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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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EinSV

Active Member
Feb 6, 2016
4,330
21,540
NorCal
Phil LeBeau twitter

Phil LeBeau on Twitter

He is usually 'fair and balanced' when it comes to Tesla.

These numbers don't surprise me and I expect the drop outs will be replaced

So if this is to be believed 350,000+ people on the reservation list are likely or very likely to take delivery and many more are still thinking about it. (Not to mention the number of Model S/X buyers among those who say they are unlikely to buy the 3).

Cool.

Edit: @SebastianR beat me to it.:)
 
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ValueAnalyst

Closed
Aug 25, 2016
5,371
11,124
World
July 2017 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

Putting this in perspective, in Sep, 1500 M3 would already be around top 5 in US EV sales, and it's not even close to finish ramping yet, by the end of Dec the M3 could be at a Toyota Camry volume, outselling 3-series, A3/A4/S3/S4, C-class combined

I think it's time that we drop comparisons to other EV sales/specs/volume/profitability and so on.

Model 3 is about choking ICE.
 

techmaven

Active Member
Feb 27, 2013
3,618
9,711
um... BMW had a record year in 2016... the increase in vehicles sold between 2015 and 2016 was greater than ALL CARS TESLA HAS EVER SOLD.

you guys are ridiculous... how many cars does Tesla plan to make in 2020?... YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW... Elon hasn't even give guidance and you're like "BMW's dead!... VW's dead!... GM is dead!... because Tesla's gunna kill them all!"

The iPhone ships in 2007. RIM's revenue in 2007 was $3 billion. RIM's revenues grow to a peak of almost $20 billion in 2011, 4 years later. Amazing 7x growth. But in 2013, it's $11 billion, and by 2015, it's back down to $3.3 billion. Now it's $1.3 billion.

Blackberry's device shipments peak in 2011, well after the 2007 intro of the iPhone:

blackberryviphone.jpg


From: iPhone vs BlackBerry

In 2007 and 2008, plenty of people thought Apple's iPhone was destined to fail, or at least just be a small niche product. It wasn't obviously apparent to pretty much everyone that the trajectories would be vastly different until 2010. Stephen Elop’s “Burning Platform” memo wasn't until 2011, when Nokia went from dominance to WTF do we do now?

It isn't always obvious when something new comes along that it will be the disruptor. Sure, the signs are there, but can it really do it? The thought that millions of 12-14 year olds will be entrusted with carrying around $600-1,000 digital devices every day with $15-30 monthly payments was completely absurd to lots of people in 2007/2008. By 2012, not so much.
 

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,627
Ithaca, NY, USA
You'll have more success shorting oil, since the world's wars, armies and whole countries revolve on the oil trade and its value. And oil can be replaced with a battery, a fan, a solar cell and some wiring...

I stay out of shorting and out of commodities, but damn, there are some awesome opportunities to short oil. Did you know oil futures contracts currently trading extend out to DECEMBER 2025 ?!? This is absolutely not investment advice, since it's something I wouldn't even do myself, but the trajectory of oil prices by 2025 is pretty darn predictable (down down down) and the market isn't pricing it in -- they think oil prices will go up!

However, those far-out futures contracts are very thinly traded, so that does create serious problems with trying to make a bet there, problems I haven't been willing to investigate.
 

Alketi

Member
May 3, 2016
875
2,434
U.S.
Very interesting. I've previously thought that the Model 3 would need a refresh before the self-driving taxi becoming a reality, where an interior cam would need to be included, but I guess it's ready out of the box. :)
An internal camera was the missing piece! HA!!

Elon really thinks robotaxis are going to happen with the current hardware.

Think for a second about why the main form of entry is from a smartphone, why there are no buttons in the car, why the glovebox is accessed through the touchscreen ......

The-A-Team.jpg
 

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,627
Ithaca, NY, USA
I don't... I think their growth RATE is NOT flat... but will rapidly decline over time... they will NOT grow at 50% yoy for 10 years... I believe it's insane to expect that.

Well, myusername, you're wrong. The electric car market as a whole has been growing at 50% y-o-y for quite a long time, and Tesla is tracking that growth rate. Tesla will probably fall very slightly behind that rate, but they are doing their best to keep up with it. No other company can do better (yes, I've checked all of them), so the only reason for falling behind is an increase in the *total number* of other companies involved, which is happening, but not to a significant extent. This only ends when we come close to 100% of cars being electric. We've modeled the terminal state over in one of jhm's threads.

Making a production line faster is hard.... but cloning a factory is easy.

I think IF they become the size of BMW... it won't be until 2025... and by then there will be so much competition, they'll simply be "just another" auto company.
You're wrong. You simply have not done the analysis.

BMW only produces 2.2 million cars per year. This will drop during the disapparance of gasoline cars. Tesla will be producing 500K cars roughly at the end of 2018 (probably a little later). Getting to 2.2 million? Well, it depends on capital raises and certain other decisions, but it should be before 2022.

As for "just another auto company", have you ever *heard* of "brand value"? Apple is "just another smartphone manufacturer", and makes technically inferior smartphones to Samsung, too, but they have a *brand*.

It's actually sort of interesting rebutting your arguments because they're so low-quality.
 

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,627
Ithaca, NY, USA
When will we see dollars raining at Tesla caused by Powerpack/solar panels/...?

They're keeping it close to their chest, but this is what I've gleaned:
- The solar roof is not going to go mass production until middle of next year, so insignificant contribution until 2019.
- Powerwalls and Powerpacks could start making a significant contribution as soon as this quarterly report, but more likely Q1 2018.
 

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,627
Ithaca, NY, USA
Phil LeBeau twitter

Phil LeBeau on Twitter

He is usually 'fair and balanced' when it comes to Tesla.

These numbers don't surprise me and I expect the drop outs will be replaced

That's a pretty sneaky way of reporting numbers. "Unsure" is very different from "unlikely/very unlikely", and he doesn't break out the categories.

You can assume that the "unsure" people are just waiting for a test drive.
 

erthquake

Active Member
Mar 16, 2016
1,191
3,511
California
So let me get this straight...

Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi, who has been super bearish on Tesla, surveyed 286 people, which is ~0.05% of Model 3 reservation holders, and extrapolated that tiny sample size to conclude that one-third of all 550,000+ people will not take delivery (so doesn't say they canceled reservation), after all the raving reviews from everyone, and we still end up with more Model 3 reservations than Tesla can manufacture in the next 18 months?

OK then...

View attachment 239134

It was a survey of Tesla owners. So it could mean they'll just get another S/X. Even if you could extrapolate that to all Tesla owners with Model 3 reservations, it would still have a small overall impact on reservation numbers. Basically meaningless.
 
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