2017 Free Supercharging vs 2018 HW change (potential)

[HadoukenZR]

Hi all,

Very glad to hear that the Federal EV tax credit lives on and not repealed as many expected. Looking to get some feedback on when to order.

1) Order by end of month in order to qualify for free supercharging for life.
Personally we don't take too many road trips now but with a 16 month old toddler I can see it being more frequent in the near future. So this would be a "nice to have" I think not a MUST have. And even then X owners are given 400kW for free right? After it would be $0.20 per kWh (in CA) so thats $20 per full 100D charge. Not too bad

2) Wait for HW refresh. But before Fed EV tax credit diminishes
Although this is all speculation I feel that a MX HW change is due sometime in the near future. Mainly because its been almost 2 years (?) since MX was released and we haven't seen any major changes other than seating and option bundling. So essentially waiting to order later in 2018 in hopes to catch the next major HW change.

Of course it could very well be that I wait (X) amount of months and still get the same exact X and just lose out on free supercharging. But thats the gamble I suppose.

Anyway, thoughts?

 

[Tiger]

There's just too many rumors floating around. Good things come to those who wait!

 

[Shock-On-T]

Supercharging is worth practically nothing compared to the price of the car, so I wouldn't factor that into your decision. You'll probably get the 400kWh free anyway, which will cover the bulk of your road trip usage.
Waiting for new hardware is a harder decision. Of course it will come eventually, but whether it's 3 months or 3 years is hard to tell.
I have an AP1 car and absolutely love it. I'm glad I didn't wait, and will happily trade in for an AP3 or AP4 car in a few years.

 

[Racerx22b]

AP2 was available when I got my AP1 MX and I am so glad I made the choice. Based on feedback on this forum, it appears AP1 still works better than AP2. Being first with Tesla (IMHO) usually means you get to sort out all the flaws for the people that patiently waited.

Personally, I'd prefer to get the last run of a design so it's as refined as possible instead of the first run of a new design. Being a Tesla customer makes you rethink traditional outlooks on car ownership. Again, this is my outlook. YMMV

And I think the supercharging for life via a referral code isn't going anywhere so I wouldn't stress on that. If you need a code, shoot me a PM.

 

[redan]

Hi all,


1) Order by end of month in order to qualify for free supercharging for life.

The current free supercharging promotion with a referral code is effective through January 31, 2018 - so you have another month and a half and do not need to order by December 31, 2017. That gives you a little more cushion to decide what to do.

 

[Nerdy_Engineer]

Do you currently own a Tesla? If not, then there's no question you should order it ASAP because that's more time you get to enjoy your Tesla! There are always rumors about what Tesla's going to release in the future. If you keep waiting, you'll never end up buying a Tesla because there's always going to be some improvement on the horizon. However, I think now is probably one of the safest times to buy. With the ramp-up of the Model 3, I don't think Tesla will make any significant changes to the Model S or X in the next year or so.

I know people like to speculate about the Model S and X switching to the 2170 cell, but I just don't think the Gigafactory has the capacity to handle the Model 3, the PowerWall/PowerPack, and the Model S & X. The Gigafactory is having enough trouble making enough cells for just the Powerwall and Powerpack right now to keep up with demand. That demand is going to skyrocket throughout 2018 with the Model 3 production ramp.

 

[HadoukenZR]

The current free supercharging promotion with a referral code is effective through January 31, 2018 - so you have another month and a half and do not need to order by December 31, 2017. That gives you a little more cushion to decide what to do.

Ooh. I didn't realize it was Jan 2018. Thanks for the heads up.

Do you currently own a Tesla? If not, then there's no question you should order it ASAP because that's more time you get to enjoy your Tesla! There are always rumors about what Tesla's going to release in the future. If you keep waiting, you'll never end up buying a Tesla because there's always going to be some improvement on the horizon. However, I think now is probably one of the safest times to buy. With the ramp-up of the Model 3, I don't think Tesla will make any significant changes to the Model S or X in the next year or so.

