2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[mmd]

The earnings report noted that an average net of 1,800 Model 3 reservations per day have been received since the Friday handovers. Keep in mind that the income tax credits will be reduced gradually. Nevertheless, they've played no part in my decision to reserve a Model 3. I would not consider any of the products that competitors have so far proposed.

Reviews of the Model 3 have been great so far. Meanwhile, when hundreds of thousands of Model 3's are in the hands of owners, I would not be surprised if positive word-of-mouth results in a tremendous number of fresh reservations, even if tax credits have run out. Good word-of-mouth is really the most effective form of advertising for any product, and that appears especially true for Tesla.

Alas! If only YOU were the typical "mass market" EV buyer! You are a hardcore Tesla fan, so you shouldn't generalize from what you will do to the general M3 buyers. There are alreasy some who like their Bolt more than their Model S. It is too soon to say how this will evolve once subsidies expire for Tesla but not for others.

Are you unaware that Chevy Bolt was the best selling EV in US in July with 1971 sales, even before a nationwide roll out? Not all car buyers think like you.
Chevrolet Bolt EV Sales Hit New High In July Ahead Of US-Wide Rollout, Volt New Lows

Now Bolt is also the range champion, beating even Tesla Model S. If this trend continues, the 220 mile M3 might be under 200 miles of real life range
Chevrolet Bolt Beats Out Tesla Model S To Become Consumer Reports' Range Champion

• 2016 Tesla Model S 75D, 235 miles achieved vs. 259-mile EPA estimate
• 2016 Tesla Model X 90D, 230 miles achieved vs. 257-mile EPA estimate

..
Additionally, the publication is attempting to point out that the EPA estimate for the Bolt is like on the low side, whereas the estimate for the Tesla was not achievable in testing.

Reviews of Model 3 so far are from the favorable half-journs invited by Tesla, reviewed under Tesla supervision. We don't know the unbiased and unpaid reviews yet. I'm sure driving dynamic will get positive reviews. The spartan interior and missing/expensive options are the Achilles' heel here.

 

[22522]

It's incorrect that of Dahl's research work is with NMC batteries.

?
Supercharged success: Battery researcher Jeff Dahn wins Herzberg Gold Medal

?
Why do lithium-ion batteries die? (long)

Yes, but I heard shoe on shin, almost for sure.

If you think about reuse recycle path. NMC might serve better than NCA.

This is speculation based on shoe on shin audio signature.

I think we can just write it off to bad audio, and go forward.

 

[ggies07]

apparently elections do indeed matter- to everyone:
EPA chief Scott Pruitt can publicly downplay CO2's role in global warming, EPA panel concludes

"<
The EPA's Scientific Integrity Committee convened a review panel to look into Pruitt's comment following the Sierra Club's complaint.

The panel concluded that Pruitt did not violate the Scientific Integrity Policy because it "explicitly protects differing opinions," according to a draft letter to the Sierra Club from the panel. The draft was obtained by conservative media outlets including the Washington Examiner and Washington Free Beacon.

"In his response, the Administrator expressed his opinion regarding contributors to global warming and called for more debate, review, and analysis as a precursor to any future EPA policy decision on the matter," wrote Thomas H. Sinks, Jr., director of the EPA's Office of the Science Advisor, in the letter.
>"

This really pisses me off. damn.

 

[22522]

Alas! If only YOU were the typical "mass market" EV buyer! You are a hardcore Tesla fan, so you shouldn't generalize from what you will do to the general M3 buyers. There are alreasy some who like their Bolt more than their Model S. It is too soon to say how this will evolve once subsidies expire for Tesla but not for others.

Are you unaware that Chevy Bolt was the best selling EV in US in July with 1971 sales, even before a nationwide roll out? Not all car buyers think like yourself.
Chevrolet Bolt EV Sales Hit New High In July Ahead Of US-Wide Rollout, Volt New Lows
Now Bolt is also the range champion, beating even Tesla Model S.
Chevrolet Bolt Beats Out Tesla Model S To Become Consumer Reports' Range Champion

Reviews of Model 3 so far are from the favorable half-journs invited by Tesla, reviewed under Tesla supervision. We don't know the unbiased and unpaid reviews yet. I'm sure driving dynamic will get positive reviews. The spartan interior and missing/expensive options are the Achilles' heel here.

I think Tesla can address the product experience issues.

 

[Spidy]

Just checked out Mark Spiegel's twitter what crazy stuff he would be posting after yesterdays earnings report and found this link. Is there any more information on this?

Warning: Blood

Another accident in China, involving an Tesla Model S and tow truck.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Alas! If only YOU were the typical "mass market" EV buyer! You are a hardcore Tesla fan, so you shouldn't generalize from what you will do to the general M3 buyers. There are alreasy some who like their Bolt more than their Model S. It is too soon to say how this will evolve once subsidies expire for Tesla but not for others.

