TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

2016 Third quarter results discussion

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by schonelucht, Sep 5, 2016.

Tags:
Thread Status:
The first post in this thread is a WikiPost, and can be edited by anyone with the appropriate permissions.
  1. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2013
    Messages:
    2,443
    Location:
    USA
    I don't think it is possible to derive a clean number. You can sign up for that web site mentioned above and figure out the quantities that they see - but inventory and CPO not posted to the web will never be tracked. CPO means cars have no defects. If a change order or CarFax element exists on a traded in MS, I think they can sell them as non-CPO or send to auction to move them.

    What the web site above does allow for is a general knowledge of the blocks of Vin #s that may make up inventory sets that are pre-assigned and built, many times ahead of paying customers who are paying full sticker price. Inventory may end up being discounted - but do add to the sales unit numbers. Important for unit-sales growth - even if discounting is done (due to age, mileage or selling agent incentive flexibility). The MX inventory looks like it was generally dropped $5,000 USD and others more if miles or more time were accumulated.
     
  2. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2016
    Messages:
    2,021
    Location:
    DC, DC
    Up to 161k now for the west coast
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  3. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2016
    Messages:
    2,021
    Location:
    DC, DC
    Up to 21,0XX MX VIN for Washington State delivery
     
    • Informative x 1
  4. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2014
    Messages:
    4,804
    Location:
    Nederland
    Indeed! I think 24k isn't the optimistic scenario anymore as I wrote in the thread starter. 25k now is, so we can add $20M to my earnings estimate.
     
    • Informative x 2
  5. cluster

    cluster Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2013
    Messages:
    80
    Location:
    Houston
    Anyone know how many Model S were produced in Q2 2016? I can find total production of 18345 units, but not the MS/MX split.
     
  6. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2013
    Messages:
    2,443
    Location:
    USA
    #26 bonaire, Sep 21, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2016
    MS Prod MX Prod
    Q4 13530 507
    Q1 12851 2659
    Q2 12145 6200

    MS Vins MX Vins
    Q3 14769 50
    Q4 13383 2000
    Q1 13019 5324
    Q2 13267 7655
    Q3 11325 9120

    Q3 Vins are roughly through 9/17
    MX Vin approximates:
    Q2 monthly 1826, 2025, 3804
    Q3 3775, 3000, 2345 (by 9/18)

    Q4 watching point: Will 5-seat and coil spring units be vinned and built through Q4 or in Q1 2017?

    All data is public where vin #s that were issued and shared publicly at the end of the month were tracked.
     
  7. cluster

    cluster Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2013
    Messages:
    80
    Location:
    Houston
    Thanks bonaire.
    What does the "MS Vins MX Vins" ? How did you estimate that?
     
  8. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2013
    Messages:
    2,443
    Location:
    USA
    #28 bonaire, Sep 21, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2016
    Mentioned above - basically take the last reported vin # that someone shared in forums on the latest date of the month, then just do that every month. I have data back to 2014.
     
  9. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2014
    Messages:
    4,804
    Location:
    Nederland
    You can find this information in the quarterly report. Search for 18,345. The same paragraph tells you 'including about 6,200 Model X vehicles'.
     
    • Helpful x 1
    • Like x 1
  10. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2013
    Messages:
    2,443
    Location:
    USA
    Where are your extra 1000 coming from? Surprise sales somewhere in Asia?
     
  11. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2014
    Messages:
    4,804
    Location:
    Nederland
    No. It comes from the dramatically lower time between confirmation and production start. Used to be a solid 2 weeks if not more. Now it's just 2 days. This means cars confirmed today may still get delivered this quarter in Fremont. Previously I estimated that all production after the first week of September would go to the next quarter.
     
  12. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2016
    Messages:
    2,021
    Location:
    DC, DC
    Up to VIN 162XXX for local delivery (2hr from Fremont) on 9/30. Only 13 days between order date and delivery.
     
  13. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2014
    Messages:
    4,804
    Location:
    Nederland
    At this point, I'd hesitate to adjust based on the upper bound of a single delivery. There is big likelihood a lot of the 162xxx range will end up as inventory builds to replenish cars for service and sales centers.
     
  14. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2014
    Messages:
    4,804
    Location:
    Nederland
    So, real results are in for some data. I had originally estimated 14k Model S and later increased it to 15k due to smoother production as evidenced by the Model S VIN tracking website. In reality Tesla did even better at 15800 units. For model X my method basically assumed everything assigned could be delivered. That proved to optimistic, 8700 units instead of 10. Maybe they have more demo/store vehicles than I estimated, maybe more people ordered a 5 seater or are in geographies that aren't yet being served. All in all, at 24 500 units or just in between my original and revised targets.
     
    • Like x 3
  15. MitchJi

    MitchJi Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2015
    Messages:
    3,979
    Location:
    Marin County, CA
    How do you view the potential for Gaap profits now?
     
  16. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2013
    Messages:
    3,618
    I'm thinking more of those 5k in transit are Model X versus S.

    I went through your parent post and I get different ASP's... can you clarify what ASP you have for the S versus the X last quarter?

    Thanks.
     