I know people like to speculate about the Model S and X switching to the 2170 cell, but I just don't think the Gigafactory has the capacity to handle the Model 3, the PowerWall/PowerPack, and the Model S & X. The Gigafactory is having enough trouble making enough cells for just the Powerwall and Powerpack right now to keep up with demand. That demand is going to skyrocket throughout 2018 with the Model 3 production ramp.

Thanks for the feedback. This will be my first Tesla. I definitely get the "Buy now to enjoy sooner" and "Always will be waiting for the next best thing". Since this is a nice to have upgrade from my Audi Q5 Im not in a big rush to pull the trigger. Just wanted to catch the next big HW change whether its battery related or not. Agree the 2170 cell may not be likely anytime soon but I was thinking more in terms of exterior / interior HW changes.

 

[Nerdy_Engineer]

Ooh. I didn't realize it was Jan 2018. Thanks for the heads up.

Thanks for the feedback. This will be my first Tesla. I definitely get the "Buy now to enjoy sooner" and "Always will be waiting for the next best thing". Since this is a nice to have upgrade from my Audi Q5 Im not in a big rush to pull the trigger. Just wanted to catch the next big HW change whether its battery related or not. Agree the 2170 cell may not be likely anytime soon but I was thinking more in terms of exterior / interior HW changes.

Oh, I'd be shocked if there were any exterior/interior changes to the Model S or X within the next two years. The Model S just got a refresh not all that long ago to bring it up to the level of the Model X. I'm a firm believer that we won't see any major interior changes until after Tesla releases Full Self Driving. Then I would expect them to make some potentially significant changes to the interior to capitalize on the Full Self Driving aspect of the cars.

There are constantly little improvements that we never know about, but those aren't worth waiting around for. They're typically just to improve the reliability of sometime that is being repaired in the Service Centers regularly (in which case you'd get the new part if yours needs repaired in the future) or to make it cheaper/easier to build the cars.

 

[sub]

You could drive yourself crazy trying to time the next change and even then it won't be long until there is another one. I just got a new model X this past weekend and it's better than I expected. Even if there are some minor improvements it doesn't change what mine already is. I don't see any exterior changes coming, interior could change since the overall design hasn't changed much since the Model S first came out. One thing I didn't want to do is buy a CPO with less than AP2 so I was future proofed on that one detail.

Model S is due for a complete exterior refresh to my eyes but only because I've been a fanatic since it came out so it feels dated to me personally. However, in the market as a whole it's still a new vehicle since most people still don't know what they are outside of a few pockets like California. I would rather have a model 3 until redesign.

 

[Scott_L]

I'm in the same boat as OP. I have three small kids and while we don't travel much now, I could see us doing more in the future. I ended up creating a spreadsheet that lists all the top travel destinations that we will travel to each year and projected that out 8 years. I set it up so that I could select which trips we would go on each year and then estimated the cost of supercharging factoring in the free annual 400kWs. Then I took the present value of all of those costs to today. Budgeting 4 to 7 trips to year (all at least 2 hours drive but no more 12 hours), then free supercharging is worth approximately $900 per year to me. Which for me, is not enough to rush and unnecessarily overextend myself financially when the kids are so young.

Most people will charge at home. So unless you travel A LOT via car and/or rely on supercharging for regular charging, I would guess free supercharging is worth less than $1,000 over the life of the car (maybe a bit more depending on local grid prices).

 

[Yinn]

A lot of good info here, but one obvious one isn't presented.
Order your car now with a referral code to get free supercharging. Then push your delivery date as far out as possible.

I ordered an AP1 MS when I had my AP1 MX and ended up with a AP2 MS this way. Just be warned, newer is not always better as per @Racerx22b. AP1 still has features that AP2 does not.

 

[HoptownT]

For me the big hardware change of major consequence will be charging speed. My gut says it will be a mike drop kind of Tesla event where all cars coming off the line can charge in 8 min or whatever starting 2 days ago. That's the main way to crush all the up and coming EV posers.

 

[X Fan]

Oh, I'd be shocked if there were any exterior/interior changes to the Model S or X within the next two years. The Model S just got a refresh not all that long ago to bring it up to the level of the Model X. I'm a firm believer that we won't see any major interior changes until after Tesla releases Full Self Driving. Then I would expect them to make some potentially significant changes to the interior to capitalize on the Full Self Driving aspect of the cars.