A competitor would need to be attractive and available in volume to matter. If it's attractive and available in volume, the incentives would expire within months for the competitor too.

But it doesn't seem like it will matter much, the incentives are being wasted by the big car makers on hybrids and compliance cars.

Are you unaware that Chevy Bolt was the best selling EV in US in July with 1971 sales, even before a nationwide roll out? Not all car buyers think like you.
Chevrolet Bolt EV Sales Hit New High In July Ahead Of US-Wide Rollout, Volt New Lows
Now Bolt is also the range champion, beating even Tesla Model S.
Chevrolet Bolt Beats Out Tesla Model S To Become Consumer Reports' Range Champion

Massive discounting will do that. But even if the Bolt was a success, it won't be available in volume.

Reviews of Model 3 so far are from the favorable half-journs invited by Tesla, reviewed under Tesla supervision. We don't know the unbiased and unpaid reviews yet. I'm sure driving dynamic will get positive reviews. The spartan interior and missing/expensive options are the Achilles' heel here.

The spartan interior will be loved more than it is hated. And the Model 3 seems to be attractively priced against the 3-series, without incentives.

 

[MXWing]

YUP - no bear manipulation at all.

 

[EinSV]

Just checked out Mark Spiegel's twitter what crazy stuff he would be posting after yesterdays earnings report and found this link. Is there any more information on this?

Warning: Blood

Another accident in China, involving an Tesla Model S and tow truck.

There was a car? That got in an accident? Yes, definitely newsworthy.

 

[Reciprocity]

Alas! If only YOU were the typical "mass market" EV buyer! You are a hardcore Tesla fan, so you shouldn't generalize from what you will do to the general M3 buyers. There are alreasy some who like their Bolt more than their Model S. It is too soon to say how this will evolve once subsidies expire for Tesla but not for others.

Are you unaware that Chevy Bolt was the best selling EV in US in July with 1971 sales, even before a nationwide roll out? Not all car buyers think like you.
Chevrolet Bolt EV Sales Hit New High In July Ahead Of US-Wide Rollout, Volt New Lows
Now Bolt is also the range champion, beating even Tesla Model S.
Chevrolet Bolt Beats Out Tesla Model S To Become Consumer Reports' Range Champion

Reviews of Model 3 so far are from the favorable half-journs invited by Tesla, reviewed under Tesla supervision. We don't know the unbiased and unpaid reviews yet. I'm sure driving dynamic will get positive reviews. The spartan interior and missing/expensive options are the Achilles' heel here.

As per usual, your information is flawed and biased to your own detriment. The first month of a new quarter is generally when Tesla typically delivers cars overseas. You can reference the quarterly earnings call transcript from yesterday"

And then we do batch cars, so that we'll make typically at the beginning of the quarter, we'll make cars for Europe and Asia. And then we'll make cars for the East Coast of North America then the West Coast of North America. And that's generally sequence within a quarter. Then you'll see someone, right, something where they think they've uncovered some gotcha where there were very few Tesla's registered in the given country in a particular month, I guess because none of them arrived. So this is meaningless extrapolation.

Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

Bolt (GM) will run out fed tax incentives about the same time Tesla does:

US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

Of note, Nissan will run out about the same time as well. Also of note, Toyota, Ford and BMW are not far behind. One big difference is that Tesla is going to land about 200,000-400,000 cars during the phase out. Those others will not get anywhere near that and they will have squandered a great opportunity to have the government and tax payers help jumpstart their EV efforts.[/quote]

 

[Reciprocity]

There was a car? That got in an accident? Yes, definitely newsworthy.

Wait, it only happens about a million times a year.. oh, wait, I get what you did there.

 

[DurandalAI]

Just checked out Mark Spiegel's twitter what crazy stuff he would be posting after yesterdays earnings report and found this link. Is there any more information on this?

Warning: Blood

Another accident in China, involving an Tesla Model S and tow truck.

Let us all see how long it takes for Mark Smeagol to ban us from his Twitter.. lol.

 

[MXWing]

Alas! If only YOU were the typical "mass market" EV buyer! You are a hardcore Tesla fan, so you shouldn't generalize from what you will do to the general M3 buyers. There are alreasy some who like their Bolt more than their Model S. It is too soon to say how this will evolve once subsidies expire for Tesla but not for others.

