6%
Porsche Cayenne
1230

934 31.7% 16,474 16,205 1.7%
Volvo XC90
3135

68 4510% 12,777 3952 223%
Land Rover LR4
1315

736 78.7% 9031 4679 93.0%
BMW X6
1547

458 238% 7906 3896 103%
Volkswagen Touareg *
486

605 -19.7% 7037 6961 1.1%
Infiniti QX70
697

448 55.6% 5737 5213 10.1%
Volvo XC70 *
432

470 -8.1% 5118 5093 0.5%
Lincoln MKT
406

356 14.0% 4696 4800 -2.2%
Acura ZDX
---

2 -100% 2 78 -97.4%
---
---
--- --- --- --- ---
Total
61,822
52,792 17.1% 534,291 485,591 10.3%

[TH="class: sorttable_alpha"]Large Luxury SUV[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December
2015[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]December
2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]%
Change[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric sorttable_sorted_reverse"]2015
▴[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]2014[/TH][TH="class: sorttable_numeric"]%
Change[/TH]

Cadillac Escalade
& Escalade ESV/EXT
4659

3740 24.6% 35,923 30,522 17.7%
Mercedes-Benz GL-Class
2849

3394 -16.1% 27,707 26,597 4.2%
Land Rover Range Rover
1835

1482 23.8% 17,821 12,830 38.9%
Infiniti QX80
2171

1615 34.4% 15,646 12,935 21.0%
Lincoln Navigator
1250

1792 -30.2% 11,964 10,433 14.7%
Lexus LX570
892

505 76.6% 3884 4052 -4.1%
Mercedes-Benz G-Class
541

375 44.3% 3616 3090 17.0%
Toyota Land Cruiser
350

365 -4.1% 2687 3158 -14.9%
---
---
--- --- --- --- ---
Total
14,547
13,268 9.6% 119,248 103,617 15.1%

Spidy · Jan 13, 2016

Johann Koeber said: ↑

Interesting:

In this table all 2015 (yearly) numbers are lower than 2014.

Only one exception: Tesla up al lot!

I wonder what the managers of other auto companies are thinking. They are most certainly not thrilled.
Click to expand...

The year to year numbers always heavily depend on the introduction of new models and facelifts. For example new Mercedes S-Class came out mid 2013. Resulted in big sales numbers in 2014 and then it usually slows down a bit. If you had looked at this 1 year ago and tried to make the same claim you would have a hard time explaining why Mercedes S-Class sales are up 75%

Fallenone · Jan 14, 2016

But we're not looking at only one specific model are we? The overall sales of other companies large luxury cars were down in 2015 and is quite clear that share was mostly grabbed by Model S.

Spidy said: ↑

The year to year numbers always heavily depend on the introduction of new models and facelifts. For example new Mercedes S-Class came out mid 2013. Resulted in big sales numbers in 2014 and then it usually slows down a bit. If you had looked at this 1 year ago and tried to make the same claim you would have a hard time explaining why Mercedes S-Class sales are up 75%
Click to expand...

SebastianR · Jan 14, 2016

Spidy said: ↑

The year to year numbers always heavily depend on the introduction of new models and facelifts. For example new Mercedes S-Class came out mid 2013. Resulted in big sales numbers in 2014 and then it usually slows down a bit. If you had looked at this 1 year ago and tried to make the same claim you would have a hard time explaining why Mercedes S-Class sales are up 75%
Click to expand...

I know. That's how people explain really bad sales of the 7-Series BMW in early 2015. However, by the same logic the fact is that the "ageing" Model S should not sell well at all. Yet we see YoY growth of the Model S (and not insignificantly).

Then we should all remember that cognitively for the non-enthusiasts, a Model S purchase is is very "risky" in comparison to an Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Porsche (it is a lot of money, nobody will question you buying a BMW, everyone will ask "why a Tesla?", "what is a Tesla?", "how does it work?", "It can't be as good as an ICE" etc. etc.). There used to be a saying in the IT world that "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM" and I think that's applicable to the big German car makers today. Despite this, Tesla is growing like crazy.

So this, together with the fact that the overall market (except Model S) seemed down this year should give a lot of thought to decision makers on the German side. But it doubt it will. I think right now, all the Germans are focused on is how to save the Diesel and prevent the enforcement of the already very weak EU Diesel regulations...

bh1783 · Jan 15, 2016

SebastianR said: ↑

I know. That's how people explain really bad sales of the 7-Series BMW in early 2015. However, by the same logic the fact is that the "ageing" Model S should not sell well at all. Yet we see YoY growth of the Model S (and not insignificantly).

