2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[jbcarioca]

For obvious reasons, Texas has sun and wind (my electricity is 100% wind, I may have mentioned) which destroy the long tailpipe argument.

Tesla also has an AI office in Austin ( A recent UT grad turned down an interview there (leaving interview spots for others) for graduate work at Stanford).

SpaceX has some McAllen engine test facilities. And there needs to be a hyperloop from Dallas to Austin.

In short, Texas should win because Texas is more like Mars.

I am torn between rating your post 'informative' or 'funny'. Funny won.
Most non-Texans seem not to know that West Texas has the highest concentration of wind energy production in the US. There is potential for much more, not to mention photovoltaic, that now is much cheaper too, and most of Texas is superb photovoltaic area.
Any Texas GF could easily be 100% wind/solar, which could be a quite substantial economic benefit, not to mention environmental benefits.
We only need more Texas Superchargers, for example (I10 Fort Stockton and further west into AZ) and out-voting those pesky car dealers! 'Course we must replace the TX Congressional control to do that...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I don't think people realize yet that the combined ENTERPRISE VALUE of automakers is more than $2 trillion.

This is just one of the several multi-trillion industries Tesla is disrupting simultaneously and at an unprecedented rate.

Tesla's total addressable market is a lot more than estimated and it will get there quicker than estimated.

 

[ggies07]

Were it to be Texas It is most likely to be somewhere around the DFW metro area

Agreed. The Alliance area in Fort Worth has plenty of room.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I don't think people realize yet that the non-dilutive debt raise at expected ~5.5-6.0% yield means A LOT to the company's valuation.

In DCF terms: up to now, market participants were using pre-revenue (Model 3) venture capital investment discount rates (20-30%) to value Tesla.

A successful debt capital raise at such a low yield would dramatically reduce the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of Tesla.

Combined with a successful Model 3 production ramp, which would also increase the credibility of Elon's future predictions...

I can't even

 

[kenliles]

Oh boy
TSLA upgraded to bi-polar now!
Tesla investors need a 'bipolar outlook' on the stock, analyst says
"<
Jim McCaughan, CEO of Principal Global Investors, said that the majority of the market thinks Tesla will be a big success but it's not so black and white.
"The thing with Tesla is it's either going to be a dominant force in its industry or it's going to somehow get competed away. And if you're looking at it as a stock, you need to have a very … bipolar outlook," McCaughan told CNBC in a TV interview on Tuesday.
[ ]
"The market is obviously going for the big one, the big success. I would argue that from a bondholder point of view it's actually still quite risky because there are pretty big guns with a lot of resources, from Mercedes, BMW, GM, coming into that," McCaughan said.
>"


Or slow disruptive conversion of TSLA holdings into bipolar silver 'n gold perhaps?

 

[jbcarioca]

I don't think people realize yet that the combined ENTERPRISE VALUE of automakers is more than $2 trillion.

This is just of the many multi-trillion industries Tesla is disrupting at an unprecedented rate.

Tesla's total addressable market is a lot more than estimated.

Just to consider: not only automakers but, residential/commercial roofing, utility peaker plants, island power (meaning anyplace around the globe that presently must import petroleum/coal/gas to produce power). The addressable markets are so huge that they are only realistic for TSLA if TSLA serves as a Proof-of-concept. The growth rates will be so astronomical that a global restructuring of those businesses will happen. of course, that must happen if the world as we know it is to survive.

As investors we must admit that the notion of 'addressable market' does not really apply. If Tesla becomes successful it will be one catalyst for nearly complete revolution in global energy production, distribution and use.

Also consider, if technological progress in energy storage improves as present theory suggests it could we might reach >500kWh/kg within a decade. If that happens the global air transport industry could shift to predominately electric. Airbus is working hard, now even Boeing is experimenting. At that level we suddenly have viable electric ships.

We need not actually believe any of that. We only need to understand that, thanks to Tesla, we now are at rough price parity with ICE for cars. Even now, with Model 3 real, most observers do not believe it. The future is pretty obvious now. That does not mean the risks of TSLA have reduced; those risks are still gigantic because the entire industrial world is quite near top the realization that their own survival is at stake. Tiny TSLA is the 'canary in the coal mine'. Our risk is that the canary could die.Obviously I'm betting on the canary.