Are you unaware that Chevy Bolt was the best selling EV in US in July with 1971 sales, even before a nationwide roll out? Not all car buyers think like you.
Chevrolet Bolt EV Sales Hit New High In July Ahead Of US-Wide Rollout, Volt New Lows
Now Bolt is also the range champion, beating even Tesla Model S.
Chevrolet Bolt Beats Out Tesla Model S To Become Consumer Reports' Range Champion

Reviews of Model 3 so far are from the favorable half-journs invited by Tesla, reviewed under Tesla supervision. We don't know the unbiased and unpaid reviews yet. I'm sure driving dynamic will get positive reviews. The spartan interior and missing/expensive options are the Achilles' heel here.

Heyy... look at what is in my inbox. If I didn't "know any better" - I surely could be tempted to buy a Bolt for 9.5k off MSRP.

-6000 sticker negotiation. Piece of cake
-500 Farm Bureau discount
-3000 Private Offer on top
plus 90 days of no payment. Probably 0 interest as well.

Even a maximum Bolt for $34,010 BEFORE any incentives - I STILL DO NOT WANT IT GM can't *give this thing to me*.

So yeah... Chevy better empty the lots *while they still can* and find a sucker who isn't me.

 

[Starno]

Nice video of the day

 

[DurandalAI]

Heyy... look at what is in my inbox. If I didn't "know any better" - I surely could be tempted to buy a Bolt for 9.5k off MSRP.

Even a maximum Bolt for $34,010 BEFORE any incentives - I STILL DO NOT WANT IT GM can't *give this thing to me*.

So yeah... Chevy better empty the lots *while they still can* and find a sucker who isn't me.

View attachment 239488

I'd take a brand new Chevy Bolt for $10k, honestly. But that's about what it is worth to me. It would be a longer-range replacement for my Leaf.

 

[Drax7]

Am I correct in thinking your calculations are to show what stock price would be once this level of production and profit is reached,
excluding whatever future year expectations may be at that point? If tha is the case, then based on current SP, I would guesstimate
a SP of at least 1,000 by that time, with $4 - 500 from the expectation of even much higher revenue and profits in the 3 years to follow.

Right, actually once they reach 5000 cars/week and gross margins are at 25%, as they expect,
The stock price may reflect a $100 billion market cap. If they execute according to plan
We could reach that level within 6 months .

 

[Reciprocity]

Heyy... look at what is in my inbox. If I didn't "know any better" - I surely could be tempted to buy a Bolt for 9.5k off MSRP.

-6000 sticker negotiation. Piece of cake
-500 Farm Bureau discount
-3000 Private Offer on top
plus 90 days of no payment. Probably 0 interest as well.

Even a maximum Bolt for $34,010 BEFORE any incentives - I STILL DO NOT WANT IT GM can't *give this thing to me*.

So yeah... Chevy better empty the lots *while they still can* and find a sucker who isn't me.
View attachment 239488

You forgot free oil changes.

 

[Curt Renz]

...Once the subsidies end and more competitors arrive, this rate will evaporate much faster.

...There are alreasy some who like their Bolt more than their Model S. It is too soon to say how this will evolve once subsidies expire for Tesla but not for others...

Thank you for your warning.

It has inspired me this afternoon to ask the three people who represent me in Congress to increase the number of electric cars per manufacturer eligible for the tax credits.

I suggest that others here do the same.

Now I'm going over to the Model 3 Owners Club to offer the same suggestion. Thanks for getting the ball rolling.

EDIT: I like MP3Mike's suggestion that the number of tax credits be spread across all manufacturers as a single total. I've sent an amended request to those who represent me in Congress.

 

[Ugliest1]

I'll be ordering black when my turn comes. I have always had a problem with authority figures telling me what to do and am of the opinion that rules were made to be broken.

You rebel.

 

[MP3Mike]

It has inspired me this afternoon to ask the three people who represent me in Congress to increase the number of electric cars per manufacturer eligible for the tax credits.

If they are going to change it they should change it to limit the total number of credits to something like 2,000,000 across all manufacturers. That way they will actually have to work for them and compete with others to get as many as they can. (And Tesla can take the majority of them since they are so far ahead of everyone else.)

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Thank you for your warning.

It has inspired me this afternoon to ask the three people who represent me in Congress to increase the number of electric cars per manufacturer eligible for the tax credits.

I suggest that others here do the same.

Now I'm going over to the Model 3 Owners Club to offer the same suggestion. Thanks for getting the ball rolling.

EDIT: I like MP3Mike's suggestion that the number of tax credits be spread across all manufacturers as a single total. I've sent an amended request to those who represent me in Congress.

Chevrolet Bolt Sets Consumer Reports' Electric-Vehicle Range Record

Bolt is still an econobox (not a Model 3 competitor):

The Bolt gets good marks for range (of course), agility, and its quiet cabin. It gets dinged for its overly squishy brake-pedal feel, long charging time, choppy ride, and uncomfortable seats.