Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.

ValueAnalyst

Closed
Aug 25, 2016
5,371
11,124
World
It's just par for the course with Tesla. In fact I am quite generous given their track record : Jul 31st 2014 Tesla was preducting a yearly run rate of 100k by the end of that year. It took nearly 18 months longer. We are at a similar date looking for a similar end of year prediction.

Again, reasoning by analogy vs. first principles. Tesla in 2014 was a completely different company with much smaller organization, less mature processes and control procedures, dependent on one product, much less revenues, tied to second-tier suppliers, much less visibility into Model 3, zero visibility into Gigafactory, zero manufacturing experience, 100% dependent on equity secondaries, and so on. I can go on with this list longer than Dennis Kimetto can run.

None
of the above factors apply today.

Please! Put just a tad more thought into your projections than simply projecting the past. You are contributing to a forum followed by thousands of people, majority of whom have zero valuation experience. You owe them the due diligence.
 
Last edited:

DurandalAI

Member
Dec 20, 2016
962
2,912
US
Interesting that the Unionization story comes out the day before earnings. I assume some sort of discrimination issue will pop up later today or tomorrow as well. The pattern seems to repeat itself each quarter.

Sad that hedgies and other market participants have resulted to these types of games.
Same old dross as before, it's when it's a re-hash of old "concerns" that you know it's orchestrated. The key might have changed, but the chord progression is just the same.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dennis and neroden

vgrinshpun

Supporting Member
Apr 5, 2013
5,886
22,790
PA
um... BMW had a record year in 2016... the increase in vehicles sold between 2015 and 2016 was greater than ALL CARS TESLA HAS EVER SOLD.

you guys are ridiculous... how many cars does Tesla plan to make in 2020?... YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW... Elon hasn't even give guidance and you're like "BMW's dead!... VW's dead!... GM is dead!... because Tesla's gunna kill them all!"

Thank you for pointing healthy overall global BMW sales in 2016. So the question is what would be a possible reason for 24.4% decline in US sales of the "incredible vehicle" with the background of healthy overall US automotive sales in 2016 *and* record overall global BMW sales? (I gave you the answer: M3 reservations) How is this for a risk?

Um... Indeed... Looks like your logic is failing, perhaps understandably... Physical discomfort... Being wet... Pissing against the wind for some time now... and such...
 

stealthology

Member
Jan 24, 2013
467
642
Hawaii
Don't kill the messenger. This article just came out. Thoughts?

By Sonali Basak and Simone Foxman
(Bloomberg) -- David Einhorn pressed his case on why he
thinks Tesla Inc. is overvalued after the electric-car maker�s
stock surge in the second quarter stung the hedge fund investor.
�The company is expected to burn over $2 billion this year
as it begins production of its Model 3,� Einhorn said Tuesday on
a conference call discussing results at Greenlight Capital Re
Ltd., the Cayman Islands-based insurer where he oversees
investments. �It�s currently only capitalized for the next three
quarters. As Tesla attempts to achieve scale for the Model 3, it
will depend on the capital markets� willingness to fund it.�
Tesla, which began production of its more affordable Model
3 in July and handed over the first 30 cars at an event Friday,
expanded credit agreements and raised capital through equity and
debt offerings ahead of the launch. Tesla wants to make 500,000
cars in 2018, then a million in 2020. The company produced
almost 84,000 vehicles last year.
With equities trading at record levels, Einhorn has endured
losses on bets against stocks such as Amazon.com Inc.,
Athenahealth Inc. and Elon Musk�s Tesla. All have gained at
least 30 percent this year.
Einhorn did benefit from a bet on the decline of oil
exploration company Continental Resources Inc., and his holding
of pharmaceutical company Bayer AG. The hedge fund manager
lamented that his strategy of favoring value over growth --
while historically a winning formula -- hasn�t worked as well in
the recent rally.

�No Control�

�I like the composition of the portfolio,� he said. �I
would like to see a little bit of this headwind go away, but I
have no control over when that might be. And I�m hopeful that we
can achieve a decent result, even if the environment is
difficult.�
Tuesday morning, at least, the markets were heading his
way. Greenlight Re advanced 50 cents to $21.90 at 10:05 a.m.,
narrowing its loss for this year to 3.7 percent, after reporting
Monday that insurance underwriting was profitable in the second
quarter even as Einhorn�s investment portfolio generated losses
in the period. Also, his main hedge fund at Greenlight Capital
rose 2.1 percent in July, according to an e-mail sent to clients
Monday.
Tesla slipped $4.49 to $318.98. Musk�s company is still up
almost 50 percent since Dec. 31. Einhorn Says Tesla Model 3 Cash Burn to Test Faith of Markets
2017-08-01 15:08:55.421 GMT
 
  • Funny
  • Informative
Reactions: Lessmog and neroden

Reciprocity

Active Member
Feb 27, 2017
4,160
10,905
Chicagoland
um... BMW had a record year in 2016... the increase in vehicles sold between 2015 and 2016 was greater than ALL CARS TESLA HAS EVER SOLD.

you guys are ridiculous... how many cars does Tesla plan to make in 2020?... YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW... Elon hasn't even give guidance and you're like "BMW's dead!... VW's dead!... GM is dead!... because Tesla's gunna kill them all!"