There are constantly little improvements that we never know about, but those aren't worth waiting around for. They're typically just to improve the reliability of sometime that is being repaired in the Service Centers regularly (in which case you'd get the new part if yours needs repaired in the future) or to make it cheaper/easier to build the cars.

I’ve come to the realization that full self driving is a long way off, certainly more than 24 months out.

Just the other day I was traveling to Miami from Naples early AM and hit a real bad fog situation on Alligator Alley. Car stopped self driving and I had to take over.

FWIW: I think it’s realistic that there will be S&X changes within the next 24 months but why wait....both vehicles are great as is.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I would wait at least to Q2 for changes, e.g. interior update with potential HUD.

After Model 3 launch and based on rumors plenty may happen.

The 2170 cells in Model S/X though, may be delayed if Model 3 takes all (due to their own delays)...

 

[Racerx22b]

with potential HUD

I don't see HUD happening. It isn't in the Model 3 where it would be most needed since there is no driver pod and it wasn't in the Roadster car at the semi event.

My totally uninformed seat of the pants gut feeling is that the model 3 themed interior will happen on the Model S and X. They'll probably have the little screen on the driver and passenger side on the Model S/X. Just like was shown on the Roadster during the semi unveiling event.

I'm personally holding out until faster charging is released. That (as someone stated above) will be a massive game changer. In the meantime, I get to enjoy my AP1 Model S and Model X. Other than the "slow" recharge time while traveling I have no major issues with them. They're awesome cars as is and I have free lifetime supercharging.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I don't see HUD happening. It isn't in the Model 3 where it would be most needed since there is no driver pod and it wasn't in the Roadster car at the semi event.

That could simply be because HUD is late. Some Tesla high-up said in 2016 they would not delay Model 3 for some things they planned for it. Also, they can't show a HUD in Roadster because it would hurt Model S/X sales...

None of this means HUD is coming, either, of course. But just a possibility...

 

[Merrill]

Life is to short and it really does not matter when you buy because in 6 months it will be obsolete, so enjoy it now. For me even though I do not commute or take lots of road trips the supercharging capability is a must.

 

[ninefiveone]

How does HUD in the roadster have any impact on S/X sales?

 

[Yinn]

I don't see HUD happening. It isn't in the Model 3 where it would be most needed since there is no driver pod and it wasn't in the Roadster car at the semi event.

My totally uninformed seat of the pants gut feeling is that the model 3 themed interior will happen on the Model S and X. They'll probably have the little screen on the driver and passenger side on the Model S/X. Just like was shown on the Roadster during the semi unveiling event.

I'm personally holding out until faster charging is released. That (as someone stated above) will be a massive game changer. In the meantime, I get to enjoy my AP1 Model S and Model X. Other than the "slow" recharge time while traveling I have no major issues with them. They're awesome cars as is and I have free lifetime supercharging.

First rule of Tesla-ing - You do NOT take away HUD talk. What else are we going to speculate about for the next 3 years until the Semi, Roadster, and X refresh hits?

There's only 3 major topics that really drives the activity on this forum..
1. Introduction of HUD in the next update.
2. AP[Current] is on par with AP[Current-1]
3. Here, use my referral code.

 

[Krazaak]

I don't miss my HUD as much as I thought I would. The instrument cluster layout and digital speed readout is highly visible and superior to to my BMWs. With the BMWs, the steering wheel blocked the top of the speedometer and tach, so the HUD made a huge difference. It might be nice to have nav prompts up there though. There's also the added advantage that the MX windshield is roughly half the cost of my X6M windshield, despite being a much larger piece of glass. Even though insurance is usually involved with windshield replacement, my insurance fought tooth and nail when my X6M windshield was replaced and paid my MX windshield claim without issue. For those that aren't aware, a HUD requires a special windshield with a section of specially bonded layers to avoid double images in the HUD. If people are anticipating a HUD covering a large section of windshield, then we're talking about a very expensive windshield.

What I absolutely do miss though, is the top down camera.