From April 2 - July 2 I will be within the 36-39 month window for the buyback guarantee. At 50% of base + 43% of options that will be $48,652. The car has 38,600 miles now, isn't driven that much in in the first quarter but is a lot second quarter. So in June I expect to be close to the 45,000 mile limit before the buyback decreases for excess mileage.
Here are the considerations:
1) There seems to be conventional wisdom that the 90 batteries degrade faster. I've had 6.8% degradation in those 33 months/38.600 miles. That seems reasonable. Is there hard data that battery degradation continues in the 90's vs. leveling off like other Tesla batteries? I'm guessing that this conventional wisdom can't be good for resale value of 90's though.
2) Our car is pre-facelift, doesn't bother me but I'm guessing that's hit to resale value too.
3) In view of 1&2 above I suspect the private party or CPO value of my car may not be much if any more than the buyback guarantee during 2Q 2019.
4) We love the car and would replace with another Tesla. We plan to test drive a P3D, but we like the Model S hatchback versatility for skiing and we prefer the screen plus dashboard of the S to the 3's pedestal screen.
5) In terms of desired tech improvements, #1 priority would be v3 faster supercharging, which would require the 2170 battery and probably would include increased range also.
6) During the time we have owned our car I'm very pleased that our Autopilot 1 has worked better than AP2 which cost those buyers twice as much. But going forward AP2 will eventually get better, and once it progresses to true Level 3 hands off long distance freeway travel that's a feature we would value.
If we stick with our 2016 Model S it would probably be close to the remaining 5 years of drivetrain/battery warranty period. If the fast charging and Level 3 Autopilot are in widespread use within 2-3 years, I suspect resale on our car with ~75,000 miles would be terrible.
So what do people think?
Is an AP1 90D good enough for another 5 years?
If the new S with 2170 battery is announced by June, is that a clear signal to trade-in/upgrade?
Is it worth trading in anyway and wait another quarter or two for the S 2170 if not introduced by the time our buyback expires?
Or is it better to trade in for the P3D?
Here are the considerations:
1) There seems to be conventional wisdom that the 90 batteries degrade faster. I've had 6.8% degradation in those 33 months/38.600 miles. That seems reasonable. Is there hard data that battery degradation continues in the 90's vs. leveling off like other Tesla batteries? I'm guessing that this conventional wisdom can't be good for resale value of 90's though.
2) Our car is pre-facelift, doesn't bother me but I'm guessing that's hit to resale value too.
3) In view of 1&2 above I suspect the private party or CPO value of my car may not be much if any more than the buyback guarantee during 2Q 2019.
4) We love the car and would replace with another Tesla. We plan to test drive a P3D, but we like the Model S hatchback versatility for skiing and we prefer the screen plus dashboard of the S to the 3's pedestal screen.
5) In terms of desired tech improvements, #1 priority would be v3 faster supercharging, which would require the 2170 battery and probably would include increased range also.
6) During the time we have owned our car I'm very pleased that our Autopilot 1 has worked better than AP2 which cost those buyers twice as much. But going forward AP2 will eventually get better, and once it progresses to true Level 3 hands off long distance freeway travel that's a feature we would value.
If we stick with our 2016 Model S it would probably be close to the remaining 5 years of drivetrain/battery warranty period. If the fast charging and Level 3 Autopilot are in widespread use within 2-3 years, I suspect resale on our car with ~75,000 miles would be terrible.
So what do people think?
Is an AP1 90D good enough for another 5 years?
If the new S with 2170 battery is announced by June, is that a clear signal to trade-in/upgrade?
Is it worth trading in anyway and wait another quarter or two for the S 2170 if not introduced by the time our buyback expires?
Or is it better to trade in for the P3D?