 

[aznt1217]

I had no idea BERK had a Renewable Energy Company. I think it's time Warren stops messing around and just gives money to Elon

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Oh boy
TSLA upgraded to bi-polar now!
Tesla investors need a 'bipolar outlook' on the stock, analyst says
"<
Jim McCaughan, CEO of Principal Global Investors, said that the majority of the market thinks Tesla will be a big success but it's not so black and white.
"The thing with Tesla is it's either going to be a dominant force in its industry or it's going to somehow get competed away. And if you're looking at it as a stock, you need to have a very … bipolar outlook," McCaughan told CNBC in a TV interview on Tuesday.
[ ]
"The market is obviously going for the big one, the big success. I would argue that from a bondholder point of view it's actually still quite risky because there are pretty big guns with a lot of resources, from Mercedes, BMW, GM, coming into that," McCaughan said.
>"


Or slow disruptive conversion of TSLA holdings into bipolar silver 'n gold perhaps?

It's stunning to me how insightless the people who are not insightful are.

People either know a lot about Tesla, or they know less than nothing: They know the FUD.

 

[ggr]

Project Tim = tim cook = apple ?

Or one of the Tims involved in https://www.lw.com/thoughtLeadershi...n-projects-benefit-from-enhanced-oil-recovery because http://www.durandnow.com/Project_Tim_Highlights-page-002.jpg mentions EOR.

Enhanced Oil Recovery does not smell like Apple nor Tesla though... Maybe it is the fossil fuel industry with Softbank's $100b fonds and Toyota and Honda creating some anti-EV bastard together with Chevron ?

I sure hope its tesla instead...

"There are some who call me ... Tim!" -- Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

 

[jbcarioca]

I had no idea BERK had a Renewable Energy Company. I think it's time Warren stops messing around and just gives money to Elon

Don't forget BYD. Yep, Warren should be investing in TSLA too. Ain't no dividends but there is huge value!

 

[kenliles]

It's stunning to me how insightless the people who are not insightful are.

People either know a lot about Tesla, or they know less than nothing: They know the FUD.

IOW - bipolar

 

[ggr]

SpaceX has some McAllen engine test facilities.

And don't forget they are building a private spaceport near Brownsville.

 

[myusername]

I don't think people realize yet that the combined ENTERPRISE VALUE of automakers is more than $2 trillion.

This is just one of the several multi-trillion industries Tesla is disrupting simultaneously and at an unprecedented rate.

Tesla's total addressable market is a lot more than estimated and it will get there quicker than estimated.

shall we iterate?

Energy Storage: negative gross margins in 2017 so far... revenues so small it's basically lumped into a category masked by Solar City

Energy Production:
"Additionally, Tesla and Vivint are both decreasing their portion of third-party solar sales, as they focus more on short-term profitability."
Sunrun continues market share gains in Q2 2017

does that sound like Global Domination to you?

Auto: "1800 reservations per day!" -- wow... that sounds like a lot. except that was followed by " -- since the release party on Friday"... so 3 days at 1800 per day is now the official number?... while the 1.5 years preceding this release party the reservations had increased by 75k?

and now Elon is out hocking these ideas?... the stock shoots up! and Argus says: "It's time to buy" based on demand?

"According to Selesky, it’s Tesla’s robust Model 3 demand that finally convinced Argus to upgrade the stock to Buy. Tesla recently reportedthat it is receiving 1,800 Model 3 orders per day without Tesla spending any meaningful money on marketing or advertising."

1800 per day for 3 days is NOT how you do brain stuff.

this is so awesome... shoot this thing through the roof.

 

[jbcarioca]

It's stunning to me how insightless the people who are not insightful are.

People either know a lot about Tesla, or they know less than nothing: They know the FUD.

Ture, but that does not make the McCaughan comments entirely wrong. Within the next two years all the leading automotive companies will be producing BEV's. Most of the leading energy equipment providers will be producing batteries, wind generators, photovoltaics and other paraphernalia. research resources will be devoted in vastly higher levels than they now are.