Then we should all remember that cognitively for the non-enthusiasts, a Model S purchase is is very "risky" in comparison to an Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Porsche (it is a lot of money, nobody will question you buying a BMW, everyone will ask "why a Tesla?", "what is a Tesla?", "how does it work?", "It can't be as good as an ICE" etc. etc.). There used to be a saying in the IT world that "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM" and I think that's applicable to the big German car makers today. Despite this, Tesla is growing like crazy.

So this, together with the fact that the overall market (except Model S) seemed down this year should give a lot of thought to decision makers on the German side. But it doubt it will. I think right now, all the Germans are focused on is how to save the Diesel and prevent the enforcement of the already very weak EU Diesel regulations...
Click to expand...

A good comparison to see correlation would be to look at large luxury car sales in markets where Tesla has no presence. There are a lot of markets with big demand for large luxury cars that Tesla is absent from. Places like Korea, Russia, the Middle East.
In places like Korea, large luxury cars have been growing a lot. Without Tesla, Mercedes sold over 10k S-Classes in Korea alone in 2015(3rd largest market in the world).

mspohr · Jan 15, 2016

ItsNotAboutTheMoney said: ↑

Need to see sales of large luxury SUVs for context.
Click to expand...

Model X should eat into those sales in 2016.

2015 Sales: Model S vs Large Luxury Cars

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Mercedes-Benz S-Class	2163	2832	-23.6%	21,934	25,276	-13.2%
BMW 7-Series	1266	1096	15.5%	9292	9744	-4.6%
BMW 6-Series *	1461	890	64.2%	8146	8647	-5.8%
Audi A7 *	841	524	60.5%	7721	8133	-5.1%
Lexus LS	854	1020	-16.3%	7165	8559	-16.3%
Mercedes-Benz CLS-Class *	581	575	1.0%	6152	6981	-11.9%
Audi A8	424	732	-42.1%	4990	5904	-15.5%
Porsche Panamera	256	320	-20.0%	4985	5740	-13.2%
Jaguar XJ	207	375	-44.8%	3611	4329	-16.6%
---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Total	8053	8364	-3.7%	73,996	83,313	-11.2%

Lexus RX	11,899	13,625	-12.7%	100,610	107,490	-6.4%
Cadillac SRX	7031	4899	43.5%	68,850	53,578	28.5%
Acura MDX	6254	6761	-7.5%	58,208	65,603	-11.3%
BMW X5	6250	6098	2.5%	54,997	47,031	16.9%
Infiniti QX60	4987	3367	48.1%	41,770	31,192	33.9%
Mercedes-Benz M-Class	330	5625	-94.1%	32,550	46,726	-30.3%
Lexus GX460	3118	2707	15.2%	25,212	22,685	11.1%
Lincoln MKX	2960	1669	77.4%	22,199	23,995	-7.5%
Land Rover Range Rover Sport	2246	2036	10.3%	21,459	17,897	19.9%
Mercedes-Benz GLE-Class	6310	---	---	20,663	---	---
Audi Q7	1189	1928	-38.3%	18,995	18,517	2.6%
Porsche Cayenne	1230	934	31.7%	16,474	16,205	1.7%
Volvo XC90	3135	68	4510%	12,777	3952	223%
Land Rover LR4	1315	736	78.7%	9031	4679	93.0%
BMW X6	1547	458	238%	7906	3896	103%
Volkswagen Touareg *	486	605	-19.7%	7037	6961	1.1%
Infiniti QX70	697	448	55.6%	5737	5213	10.1%
Volvo XC70 *	432	470	-8.1%	5118	5093	0.5%
Lincoln MKT	406	356	14.0%	4696	4800	-2.2%
Acura ZDX	---	2	-100%	2	78	-97.4%
---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Total	61,822	52,792	17.1%	534,291	485,591	10.3%

Cadillac Escalade & Escalade ESV/EXT	4659	3740	24.6%	35,923	30,522	17.7%
Mercedes-Benz GL-Class	2849	3394	-16.1%	27,707	26,597	4.2%
Land Rover Range Rover	1835	1482	23.8%	17,821	12,830	38.9%
Infiniti QX80	2171	1615	34.4%	15,646	12,935	21.0%
Lincoln Navigator	1250	1792	-30.2%	11,964	10,433	14.7%
Lexus LX570	892	505	76.6%	3884	4052	-4.1%
Mercedes-Benz G-Class	541	375	44.3%	3616	3090	17.0%
Toyota Land Cruiser	350	365	-4.1%	2687	3158	-14.9%
---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Total	14,547	13,268	9.6%	119,248	103,617	15.1%

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2015 Sales: Model S vs Large Luxury Cars

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