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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Have people tried chain saws, the size of tank tracks, paired and articulated like the arms of the robot on Lost in Space?

For the tunnel boring machine.
Would need continuous feed water through the bearing surfaces to keep them clean. And high pressure water cutter jets off the tips to acccelerate progress through rock. But the chain spreads wear over a lot of tools and conveys the chips away from the cutting interface.
 
Does anyone have a list of analyst targets for Model 3 deliveries by end of 2017.

Musk says 20k produced per month in December.
Adam Jonas is 2000 produced total in 2017 (to collect customer information).

Seems there is a wide disconnect at least between Jonas and Musk on expectations.
 
UK will ban petrol and diesel cars by 2040. I don't know if the politicians are aware, by 2025 petrol cars will not be able to compete with EVs, because EVs will be better in every regard and cost less. According to Gene Munster, Model 3's five year ownership cost is 13% higher than Toyota Camry. But for people who own cars for 10+ years, Model 3 will cost much less than Camry.

This kind of banning is just a gesture, doesn't make much real difference. Very few people will be willing to buy ICE cars by 2030, let alone 2040.

ICE cars are going away. Elon and JB predicted this long time ago.
 
Does anyone have a list of analyst targets for Model 3 deliveries by end of 2017.

Musk says 20k produced per month in December.
Adam Jonas is 2000 produced total in 2017 (to collect customer information).

Seems there is a wide disconnect at least between Jonas and Musk on expectations.

Actually EM said if the ramp goes well he expects to be producing 5,000/week when exiting December.

Based on that I am assuming less than 20k in December.

Jonas did predict less than 2K total deliveries in 2017 IIRC so if EM is even close to his ramp he should exceed Jonas estimate 10 fold or more
 
Actually EM said if the ramp goes well he expects to be producing 5,000/week when exiting December.

Based on that I am assuming less than 20k in December.

Jonas did predict less than 2K total deliveries in 2017 IIRC so if EM is even close to his ramp he should exceed Jonas estimate 10 fold or more

Anything like 10K total units I feel is a big win, if the 'Tesla Bull' only gives credit for 2K. What does Goldman say, 0?
 

I had experience with both "Tesla Spec" tires with acoustic foam used by Tesla for performance variants of Model S: Continental Contisportcontact 5P and Michelin Pilot Super Sport. Both are "maximum performance" summer tires which generally compromise ride quality and quietness in order to achieve maximum performance. Michelin are all way around far superior to the Continentals. Foam does reduce tire noise noticeably for both Continentals and Michelins, but beware of ***up to*** in the 9dB claim.

An interesting anecdote is that I ordered Michelin SSP from the Tirerack.com this spring and they were delivered to my garage door during the very rainy day, so when I picked them up to carry inside the garage the foam inside was soaking wet. These tires can't be installed in such condition because installation would seal all this water and it will be slouching inside the tire as it rotates as well as will have potential to damage the foam. It took couple of days to completely dry the foam inside the tires, so I could not install them the following day. I complained to Tirerack, and they were great (after some initial push back). Apparently this was their first encounter with this problem. They contacted Michelin and told me that from that point on they will be shipping tires with acoustic foam in weather impervious sleeves to protect from water ingress. They also refunded delivery charges for the tires.
 
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Here's an old saying you might want to keep in mind before posting: better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.

Horses were in fact still used in WWI (1914-1918) with MILLIONS killed. Additional MILLIONS of horses were also used in WWII (1939-1945). So, no. Once again THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION (1790-1830/40) wasn't the demise of the horse.

THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION was NOT responsible for the end of the horse and buggy. It was the PRODUCTION line invented by Henry Ford in 1913... more than 80 years after THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION was over. The PRODUCTION line allowed gas cars to become affordable to a much larger population segment. Cars made sense to people because instead of leaving at sunrise to go to town and returning at sunset via horse and buggy, people could accomplish that in less than half the time. Convenience and time saving. The car also allowed people to more easily travel long distance and many people by nature are nomadic and explorers.



Irrelevant.



Irrelevant.
"THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION was NOT responsible for the end of the horse and buggy"

what drugs are you on... if Henry Ford built every car by hand... one at a time... how many horses would have this replaced?

it was the INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION that created mass production... it was the INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION that lead to massive carbon emissions... it was the INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION that allows 7 billion people to live on this planet at the same time.... it's a good thing and a bad thing.

yes... eventually the Model T was made... and it was the turning point for personal transportation... but it was the mass production that made it replace horses.

but the point isn't what the **** history we're talking about here... the point is... the minor change of replacing the power plant in a vehicle vs the mass production of the Model T is NOT even in the same ballpark of comparison...

and the original point is... the argument of my statement regarding cult like following was a concept that was introduced by Elon... to repeat... this horse and buggy thing... the argument made against my post regarding a cult like following... was introduced by what would be considered the cult leader... how freaking ironic is that?
 
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The following is a pretty hilarious exchange between Adam Jonas and GM's CEO on GM's earnings call:

General Motors (GM) Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

Adam Michael Jonas - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Hi. Just a couple of questions. First, so Tesla's been out with a car capable of OTA updates in firmware for about five years now. Now excluding Cruise, does GM currently sell any car capable of OTA updates of firmware? Mary?

Mary Teresa Barra - General Motors Co.

So on the updates. We have done over-the-air updates primarily to the OnStar system. We are in the process of deploying a new electrical architecture which is a pretty comprehensive undertaking, and that's well underway and being deployed as well as a whole new generation of infotainment systems. So you'll see us have that capability as we move forward. Right now it's pretty much limited to updates from an OnStar basis

Adam Michael Jonas - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

So any view on timing of when that new architecture could be out that could enable the, obvious, ability for your fleet to learn and revenue opportunities that are within? What side of 2020 could that be, do you think?

Mary Teresa Barra - General Motors Co.

Before 2020.

Adam Michael Jonas - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Okay. Great.

a while ago we used to discuss how the current automakers have transitioned to an outsourced model for key sub-asssemblies and no longer have end to end control of their vehicle. In other words, to reduce capital levels & seek scale benefits most / many key components are sourced from third party suppliers like Bosch.

Since this includes most electronics and the underlying control software the automakers are not set up for single system level software updates. Tesla took advantage of clean sheet design & Elon's understanding of software/ software teams to maintain control of (almost) the entire vehicle.

This is such a big advantage.

And not just for vehicle OTA updates but also on the overall manufacturing level. I am convinced that Tesla is able to rapidly implement design changes to production because they have a software infrastructure that supports real time tracking of each component at the time it is being placed in a particular vehicle.
 
Nah, Tesla likely just paid Nico to come down. Give some inspirational speech, do a meet&greet with hardworking staff, possibly talk to some engineers about what makes great driving and then take a selfie and publish it.
Rosberg was also at a company meeting at Chargepoint, where he is an investor. Making the rounds in Silicon Valley.
 
I'm still working on an update to my post on the goodenaugh solitaire state batteries but in the meantime:
Toyota plans to use solid-state batteries to enable longer-range EVs with fast-charging


We reported on how Toyota is late to the electric car revolution just yesterday. While the Japanese automaker doesn’t seem to have many EVs in the pipeline, it has now confirmed that it plans to be among the first automakers to commercialize electric cars using new solid-state batteries.

A report from the Chunichi Shimbun daily (via Reuters) suggested that Toyota is on track to launch a new electric car platform in 2022 with solid-state batteries powering the vehicles and enabling longer ranges and faster charging.

The company didn’t comment on the specific platform, but they did confirm that they plan “
to commercialize all-solid-state batteries by the early 2020s.”


Solid-state batteries are thought to be a lot safer than common li-ion cells and could have more potential for higher energy density, but we have yet to see a company capable of producing it in large-scale and at an attractive price point competitive with li-ion.

If Tesla is starting to work with the goodenaugh batteries when will we find out? I talking to a friend who is in charge of battery technology at a small successful Silicon Valley EV company. Two things:
His company is not planning to work with goodenaugh because they don't have the capacity to work,on the cell cathodes and Tesla is probably better suited for work on the cell cathodes than any of car company.

And he said that the difficult part is the anode, the difficult part is already done.

G: At the present time, we do not envision any problems with scale up. Although we have demonstrated with coin cells and a jelly-roll cell how to make novel cathodes, we have not optimized the cathode capacity, voltage, and discharge/charge rates. The anode problem is solved, but battery manufacturers will need to work with Li or Na anodes, which means dry-room assembly.

I think it's possible that Tesla and Panasonic are two of the more than fifty companies working on this. If they are or when they are extremely confident that they will solve the cathode problem, which could be already they might announce that as part of the Gigafactory announcements. If they do that it will be huge.

At least (probably much more - that's what I'm trying to find out now) 200-300 gwh from the Nevada Gigafactory!
 
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VW executive charged in U.S. emissions probe to plead guilty: court

"
(Reuters) - A Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE) executive charged in the automaker's diesel emissions scandal plans to plead guilty on Aug. 4 in U.S. District Court in Detroit, a court spokesman said on Tuesday.

Oliver Schmidt, who was chief of Volkswagen's environmental and engineering center in Michigan, has been held since January when he was arrested trying to return to Germany. Schmidt is one of eight current and former executives charged in the U.S. emissions probe.

Federal court spokesman David Ashenfelter said prosecutors and lawyers told U.S. District Judge Sean Cox on Tuesday morning that Schmidt had decided to plead guilty.

A lawyer for Schmidt, David DuMouchel, declined to comment. Schmidt was charged with 11 felony counts and federal prosecutors said earlier this year that he could face a maximum of up to 169 years in prison."

Looking at 169 years in jail will make a lot of people talk.
 
"Let me stress that last point. There is a good reason why Nokia, which at one time was the dominant cellphone manufacturer, failed to compete with the iPhone...General Motors’ answer to Tesla has been no different from Nokia’s response to the iPhone...Unless an ICE car company creates a silo unit isolated from the rest of the operation, it will be extremely difficult if not impossible to get engineers who have designed ICE vehicles all their lives to change their thinking and turn into electric-car engineers."

The Apple Car could run traditional automakers off the road

;)
 
UK will ban petrol and diesel cars by 2040. I don't know if the politicians are aware, by 2025 petrol cars will not be able to compete with EVs, because EVs will be better in every regard and cost less. According to Gene Munster, Model 3's five year ownership cost is 13% higher than Toyota Camry. But for people who own cars for 10+ years, Model 3 will cost much less than Camry.

This kind of banning is just a gesture, doesn't make much real difference. Very few people will be willing to buy ICE cars by 2030, let alone 2040.

ICE cars are going away. Elon and JB predicted this long time ago.

I think Gene Munster is right, but leaves out one small but valuable consideration. The residual value of the 3 would be at least 30% higher, which would make it on par with the Camry if you lease it for 5 years. Even if you sell or trade the 3 in after 5 years you get the benefits of the higher residual value. Using TCO+residual also compares favorably to the Carolla over a 10 year period due to fuel and maintenance costs. Adding solar only exaggerates the benefits. I think model 3 will be a huge driver for solar adoption amongst those who don't already have it.
 
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