Even if the Trump administration opts out, the world has already opted in, so the most probable outcome is that the US rapidly loses global industrial leadership TSLA certainly will survive, but a trifle of bipolarity won't harm us. We are with TSLA acting as David in the fight with Goliath. We hope David wins even though our David's political environment insists that David actually doesn't even have a rock, much less a slingshot.

My analogy I think is apt, but you might not agree,.

 

[Krugerrand]

it's not passive by any means... and it's not targeted at @Cattledog ... it's a general refute to the notion that Nissan is simply pure evil and the Leaf is just another form of Satan.

No regular on this forum has ever said that about the Leaf. Now look at who's being disingenuous.

@Krugerrand do you think the Leaf is bad for the world? and if not, do you agree with me that thrashing it on this board is disingenuous to the purpose of Tesla's primary objective?

In and of itself, no. It also doesn't do for the world what it could if it was more. Clearly. If someone gives a half-hearted attempt, they get half-hearted praise.

People stating it's less than appealing in its styling (which it is), that it doesn't have long range travel capabilities (which it doesn't), that it doesn't have fleet learning and OTA firmware updates and, and, and (which it doesn't) is not disingenuous to the purpose of Tesla's primary objective.

So, that would be a no. I don't agree with you.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Ture, but that does not make the McCaughan comments entirely wrong. Within the next two years all the leading automotive companies will be producing BEV's. Most of the leading energy equipment providers will be producing batteries, wind generators, photovoltaics and other paraphernalia. research resources will be devoted in vastly higher levels than they now are.

Even if the Trump administration opts out, the world has already opted in, so the most probable outcome is that the US rapidly loses global industrial leadership TSLA certainly will survive, but a trifle of bipolarity won't harm us. We are with TSLA acting as David in the fight with Goliath. We hope David wins even though our David's political environment insists that David actually doesn't even have a rock, much less a slingshot.

My analogy I think is apt, but you might not agree,.

I agree with your analogy.

I also think, however, that you may be underestimating the administration's bipolarity.

Once Trump realizes he's on the "loser" side, he'll quickly switch sides and declare himself the winner.

Remember solar panels on the wall?

 

[JRP3]

Seriously too much commentary with one specific clueless individual clogging up this thread. I know it's hard but I do wish some of you could control yourselves and limit the interaction for the good of us all.

 

[jbcarioca]

...
I also think, however, that you may be underestimating the administration's bipolarity.

Once Trump realizes he's on the "loser" side, he'll quickly switch sides and declare himself the winner.

...

We all must hope that you're correct. I certainly do. When we're expanding coal production on Federal land and exporting the results we might not be convinced that the attitude will change with Mr. Zinke remaining. Stranger things have happened so there still is hope. I cannot plan on hope, though.

 

[Krugerrand]

State environmental minister visited Grohmann Automation.

Should have been a great opportunity for Tesla to promote themselves with the whole Diesel scandal going on and the Model 3 launch. But somehow the PR department really managed to screw that up. So the report of the public TV stations starts out how Tesla was not interested in any interview and that the press relations officer even followed them around outside company grounds. Honestly have no idea what they were thinking, I mean they probably just wanted a short snipped for their 2 minute segment... Looks like they got a hold of charimen of the work council, which had good things to say, but not sure that's the best impression.

input-aktuell.de

Lohnstruktur bei Tesla-Grohmann in Prüm: Gewerkschaft rechnet mit langem Prozess | Trier | SWR Aktuell

SWR-Wirtschaftsredakteur Marco Koch: "Mit Tesla auf der Überholspur" | Rheinland-Pfalz | SWR Aktuell

Considering how often the media gets things wrong, distorts or outright lies...I'll take the whole thing with a grain of salt.

 

[Zaxxon]

I still think that dilution depends on the stock price. If TSLA hits $2000 by February, I'm pretty damn sure Tesla will issue some stock.

Uh, yes. And they'll issue me a Model X and a Model 3 while they're at it.

It would seem to me that the man who brought us

S
3
X
Y

could very very easily be the man who brings us

Tesla
In
Michigan

"There are some who call me ... Tim!" -- Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

Nuts; ggr beat me to it...