@22522 I think
@Oil4AsphaultOnly perhaps already kind of summed up how I thought about your seed corn premise.
Maximizing a given position is always a favorite of mine to see if I can break the logic. Along those lines, would you argue that Tesla ate its seed corn by garnering the margins it did on X, S & Roadster by not selling them at a lower price to create even happier customers?
Because I feel like this line of logic walks a person into a very tenuous position given it is totally at odds with the Master Plan.
No, I don't think they ate seed corn with those cars. But would have squandered it if the 3 (or other highly producible vehicle) were not available for the two quarters after the 200K trigger event.
The answer to your question is above. From here on it is rambling, for now.
I have said several times that I am ok losing "my" credit to walk in buyers, because Tesla needs the floor traffic buyer to be trained when the subsidy drops by half. The key point being that the incentive of the subsidy should be used to get Tesla through the lull at the end of the subsidy. When the subsidy drops, Tesla should have already established credibility and loyalty supporting stories in the middle class neighborhoods. There is a six to nine month time constant on building credibility. That means you want to alter the mix toward $35K cars in November and December of this year. This is different than what I thought made sense a few months ago. Key point being, "A $50,000 car sale can never be used to make a net promoter story that plays with the middle class. A $25,500 to $27,500 car sale can be used to make that net promoter story - the math actually works for the family household." (I actually think the math works at $35k, but not as compellingly [if that is a word]. Tesla's future is a function of how many $25,500 to $27,500 seed stories occur before next summer.
I have not drawn the picture that shows the 21 billion in lost revenue by being slow to win the allegiance of the middle class yet, but there is tape of JB where voice tone shows he did not go though all this effort to build toys for rich people.
The one place where I find myself perhaps at odds with the Master Plan is: I want Tesla break the tax credit by shipping so many cars in the six months after they meet the incentive threshold that the lost revenue is comparible to the GM bailout.
The unbounded nature of that incentive leaves Tesla susceptible to a big company that does not really buy into EVs. I would demonstrate the unbounded nature by delivering as many of the easiest to build car I had inside that window. The one with fewest parts and fewest battery modules. The one that can make a credible case for EVs to the middle class - using customer stories from the middle class. The one with an effective selling price of $25,500 to $27,500.
So Tesla's future depends more on the product mix going into December than almost any other outstanding factor. It will be the stories that these cars generate that carry Tesla past the edge of incentives.