Full-year sales of BMW and MINI vehicles in the Americas were 7.2% lower than the record high achieved in 2015, with a total of 458,982 units delivered to customers this year. While Canada achieved growth of 6.1% (44,621) and deliveries in Mexico, Argentina and Latin American importer markets rose 15.4% (34,670), the exceptionally competitive market conditions in the USA saw sales there down 9.7% (365,204).
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Lessmog and neroden

zdriver

Member
Jul 18, 2016
415
2,563
WI
Project TIM update:

"Against" Facebook group is no longer public. Go figure.
"For" Facebook group posted the following, which assuming figures are accurate, I think does an even better job of comparing the two projects than I have...

20615824_1945166899106400_9124397911760369361_o.jpg
 

Reciprocity

Active Member
Feb 27, 2017
4,160
10,905
Chicagoland
um... BMW had a record year in 2016... the increase in vehicles sold between 2015 and 2016 was greater than ALL CARS TESLA HAS EVER SOLD.

you guys are ridiculous... how many cars does Tesla plan to make in 2020?... YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW... Elon hasn't even give guidance and you're like "BMW's dead!... VW's dead!... GM is dead!... because Tesla's gunna kill them all!"

Woodcliff Lake, NJ – June 1, 2017…
Sales of BMW brand vehicles decreased 11.0 percent in May for a total of 25,818 compared to 29,017 vehicles sold in May 2016. Year-to-date, the BMW brand is down 3.6 percent in the U.S. on sales of 120,124 vehicles compared to 124,581 sold in the first five months of 2016.
 

MitchJi

Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Jun 1, 2015
3,972
8,905
Marin County, CA
What a disappointing day, even after all the good reviews we still pulled back. Days like these makes me glad I'm in it for the long haul. No idea what to do with this stock except buy and hold until 2025..
There are two possible issues:
The market doesn't believe that Tesla can produce the M3 in volume in a timely manner.

The market doesn't believe that Tesla will make a profit on the M3.

The second possibility is ludicrous, so I believe it's mostly production. So if Tesla hits a problem in the M3 production watch out, for a quarter (maximum).

OTOH if Tesla has a smooth M3 ramp the SP will be over four hundred by January (Q4 numbers) or May (Q2 profits) at the latest.
 
Last edited:

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,627
Ithaca, NY, USA
Here is that matrix from "A Framework for Understanding Poverty" mentioned earlier.

Some pretty gross generalizations there, though they're probably true as generalizations. The description of the wealthy is straight out of _Theory of the Leisure Class_... which is still largely correct, but the obsession of the wealthy with the past has actually declined, practically disappeared, and been replaced with an obsession with the perceived future.

The thing is, socially, there are far more than three classes. (The old phrase was "the middle classes", plural, because academics, bureaucrats/middle managers, professionals from each of the professions, shopkeepers, and entrepeneurs are wildly different from one another socially. Most of today's middle class are bureaucrats or professionals.)

The academic class -- from which I come -- really behaves like none of the classes in this chart.

The academic class does not view education in ANY of these three ways, which is why the academic class is always somewhat contemptuous of people who view education in such petty, transactional ways. The academic class views education as inherently valuable in itself, as "self-improvement", as something which makes you better in every way, not merely as a stepping stone to something else. As the path to enlightenment. If this achieves other things along the way, well of course it does, since the enlightened person will be more capable of interacting with the world competently -- but it is not *for* that purpose.

This is why your social status in academic circles is quite independent of your wealth: it is based on your demonstrated willingness and ability to learn, teach, argue, invent, analyze, and generally *understand*.