  17. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2014
    Messages:
    4,804
    Location:
    Nederland
    I have an ASP for this quarter on the S for $92 500 and for the X of $105 000. Applying those to actual deliveries and revenue is $1.461B for the S and $913M for the X. Together $2.375B for the full quarter. That's only slightly higher than my original estimate since the larger deliveries are offset by a lower share of costlier model X's. Impact on earnings from my original estimate is +$12M
     
    • Informative x 1
  18. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2014
    Messages:
    4,804
    Location:
    Nederland
    I hesitate to make a GAAP estimate since I simply don't know if they'll really have no remaining guarantees for their leasing partners on the books. If they have none at all, it still isn't easy. We can reasonable estimate earnings from amortized previous sales under resale value guarantee to add be at least $20M in earnings for the quarter. (24% gross margin, $310M release revenue gives nearly $19M). My problem is that I have no clue on the stock based compensation charges for any/this quarter.
     
  19. Fallenone

    Fallenone Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2015
    Messages:
    1,979
    Location:
    Reno, NV
    #39 Fallenone, Oct 3, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2016
    I updated my spreadsheet with the delivery numbers and the easiness of doing some sensitivity analysis on discount uptake rates, improvements on COGS, Model X's additional COGS compared to S (due to early production).

    Assumptions:

    A. On the automotive business
    1. COGS for supplier parts (glider) has a 10% reduction compared to 1H 2016 and before due to doubled production rate of S and X and the reservation numbers of 3 giving Tesla leverage. This parameter will be part of the sensitivity analysis, using 5% and 7.5% as alternatives.

    2. Fixed COGS cost reduction of 37% due to more production.

    3. Model X costs 10k more in COGS to a comparable base Model S, down from $16.5k last quarter due to improved efficiency. This may sound huge, but I think this is reality, otherwise Model X's gross margin couldn't be that low in the past quarters. I also think this will continue to fall in the future. Alternative scenarios are 8k and 12k.

    4. Distribution of Model S are 2700 for 60, 60D, 75, 75D. 2150 for 90D and P90D, 700 for P90DL

    5. Distribution of Model X are 4300 for 75D, 2150 for 90D and P90D, 100 for P100DL

    6. Discount on base prices for 75 kWh Model S and Model X at 10%, for 90 kWh models at 30%. Based on my impression of the discounts I've seen

    7. Discount uptake rate for all Model S 30%. Also based on my impression of the aggressive sales starting in August outside of US and getting more and more apparent in the US in September.

    8. Discount uptake rate for Model X 75 at 30%, X 90 at 10%. Lower for the 90 based on speculation on more 90 versions going to outside US customers who have been waiting for 3 years so no need to discount to push sales.

    B. On the services and others business
    1. Keeping it same as Q2, i.e. 88M. With an assumed 5% gross margin. This is because of

    2. No significant ZEV, I expect this to be the same in Q3 based on reasons I've stated elsewhere and I have high confidence in this assumption.

    3. Although there were some great news on TE, but I highly doubt any of those news made way into Q3 results.

    4. Pure service (like serving owners and selling CPO) has razor thing margins. TE has better but still not taking the larger part of this top line.

    C. On operating expenses
    1. Assumed they went up with the same QoQ as Q2 over Q1. I am a bit worried about this one though. The longer they wait on ramping up OpEx, the higher the risk we would see a messy Model 3 early deliveries. Same goes with CapEx.

    D. On interest and others
    1. Interest income assumed the same as in Q2. Because I have no idea how to guess this.

    2. Interest loss assumed going up with the same QoQ as Q2 over Q1.

    3. Other expenses assumed to be the average over the past 6 quarters, as it seems fluctuating randomly to me.

    E. On GAAP and non-GAAP differences
    1. I don't know how the GAAP revenue will change this quarter. Not a bit. Therefore, I take two scenarios here. One is going along with the average of GAAP revenue from automotive being about 80% of non-GAAP, more of a business as usual scenario. The other one is going with 98% of the non-GAAP. Having GAAP and non-GAAP revenue the same is simply impossible because the wireless connection, future costs for the Superchargers, and other small things are not going to be affected by obsoleting Residual Value Guarantee.

    2. Assumed service and others having no difference between GAAP and non-GAAP

    3. Applied same change ratios for both GAAP and non-GAAP calculations on the OpEx.

    F. Shares outstanding
    1. 148.69 M


    Results:
    Base case
    Glider 10% improved COGS, Model X additional COGS $10k

    ASP for Model S $92.7k, gross margin 24.0%
    ASP for Model X $112.2k, gross margin 23.3%

    non-GAAP EPS $0.24
    GAAP EPS with the 80% of non-GAAP automotive assumption $-0.78
    GAAP EPS with the 98% of non-GAAP automotive assumption $-0.08

    Best case
    Glider 10% improved COGS, Model X additional COGS $8k

    ASP for Model S $92.7k, gross margin 24.0%
    ASP for Model X $112.2k, gross margin 26.0%

    non-GAAP EPS $0.42
    GAAP EPS with the 80% of non-GAAP automotive assumption $-0.63
    GAAP EPS with the 98% of non-GAAP automotive assumption $0.10

    Worst case
    Glider 5% improved COGS, Model X additional COGS $12k

    ASP for Model S $92.7k, gross margin 21.2%
    ASP for Model X $112.2k, gross margin 18.4%

    non-GAAP EPS $-0.35
    GAAP EPS with the 80% of non-GAAP automotive assumption $-1.25
    GAAP EPS with the 98% of non-GAAP automotive assumption $-0.66
     
    • Informative x 4
    • Like x 3
  20. doctoxics

    doctoxics Member

    Joined:
    Mar 26, 2014
    Messages:
    513
    Location:
    Davis, CA
    The Q2 letter said 140 million shares. Is there a more recent source that you are using and/or are there assumptions in your number?
     
Thread Status:
The first post in this thread is a WikiPost, and can be edited by anyone with the appropriate permissions.

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC