dude... you did not get or read what I said...
Provide actual facts and I will actually read what you post. All you ever say is that its not possible and its to hard and no one can do it and blah blah. At least, for the love of everything that is holy, drive the damn car before making another dumb post about how great the BMW 330i is.
EVERY SINGLE AUTO MANUFACTURER
Where are they going to get the batteries smart guy. Your analysis has to be smarter then just saying it will happen. I will give you a clue from someone who has looked into the competition, they wont get the batteries unless they make them. and they have no plans or technology of any significance to do so. Not that they are behind Tesla and just need to catch up, they havnt even started. Even IF, they had the batteries, they dont have the charging network. Where are all these magical cars going to charge?
50% yoy on the ridiculously ambitious goals Elon's set look like this:
2021: 1m cars delivered
2023: 2m cars delivered
Tesla has grown deliveries more then 50% year year since 2012. Just saying its ridiculous again is meaningless when you dont explain why. Why in the world would I take what you say as anything but lies when the stock is 10 fold over that time period. Are you the only smart person alive because the majority of everyone else is pushing the stock higher.
You keep stating things as facts, but the history paints a very different picture. I dont believe a word Elon says, but I can see what has happened in the past and project what is possible in the future based on that. All you can do is say that it wont happen because uhg, because it wont!
BMW is a joke, you are a joke and neither of you are in on the punch line. BMW could have been Tesla, but they where not smart enough. You could have made money betting on Tesla, but you are not smart enough. You should have been long for the last 10 years at least, then I would at least think you had some credibility. You come on this forum an mouth off like a big man, but in reality you are just to lazy to do some research. When and only when there are dozens of 5B+ factories to build batteries in the US and Europe, not China because China wont be exporting batteries for at least a decade. Not until you start to see an actually plan with some actual teeth can you assume and it is just an assumption, that there will be ANY competition. And they dont just need batteries, they need to build a charging network. Its not an option, its mandatory. This stuff requires actual action, like real permits and real disclosures to stock holders and real dirt being moved. Until then, its all a figment of yours and their imagination.
I again ask you, WHY Tesla cannot make 2M cars a year by 2021, and while doing so, crush BMW under its boot? WHY is the question, not that you assume its unlikely because of (fart noise).
I get your goal is not to actually have cogent arguments, but rather to sow doubt and despair, but no one here is going to just buy your crap without actual facts that backs up what you are saying.
Is it unlikely, about as unlikely as taking over the rocket industry from nothing in 10 years going against one of the most powerful group of companies on the planet. Though they are not as despicable as the auto industry and dealer network, they still do not play fair.
Here is another clue for you since you like numbers. Tesla does not have to sell 2M cars (where BMW has been stuck for years) to be bigger then BMW. BMW has GM of ~18%, Tesla only has to sell 1,250,000 cars in a year at 30% GM to surpass BMW. The difference is that by the time that happens, BMW will be selling 1M cars and Tesla wont be stopping at 1,250,000 cars per year. And why do I assume that? Because I have seen what S/X has done to the other BMW flagship cars, and higher margin cars I might add.
How do I know this will happen, because its already started to happen vs 5-Series and 7-Series as well as the X6 in the SUV segment. Where is your proof that it wont happen against the 3-Series? Is it just because you own a 330i and like it so no one else will buy a Model 3? I mean, we need more facts then that to believe you.
BTW, I think 50% growth is tepid, clearly. 100k to 500K is actually 500% YoY growth. This is more inline with what I suspect. I base this on historical proof of every accelerating success. I mean, Tesla is spending 5B on Battery manufacturing and Fremont to build something, not because its fun. Where is BMW's investment in a battery factory to make a million EVs by 2020? I mean they and everyone else is coming out with dozens of cars each and all targeting 2020. They must be well into building battery factories at this point right? I mean someone somewhere should be building batteries for this push right? LG is one of the biggest battery manufactures in the world and is increasing their output for auto by 50%!!! from 20,000 to 30,000 (Wah wah.. dud). That should do it. I hear Samsung has a 21-70 battery, they must be building a 10 million sq ft factory to build them for all these mythical 2020 cars? Where is your PROOF and FACTS that competition is coming? And why would they be able to build better cars then they build today. I think its a big assumption that they can actually make a nice car even if they had the batteries, charging network and technology. They just flat out do not have any of it and have no concrete plans besides a mock up of a mythical 2020 car.
I have a prediction for you.. Stock holders are going to start throwing those bums out as the heads of those companies for sitting on their hands (Just like Ford just did). I mean they are paying FUDsters, but that's not really a plan to counter Tesla. Hoping Tesla fails is not an actual plan. I am sure they can find some young innovative people to lead them into the future, I mean Steve Jobsian guys can just be found at the local coffee shops. If a bipolar crazy person can do it, any guy with a soul patch at local coffee shop should suffice.
Your equation is flawed, you assume BMW and Daimler will be bigger or the same size in 5 years. You assume that they can make batteries for 0 dollars of expense and require no R&D to make a completely new mass market vehicle. I guess they could just strap a battery back to a 3-series and call it good. I mean making cars is really simple for these guys. The only thing that makes them profitable is that they have been making the same car for decades with only minute incremental improvements. Now you assume they are going to make a complete new product that they have never made and not incur any additional costs. these are companies with massive liabilities and massive legacy employee issues. I would guess that the German companies cant even fire the engine makers, you cant fire employees in Germany, you have to wait for them to retire. Maybe they can retrain them all to make batteries.
Im pretty much done with you until you start to actually come up with some facts and not just whining that its not possible, because it is possible and for Elon that means probable.
