2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Sparky]

I think everyone is watching M3 deliveries and "forgetting" about S&X deliveries. IMHO, the focus of this (investors) forum has completely shifted. Coming toward the end of the Q all eyes used to be on what was the latest VIN, lots of tracking of the sales of S&X. That has fallen by the wayside, with lots of attention toward M3. Very different this quarter....like everyone has forgotten to follow S&X*. I am expecting strong S&X numbers, modest M3 numbers, burgeoning TE numbers. This will be offset by big CapEx's (Superchargers, Model 3 ramp) and also SCTY charges and bond retirements.

*except in Europe, and those are good.

I'm looking for X sales to be the brightest spot of the Q. Since I just leased a new X this is totally anecdotal and full of confirmation bias but:
I now often see X's outnumbering S's at many of the Supercharger locations in CA I stop at.
On my frequent drives north, I've always noticed the Tesla car carriers coming down the I-5. But now with equal or greater X's than S's.
The X is an amazing vehicle, packed with so many cool and practical features, and not subject to any M3 Osborning.
I expect the China market to start lapping them up.

 

[JRP3]

OH BABY!!! OH BABY!!! OH BABY!!!

Why so excited by 6 day old tweets?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Why so excited by 6 day old tweets?

It was the first time I saw it, it's a very significant piece of positive information, and I didn't see it posted here.

 

[Bobfitz1]

It was the first time I saw it, it's a very significant piece of positive information, and I didn't see it posted here.

Significant? Elon was just repeating Teslas future plans for GF2 to swat some FUD flies away.
Where TE will go with GF1 over next few years is VERY significant. Just this tweet isn't.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

This is absurd way to look at this as far as I am concerned. The rules are in place and has been for quite a while. The big auto is saving a ton of money avoiding expense of developing compelling EVs, while paying Tesla 50 cents for a dollar worth of credits which enable them to sell gas guzzlers and continue to sabotage the goal of electrification of transport. The audacity of this statement by Big Auto is mind boggling (an understatement).

It's even more absurd that the chairwoman of CARB would make such an inflammatory statement and NOT highlight your point about how cleaning the air is the objective. That bloomberg article took that quote out of context to support its spin (or agenda). I think we're going to see it reposted across the news this week.

 

[elasalle]

GM, not Tesla, is a better bet on the autonomous vehicle future right now, Deutsche Bank says this is also making the rounds ...

 

[AlMc]

GM, not Tesla, is a better bet on the autonomous vehicle future right now, Deutsche Bank says this is also making the rounds ...

There was also a big segment on the Today Show this morning and an NBC correspondent was going to be a passenger in a 'self driving' Caddy that started a cross country journey using AD. Tesla was briefly mentioned and the Brown car/accident was shown.

Self-driving car begins coast-to-coast trip at TODAY studio

 

[dirtyofries]

Doesn't the Caddy only work in very limited areas with high resolution mapping?

What a farce.

There was also a big segment on the Today Show this morning and an NBC correspondent was going to be a passenger in a 'self driving' Caddy that started a cross country journey using AD. Tesla was briefly mentioned and the Brown car/accident was shown.

 

[AlMc]

Doesn't the Caddy only work in very limited areas with high resolution mapping?

What a farce.

Agree, but it is a reason there is pressure on the TSLA SP today

 

[avoigt]

In Germany the Tesla Partner Lichtblick is still waiting for the Powerpack to arrive. Orders are piling....

Update: Tesla announced that first PW2 have been delivered in July 2017. New orders placed now will be delivered next year. Some German customers confirmed they received the PW2.

 

[Zaxxon]

I wrote up some thoughts on similarities b/t Tesla/Amazon and Musk/Bezos after reading The Everything Store this weekend. Posted those in a separate thread here so as to avoid derailing this one.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Significant? Elon was just repeating Teslas future plans for GF2 to swat some FUD flies away.
Where TE will go with GF1 over next few years is VERY significant. Just this tweet isn't.

I respectfully disagree.
Solarcity was bought by Tesla one year ago, and things weren't going well. In these months, news about Tesla Solar were still not really positive (solar roof is late, afaik no one beside EM and JB has it) and while cars and batteries were already under Tesla management, the whole solar part needed restructuring. GF2 only recently started production, after delays. A tweet, now, from EM is to me very good news, like light at the end of a tunnel. I never heard "alien dreadnaught" in relation to solar panels and cells, for example. Tesla Solar is still very underdeveloped.