The primary possession of an academic is knowledge (traditionally in the form of books, but there are plenty of other forms too). Personality is for the acquisition of connections which allow acquiring or dissseminating knowlege and wisdom (learning and teaching). The social emphasis is on, as Intl Professor has mentioned, "surrounding yourself with people smarter than you" (though often people misjudge this and try to be the smartest person in the room). Food is judged like middle class people; clothing like poor people (both as expressions of individual taste)... unless there's an argument to be made that one thing is more *practical* than another, which wins. Decisions are based on consideration of the future, but with priorities (*teaching* people) which might not be understood by non-academics. Destiny is not a matter of doctrine; the relationship of chance vs. cause-and-effect to the world is a problem to be studied scientifically. Language is not about survival, negotiation, or connection: it is about communication. Family structure is dominated by whoever is the smartest or knows the most, or can credibly claim to. Sees the world through a *universal* viewpoint (humans are only a tiny part of a huge universe). Love and acceptance is based on perceived *competence*.

Unsurprisingly, in the academic class, the driving force is the desire to KNOW, with a secondary desire to teach.

The academic class is not well-understood by people in most of the other social classes, which may explain why universities traditionally put up walls to defend themselves.

To swing the topic back around to Tesla, the academic class has of course been aggressively early adopters of electric cars; you'll find huge numbers in any college town. Tesla has basically taken over mindshare of the portion of the rich who are obsessed with the "future". They've made the cars aspirational status symbols for the ladder-climbing bureaucrat or middle manager.
 
Last edited:

Waiting4M3

Active Member
Apr 13, 2016
3,328
12,066
San Jose, California
There are two possible issues:
The market doesn't believe that Tesla can produce the M3 on volume in a timely manner.

The market doesn't believe that Tesla will make a profit on the M3.

The second possibility is ludicrous, so I believe it's mostly production. So if Tesla hits a problem in the M3 production watch out, for a quarter (maximum).

OTOH if Tesla has a smooth M3 ramp the SP will be over four hundred by January (Q4 numbers) or May (Q2 profits) at the latest.
I think if we see the configurator opens to non-Tesla employees by early Oct I think PPS will move up. If we don't see it by Oct end the PPS will go down. Personally I think Tesla's "S" curve would've been better if it had visualization of margin of error around it.

Also end of Q3 M3 ramp update would be significant.
img-scurve.svg
 

MitchJi

Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Jun 1, 2015
3,972
8,905
Marin County, CA
Please don't encourage them! They have already succeeded in reducing the usefulness of this thread to almost zero!
@mmd and @myusername -

This is a challenge.

What are your Model 3 unit, gross margin, and R&D expense projections for 3Q17, 4Q17, 1Q18, and 2Q18?
Of course moderation should help, but it won't.
 
Last edited:

ValueAnalyst

Closed
Aug 25, 2016
5,371
11,124
World
Phil LeBeau twitter

Phil LeBeau on Twitter

He is usually 'fair and balanced' when it comes to Tesla.

These numbers don't surprise me and I expect the drop outs will be replaced

So let me get this straight...

Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi, who has been super bearish on Tesla, surveyed 286 people, which is ~0.05% of Model 3 reservation holders, and extrapolated that tiny sample size to conclude that one-third of all 550,000+ people will not take delivery (so doesn't say they canceled reservation), after all the raving reviews from everyone, and we still end up with more Model 3 reservations than Tesla can manufacture in the next 18 months?

OK then...

upload_2017-8-1_12-8-28.png
 
Last edited:

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,627
Ithaca, NY, USA
well here's something that's going to wrinkle your forehead... i'm a diehard tree hugging liberal and am short Tesla.
Myusername: you've also indicated previously that your area of competence is in short-term trading. Not in long-term valuation.

It is possible for a skilled short-term trader to swing-trade TSLA, including going short over short periods. But watch out for getting run over by the steamroller as the company's long-term success becomes clear.

I do know a certain number of extremist back-to-the-land lefties who hate Tesla because they hate all of industrial civilization. Are you one of those? The "take cold showers, hike to work, sacrifice" types? I tend to just roll my eyes at them because their proposals are not practical (being contrary to too much typical human psychology), even if their hearts are in the right place.
 

SebastianR

Active Member
Feb 8, 2013
1,191
5,976
Denmark
Phil LeBeau twitter

Phil LeBeau on Twitter

He is usually 'fair and balanced' when it comes to Tesla.

These numbers don't surprise me and I expect the drop outs will be replaced

That's actually really great: If you take the scale from "Very likely", "likely", "unsure/neutral", "unlikely" to "very unlikely" you get 70% in the "very likely" and "likely" category. I think that's amazing for a purchase this size given that nobody has seen the car in person yet.

I'm as big a Tesla fan as the rest of us here and I put my money down as soon as reservations were open. But I would have probably responded "unsure/neutral" in any survey. Why? It is one thing to reserve a car sight unseen. But I'm certainly not going to spend 50k on something I never touched...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top