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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Not right. Here's how I calculate how it breaks down:

GVWR is ~6400 lbs - Heavy SUV depreciation rules apply
For this example – Assume you use the vehicle 100% for business to make the math simpler, and assume a $100K purchase price.

- You can write off $25,000 ($25k limit on heavy SUVs) of the cost thanks to the Section 179 deduction on new equipment.
- Then, you will be able to write off another $37,500 thanks to first year bonus depreciation (.50($100,000-$25,000)).
- Then, you follow the regular business depreciation rules to depreciate the remaining cost of $37,500 over 5 years. (20% x $37,500) = $7,500. You take this amount quarterly, so if you buy in third quarter, you'd take half this amount in 2017.

So 1st first-year depreciation write-off equals ($25,000 + $37,500 + $3,750 = $66,250). Now if you are in a high tax bracket like I am this might actually save you 45% in combined Federal and state taxes, so just the depreciation savings will result in a ($66,250 * .45) = ~$30K tax savings.

Add your $7,500 Federal tax credit and your total tax savings the first year is ~$37,500.

Caveats:
You are only supposed to take depreciation based on business use of the vehicle. If you only use it 80% for business your depreciation will only be 80% of the $30K.

You should confirm this with your own CPA.

I have been anxiously waiting several years to make this post........we just configured and ordered our new Model X for my business and will be taking delivery in Portland at the end of September!!!!! Thank you so much @ZenMan for helping us find a path towards making this possible with your vehicle depreciation advice, and thanks to everyone on this board for helping to improve our ability to buy the dips and add as needed to help reach our goals. Best of luck to all!
 
VW’s CEO Knows the Future Is Electric—His Company Isn’t So Sure
Matthias Müller is being buffeted by managers who remain skeptical of his push to downgrade the internal-combustion engine



Almost immediately after taking over in September 2015, Mr. Müller presented a plan to move beyond VW’s huge business in diesel and gasoline vehicles and generate at least 25% of sales from electric cars. He argued VW needed to create a “significant share of revenue” from apps and services.

“What are you doing?” demanded one angry executive during a meeting of top managers last fall, referring to the CEO’s stress on shifting beyond conventional vehicles, according to people present. “You are driving the nails into our own coffin.”

Such exchanges have been frequent and continue to this day, say some company insiders.
This is required reading for all those "when-the-giants-wake-up-Tesla-is-toast" analysts. It turns out it's hard to wake up when you're in denial.

Aaron Levie with Box has great thoughts on the topic of disruption. Two of my favorites:

"Disruption is the art of identifying which parts of the past are no longer relevant to the future, and exploiting that delta at all costs."

"Companies get disrupted because it's too painful to change before it's necessary, and too late when it is" — Aaron Levie, Box
 
VW’s CEO Knows the Future Is Electric—His Company Isn’t So Sure
Matthias Müller is being buffeted by managers who remain skeptical of his push to downgrade the internal-combustion engine



Almost immediately after taking over in September 2015, Mr. Müller presented a plan to move beyond VW’s huge business in diesel and gasoline vehicles and generate at least 25% of sales from electric cars. He argued VW needed to create a “significant share of revenue” from apps and services.

“What are you doing?” demanded one angry executive during a meeting of top managers last fall, referring to the CEO’s stress on shifting beyond conventional vehicles, according to people present. “You are driving the nails into our own coffin.”

Such exchanges have been frequent and continue to this day, say some company insiders.
This is required reading for all those "when-the-giants-wake-up-Tesla-is-toast" analysts. It turns out it's hard to wake up when you're in denial.
It's hard to support a project that will kill your division that you're an executive over... Just like how you see people who are staunchly against a certain government program until their paycheck is on the line, then they're a supporter of it. Mechanical engineers who have 20-30 years experience in designing engines and their associated support systems don't want change, even if it is good. A career change that late in the game is incredibly difficult.

Reminds me of old COBOL programmers who refused to learn new languages even while their mainframe systems were being ported to JAVA based code...
 
Not to be a stickler but I read up on this quite a bit a while back; Ford did leave money on the table in the short term, he could have raised the price every year but chose volume over high margins, and he didn't invent the production line he just basically did it on steroids for that era. And regarding the m3, I think it's entirely possible that it will be profitable once they are cranking out maybe a couple thousand per week, that's what this car and everything about it has been designed to do, be easy to make and quick to get to profits, it's a very different situation than any of their previous cars, and Tesla can pretty much demand good prices from suppliers from the start this time around.

