It's just par for the course with Tesla. In fact I am quite generous given their track record : Jul 31st 2014 Tesla was preducting a yearly run rate of 100k by the end of that year. It took nearly 18 months longer. We are at a similar date looking for a similar end of year prediction.
Again, reasoning by analogy vs. first principles. Tesla in 2014 was a completely different company with much smaller organization, less mature processes and control procedures, dependent on one product, much less revenues, tied to second-tier suppliers, much less visibility into Model 3, zero visibility into Gigafactory, zero manufacturing experience, 100% dependent on equity secondaries, and so on. I can go on with this list longer than Dennis Kimetto can run.
None of the above factors apply today.
Please! Put just a tad more thought into your projections than simply projecting the past. You are contributing to a forum followed by thousands of people, majority of whom have zero valuation experience. You owe them the due diligence.