 

[racer26]

There was also a big segment on the Today Show this morning and an NBC correspondent was going to be a passenger in a 'self driving' Caddy that started a cross country journey using AD. Tesla was briefly mentioned and the Brown car/accident was shown.

Self-driving car begins coast-to-coast trip at TODAY studio

Cadillac CT6's supercruise is only on divided grade separated highways and requires HD maps and GPS precision to 4 inches.

It does what AP1 did 2 years ago, though admittedly it's driver monitoring aspect may prevent it from having an incident like that of Mr. Brown.

It is no more a self-driving car than any Tesla has been for 2 years.

 

[Mike Smith]

GM, not Tesla, is a better bet on the autonomous vehicle future right now, Deutsche Bank says this is also making the rounds ...

GM is extremely loose with what they describe as a 'real self-driving car' (apparently they've already done it!). From Sept 12:

GM's Cruise Automation touts Bolt EV as 'first real self-driving car'

 

[AlMc]

Agree, but it is a reason there is pressure on the TSLA SP today

Cadillac CT6's supercruise is only on divided grade separated highways and requires HD maps and GPS precision to 4 inches.

It does what AP1 did 2 years ago, though admittedly it's driver monitoring aspect may prevent it from having an incident like that of Mr. Brown.

It is no more a self-driving car than any Tesla has been for 2 years.

Agree, but it is a reason there is pressure on the TSLA SP today

 

[jhm]

GM is extremely loose with what they describe as a 'real self-driving car' (apparently they've already done it!). From Sept 12:

GM's Cruise Automation touts Bolt EV as 'first real self-driving car'

Once someone gets hurt, they're going to regret calling it "self-driving," which is to say, "GM driving." We've already seen Tesla get beat up for "auto-pilot," which makes no claims that is can be relied upon for unsupervised travel.

Besides, what if the key slips out?

 

[GoTslaGo]

I'm looking for X sales to be the brightest spot of the Q. Since I just leased a new X this is totally anecdotal and full of confirmation bias but:
I now often see X's outnumbering S's at many of the Supercharger locations in CA I stop at.
On my frequent drives north, I've always noticed the Tesla car carriers coming down the I-5. But now with equal or greater X's than S's.
The X is an amazing vehicle, packed with so many cool and practical features, and not subject to any M3 Osborning.
I expect the China market to start lapping them up.

Agreed! My wife and I joke that a Tesla is the official car of my kids' school... there's just so many of them there... and a large proportion are Model Xs.

Also I was watching the Model 3 threads with VIN and pics. One post took a screen shot of a drone flight over the Fremont factory showing all the new cars in the back. Everyone was obsessing over how to find and count the Model 3s. I was just amazed by how full the lot was with obviously new Teslas, stretching into multiple parking areas... a large proportion of which were obviously Model Xs.

 

[Mike Smith]

Here's some pretty hilarious FUD from The Street if anyone needs a laugh. The author is using a picture of a model 3 with duct tape on it (obviously a test vehicle) as evidence that Model 3's are 'falling apart'.

This Tesla Model 3 Looks Like It's Falling Apart -- Here's Why That's Not Good

 

[dirtyofries]

Here's some pretty hilarious FUD from The Street if anyone needs a laugh. The author is using a picture of a model 3 with duct tape on it (obviously a test vehicle) as evidence that Model 3's are 'falling apart'.

This Tesla Model 3 Looks Like It's Falling Apart -- Here's Why That's Not Good

Wow, that is some BS right there. Talk about misleading garbage!

 

[ggies07]

GM is extremely loose with what they describe as a 'real self-driving car' (apparently they've already done it!). From Sept 12:

GM's Cruise Automation touts Bolt EV as 'first real self-driving car'

That's funny, considering that the Air Force only sees Tesla as the rightful player right now:

U.S. Air Force is buying a Tesla Model X to study its ‘fully self-driving’ capability

“The Air Force has determined that the Tesla brand meets its research project requirements as it is the only fully-electric vehicle commercially produced that offers 100% autonomous driving. There are no vehicles produced globally that are powered by internal combustion, diesel, hybrid, or battery-hybrid power trains that can meet the requirement, thus the decision from the Air Force to specify a 100% battery-electric vehicle.”