I think you've missed a minor detail. He raised the price the second year, before dropping it to PROFIT on volume. That's not what 22522 is advocating for Tesla.

I agree that the base model 3 is profitable at near full production, but that level of production isn't expected until December.

Again that's not what 22522 is advocating. He wants Tesla to push the base non-optioned version of the model 3:
"The most important thing Tesla can do for their future, and the future of all legitimate longs, is make and sell a lot of the $27,500 version starting this calendar year, 2017."
 
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As I read it, Maserati still thinks that a hybrid is "electrified". They all seem to think that until they notice that the pure EVs are cheaper to build, last longer, cost less to run, etc., etc. Maserati's not there yet. But kudos to them for their decision!
Meantime, Mazda wants to keep perfecting that 3-sided Rotary thingy
Mazda exec presents bold ‘let’s pretend the EV future will never come’ strategy
IMG_0249.JPG

Must be looking for more oil...
 
Thank you for this, but the comparison of Model 3 to the iPhone works only up to a point. Three major distinctions:
  • Tesla is and will continue to grow much faster than Apple did, so the disruption will be quicker.
  • Social media was not as prevalent when iPhone came out, so Model 3 word of mouth is spreading quicker.
    [*]BlackBerry was also an innovative product and its customers loved it, until the iPhone 3G came along. This is not the case with ICE.
  • Reasoning by analogy is useful up to a point because it saves us time, but we should recognize its limitations so we can switch to first principles when required by circumstances.
Grow faster? Two things, it's much harder to build cars than iPhones. If cars were as easy to build as iPhones TSLA current sp would probably be over $600 now.

OTOH the profit from a car is much more than from an iPhone.

Don't love ice cars?! Americans and Germans and other advanced societies love their ice cars!
 
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How are the random lines doing?
I assume you're talking to me... so here you go... untouched for 3 weeks now... looks like that downward trend is real... it's at $315 tomorrow... upper trend at $339... max pain's pretty much right in the middle of the two... unless we find out tomorrow they lost all their cash to solar city or something... it'll probably just wobble between these.

Screen Shot 2017-08-01 at 6.20.19 PM.png


EDIT: and then remember when I said "could be heading into a bear flag" 3 weeks ago... that's what that looks like... with the bottom potential in the $260s... not saying that's what's going to happen... just that'd be the continuation off the first drop.
 
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Some data points for car sales

BMW 3/4 series US Sales 2017 Calendar average - 7850/month
MB C-class US sales 2017 Calendar average - 3950/month

Both down more than 20% July 2017 over July 2016. (Model 3 effect already with people delaying purchases?)

My prediction is Model 3 sales are above both combined in the US by December.

2016 December Sales was about 17,700 combined, but I think they will be off significantly December 2017.

My best guess.

C-Class and 3/4 series combined - 10K - December 2017 Sales
Model 3 - 15K - December 2017 Sales

This will be huge awakening to the German auto industry.
 
I assume you're talking to me... so here you go... untouched for 3 weeks now... looks like that downward trend is real... it's at $315 tomorrow... upper trend at $339... max pain's pretty much right in the middle of the two... unless we find out tomorrow they lost all their cash to solar city or something... it'll probably just wobble between these.

View attachment 239200

EDIT: and then remember when I said "could be heading into a bear flag" 3 weeks ago... that's what that looks like... with the bottom potential in the $260s... not saying that's what's going to happen... just that'd be the continuation off the first drop.

Option pricing shows a 7% move (+/-). So about $21. There are three phases of price movement I will be watching tomorrow. First, during market hours. Second, The time between when the ER (financials) are released and the CC. Finally, during/post CC.

Wish I had an idea of the SPs during these three phases. It will at the very least be *interesting*
 
Option pricing shows a 7% move (+/-). So about $21. There are three phases of price movement I will be watching tomorrow. First, during market hours. Second, The time between when the ER (financials) are released and the CC. Finally, during/post CC.

Wish I had an idea of the SPs during these three phases. It will at the very least be *interesting*
Or completely uneventful.
 
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